Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 363 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #7,241
  • Mar 13, 2016 10:30am Mar 13, 2016 10:30am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Yes, brand new Daily demand zone being created on AUDUSD, room to reach opposing supply zone from which some shorts could start happening. Cheers, Alfonso
Do you mean this one?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 82 KB
  • #7,242
  • Mar 13, 2016 11:28am Mar 13, 2016 11:28am
Hi Alfonso and community,

I was watching your video
Inserted Video
(How to Draw Supply and Demand trading levels and Trendlines in a mechanical way) around 2:02:04 you mention about when a level has basing candles where a candles' low is lower than the previous candle low that its is more a flag or bear/bull trap than a level. Would you mind clarifying as the level you identify above seems to have the same thing (picture attached) but is valid. Would you mind advising/clarifying as I am sure I am missing something

Thank you in advance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-13_1610.png Size: 354 KB
  • #7,243
  • Mar 13, 2016 3:24pm Mar 13, 2016 3:24pm
Quoting lakis071051
{quote} Do you mean this one? {image}
No, I don't mean that demand on AUDUSD, that was created long time ago... I meant one higher since I said "being created", the lower one you drew is confirmed.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,244
  • Mar 13, 2016 3:26pm Mar 13, 2016 3:26pm
Quoting Keenk123
Hi Alfonso and community, I was watching your video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRjd...ndex=1&list=WL (How to Draw Supply and Demand trading levels and Trendlines in a mechanical way) around 2:02:04 you mention about when a level has basing candles where a candles' low is lower than the previous candle low that its is more a flag or bear/bull trap than a level. Would you mind clarifying as the level you identify above seems to have the same thing (picture attached) but is valid. Would you mind advising/clarifying as I am sure...
Hello, I just saw your picture... I don't see zones as flags, traps or no traps, an imbalance is such if it removes an opposing zone or breaks a trendline, that's all I need to know, you can call it a flag, a trap or a crab... I think I once read there were crab candlestick formations, crazy

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,245
  • Mar 13, 2016 3:31pm Mar 13, 2016 3:31pm
Quoting lakis071051
{quote} I think we must speak all the same "language". The definition in the international bibliography f. ex. Martin Pring is: "Valid peaks and troughs are created when the price moves to a new high or low for the move, or when a reaction to the then-prevailing trend retraces approximately one-third to two-thirds of the previous move". On the NZDUSD-H4, the previous move was: From 0.66221 to 0.67049 = 82.8 pips, 1/3 of this move is 27.6 pips and 2/3 = 55.2 pips. The retracement to this move from 0.67049 to 0.66731 down is 37.8 pips, so the retracement...
I don't know who that Martin Pring is, he is probably a great person and trader, I just don't have the pleasure to know him. But a clear valley is a clear valley, nothing else. It has to have a clear drop with ERC candles, a clear base and a clear rally with ERC candles. That has not happened on that chart, so it's not a valley. Mr Martin or you wants to see it as a valley? No problem, my rules don't consider that a valley. You can follow his definition of a valley or mine, that's up to you. All I can tell you is that that formation is not a clear drop base rally, no power in the drop so it's not possible. But like I said, it's up to you to follow whichever definition you want... but if you do follow that one from Mr. Martin Ping or anybody else, PLEASE test it over months and months like I did with mine. Then use it on your trading plan, never before.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,246
  • Mar 13, 2016 4:49pm Mar 13, 2016 4:49pm
Hy Guys!

I'm on the learning phase of the supply-demand strategy.
I trade on a demo account since 2014, whit more and less sucsess..

English is not my native language, so i have some difficulties to read and undestand the strategy of this thread.
I think I wachd all the videos on youtube, from Alfonso Moreno, and a few from Keyser Soze and ofc fromSam Seiden to.

I have a question:

On this picture i marked two levels wich i think is good for a trade, but i dont known which one has removed the demand from the left site?


http://kepfeltoltes.hu/view/160313/U...toltes.hu_.png

(i removed the pending order from the bottom)
  • #7,247
  • Mar 14, 2016 12:33am Mar 14, 2016 12:33am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello, I just saw your picture... I don't see zones as flags, traps or no traps, an imbalance is such if it removes an opposing zone or breaks a trendline, that's all I need to know, you can call it a flag, a trap or a crab... I think I once read there were crab candlestick formations, crazy Cheers, Alfonso
Hi Alfonso,
Thank you for your reply. Was querying because you mentioned in your vid you would not choose that level because the low closed lower than the previous and from your backtesting you have noticed these levels were not as strong. Was just wondering whether there was a logically explanation why or just an intricacy that you have found
  • #7,248
  • Mar 14, 2016 1:10am Mar 14, 2016 1:10am
Dear Alphonso, please find my analysis on USD JYP. Monthly down, weekly down, daily sideways as of now. If price pulls back to the daily supply as marked in my chart can we take a set and forget trade? Please correct if my analysis is wrong.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYMonthly.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYWeekly.png Size: 36 KB
  • #7,249
  • Mar 14, 2016 3:58am Mar 14, 2016 3:58am
Dear Alphonso, will this counter-trend set up on USDTRY be valid...please share your feedback
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRYMonthly.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRYWeekly.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRYDaily.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRYH4.png Size: 34 KB
  • #7,250
  • Mar 14, 2016 4:40am Mar 14, 2016 4:40am
Daily supply playing out on NZD/CAD 0.9118. New D1 supply created at 0.9030. Similar short on H4 playing out on NZD/USD. Room to drop to Daily demand nested within weekly supply at 0.8754.

Can anybody post H4 supply zone on NZDUSD so we know exactly where that trade was triggered?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdcad.png Size: 37 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,251
  • Mar 14, 2016 5:37am Mar 14, 2016 5:37am
Hy panoramia!

How many, pending orders do you place at all? What is your practice?

I mean, i marked lots of zone where the market will react what i think. But if i place to all those place a peding order, then i will have a lot of it. It's not a problem for me!
But i think if i left there an order, and the market will change, then this orders will be definetly a lost.

I marked all the courency pairs i have at my broker. ( I ignored a few exotic pairs ) So i have a few S/D level.

If anyone reads this post, and have an answer on it, or can me explan how he/she do it, i will be thankfull!

Regards:
Andars B.
  • #7,252
  • Mar 14, 2016 6:14am Mar 14, 2016 6:14am
Quoting projectaha
Hy panoramia! How many, pending orders do you place at all? What is your practice? I mean, i marked lots of zone where the market will react what i think. But if i place to all those place a peding order, then i will have a lot of it. It's not a problem for me! But i think if i left there an order, and the market will change, then this orders will be definetly a lost. I marked all the courency pairs i have at my broker. ( I ignored a few exotic pairs ) So i have a few S/D level. If anyone reads...
Andars, 4 trades at a time risking 1.5% on each. You must limit your risk and set a target for each of them. Once your monthly goal is reached, stop trading. You must use a tool (EA) that will prevent you from taking more than the maximum risk/drawdown you are allowed in your trading plan, else only plan those that will follow your maximum risk at a time and ignore the others.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,253
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:53am Mar 14, 2016 9:53am
Is this a valid D-Zone on the WK-AUDCHF?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHFWeekly.png Size: 62 KB
  • #7,254
  • Mar 14, 2016 11:29am Mar 14, 2016 11:29am
Quoting lakis071051
Is this a valid D-Zone on the WK-AUDCHF? {image}
Hello lakis071051 !

I think this is not a valid Demand zone, becouse of the big wick on the right site, and that zone what you marked didn't removed any supply zone.

I think the right zone would by the bottom of your trendline, for that zone reacted all of the wicks there on the right site. ( i would drawn there my D zone)

That is just my oppinion, others with more experience can my theory negated.
  • #7,255
  • Mar 14, 2016 11:30am Mar 14, 2016 11:30am
Quoting lakis071051
Is this a valid D-Zone on the WK-AUDCHF? {image}
Dear lakis071051 in his videos, Alphonso mentioned that if a zone is broken by 1 pip also its considered broken so this DZone is not valid. We may consider the next zone with the pin candle or the next last weekly CP pattern as DZ
  • #7,256
  • Mar 14, 2016 5:49pm Mar 14, 2016 5:49pm
Quoting lakis071051
Is this a valid D-Zone on the WK-AUDCHF? {image}
Lakis, that AUDCHF weekly zone is not demand. It did not take out any supply zone or broke a bearish trendline. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,257
  • Mar 15, 2016 1:37am Mar 15, 2016 1:37am
Before and after on NZDUSD H4 short, as planned. Anybody short on NZDUSD H4 supply imbalance? Playing out nicely. Fell short of hitting D1 supply higher and created brand new H4 supply level as confirmation for shorts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.jpg Size: 185 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,258
  • Mar 15, 2016 2:39am Mar 15, 2016 2:39am
Quoting Keenk123
Hi, When a zone is created and price returns to that zone and creates a new zone inside the 1st level as it drops. Do we class that new zone as a new zone or just a 1st touch of the 1st zone created? Example attached file:///Users/kiomclean/Desktop/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-15%20at%2006.20.27.png {image}
Keen, timeframes lower than H4 are not allowed. That looks like a 2 minutes chart Sorry but the thread's rules don't allow those charts. Can you please remove it? You must read rules before posting in the thread please!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,259
  • Mar 15, 2016 4:03am Mar 15, 2016 4:03am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Keen, timeframes lower than H4 are not allowed. That looks like a 2 minutes chart Sorry but the thread's rules don't allow those charts. Can you please remove it? You must read rules before posting in the thread please! Alfonso
Hi Alfonso,
Sure that is fine. The picture was more just to explain my example. This happens on any time frame. Lets say that say scenario happens on a 4H?
  • #7,260
  • Mar 15, 2016 6:17am Mar 15, 2016 6:17am
Hi Guys!

This is GBPAUD Daly!

I want to ask from the community, and form panoramia taht, on this chart we are at a demand zone, and this is the first touch. But you can see, the price is now slowed down. Can this zone be a good opportunity for buy, or for that reason - the price slowed down - this is not a good idea? In all timeframe we are at a demand zone... more or less. I think that is the origin of the move, the demand zone in the daly, becouse from this has the price go up.
I found a better place below this zone at ~340pips. But i dont known which one is greater...

Thank you for your reply!

Regards:
Andrs B.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 124 KB
5 traders viewing now