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  • #501
  • Mar 11, 2016 11:45pm Mar 11, 2016 11:45pm
I believe everybody can learn the markets without investing fortunes. Problem is not many have the patience to go through the process until it clicks.
On average you need 5-10 years to understand how markets move and based on your psychological profile to develop your own approach to analyze and trade them.
And we are talking about 10 hours a day screentime including weekends.
Not sure if you spent that time. Before that you cannot make such a conclusions. Actually the first few years you should NOT trade at all. You just watch price and make notes. When you dont trade, you are focused on price. That helps you learn. You will start recognizing repeated behavior of price and soon you will know what exactly to look.
After few years of watching you are allowed to DEMO and later micro lot trading to see how real money affects you. Its a long process of applying what you have learned the first years into live trading.
With the years you increase slowly the size.

Here i wrote some posts, which may help you:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post8778643
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post8778771
  • #502
  • Mar 12, 2016 12:05am Mar 12, 2016 12:05am
Quoting Copernicus
Somewhere between the spectral extremes of random walk and predictive certainty is the solution
People who argue about randomness usually use the term to refer to uncertainty and unpredictability (and they would be right to believe this about markets). However, if we phrase 'randomness' to mean that markets have no systematic components then its quite obvious to see that markets are immensely complex but they are not random. The statement that price behaves randomly most of the time before breaking into disquietingly large trends is an admission that markets are not random. Note that even if we say that markets are non-random in this way, this doesn't lend an iota of credence to the people who claim to be able to forecast price accurately.
Quote
you need to shift your focus away from reliable cashflow generation and instant profitability (the calling of the ebullient retail trader), and focus on long term survival via risk management.
Yup, this approach makes a lot of sense.

You have also highlighted a common problem among the uninitiated; people let their own personal and subjective biases affect their research. Wanting to make X pips per period or not wanting to take losses in a certain manner imposes arbitrary restrictions upon the development process and ends up producing a system nicely fitted to look appealing on past data but doesn't stand a chance in reality. Maintaining objectivity and simply following the evidence where it leads is enough to produce a profitable system.
Quoting hanover
It depends on how vague or detailed your written "rules" are. LOL {image}
Let me try:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: envelope2.jpg Size: 110 KB

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Most people can read the back of an envelope in a minute or two, but it can take several years to learn how to profit consistently under all market conditions.
It can take anywhere between several minutes to eternity. It all depends on the receiver.
  • #503
  • Edited 12:36am Mar 12, 2016 12:17am | Edited 12:36am
Nice post A

In the use of randomness in the context of trading, perhaps it is better to refer to market noise versus versus directional bias. Noise being price movement that has no predictive value for the applied strategy. What is noise to some (eg, the long term trend trader) is music to others (eg. HFT).

I agree that market price action is complex as opposed to random which gives hope to a variety of different projective trading techniques that can exploit aspects of that complexity, however what let's most traders down is their failure to accept this complexity. It is akin to setting off on a solo sailing mission across the world in a balsa dinghy.

I like your envelope. You haven't by any chance come from the impressionist art school of Picasso have you?
  • #504
  • Mar 12, 2016 12:48am Mar 12, 2016 12:48am
Quoting Atokys
Let me try: {image}
It goes without saying that a half decent programmer could code your 3 rules in double quick time.

Hence an obvious question would be: Why aren't retail traders the world over plundering the markets with MA crossover EAs?
  • #505
  • Mar 12, 2016 1:09am Mar 12, 2016 1:09am
Quoting Copernicus
I agree that market price action is complex
The reasons for price action are complex. Trading price action is simple.

Its the same difference as wanting to understand fluid dynamics and surfing a wave.
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It is akin to setting off on a solo sailing mission across the world in a balsa dinghy.
Yup, those kinds of people are all over this place.
Quote
I like your envelope. You haven't by any chance come from the impressionist art school of Picasso have you?

Quoting hanover
It goes without saying that a half decent programmer could code your 3 rules in double quick time. Hence an obvious question would be: Why aren't retail traders the world over plundering the markets with MA crossover EAs?
Beats me.

I guess its the same reason why, a hundred years ago, stock operators were making a killing riding their winners and cutting their losers while the gambling public were busy losing their shoestring margins at bucketshops.
  • #506
  • Edited 1:42am Mar 12, 2016 1:19am | Edited 1:42am
Quoting hanover
{quote} It goes without saying that a half decent programmer could code your 3 rules in double quick time. Hence an obvious question would be: Why aren't retail traders the world over plundering the markets with MA crossover EAs?
Good question H and it beats me. The MA crossover is a very robust and proven system employed by the professionals provided you are prepared to diversify across asset classes, and be realistic about performance expectations. The complete article is attached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MA Crossover.JPG Size: 103 KB


The cynic in me would say that the average retail trader has unrealistic expectations, expects to be spoon fed with instant gratification, and expects to excel by mimicking other traders strategies without doing the requisite study themselves like any other standard profession. Barriers to entry in the retail trading world are virtually non-existent, so you would expect a huge fallout in this space which appears to be the case. Almost every story you hear is about a trader busting his account several times before finally 'getting it'. Here is an idea........What if like a doctor, lawyer or any other professional, traders initially invested their efforts in educating themselves before launching into their trading venture?.......I wonder what the result would be then. The vast majority would bail without having to spend a wasted dime in this market as they would get quickly bored having to make the effort and find that perhaps that 9-5 pain they are currently going through is not so bad after all.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Quest-Research-Notes-Trend-Following-Sep-2010.pdf   491 KB | 581 downloads
  • #507
  • Mar 12, 2016 2:00am Mar 12, 2016 2:00am
Quoting Atokys
Beats me. I guess its the same reason why, a hundred years ago, stock operators were making a killing riding their winners and cutting their losers while the gambling public were busy losing their shoestring margins at bucketshops.
Quoting Copernicus
Good question H and it beats me. The MA crossover is a very robust and proven system employed by the professionals provided you are prepared to diversify across asset classes, and be realistic about performance expectations. The complete article is attached.
Thanks gents for your comments and (Copernicus) for the PDF -- some bedtime reading for me.
  • #508
  • Mar 12, 2016 2:08am Mar 12, 2016 2:08am
Quoting hanover
{quote} {quote} Thanks gents for your comments and (Copernicus) for the PDF -- some bedtime reading for me.
Cheers H but I think in your case, a good glass of red wine is all you really need. I think the central message is clearly not aimed at you kind Sir
  • #509
  • Mar 12, 2016 2:16am Mar 12, 2016 2:16am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Good question H and it beats me. The MA crossover is a very robust and proven system employed by the professionals provided you are prepared to diversify across asset classes, and be realistic about performance expectations. The complete article is attached. {image} The cynic in me would say that the average retail trader has unrealistic expectations, expects to be spoon fed with instant gratification, and expects to excel by mimicking other traders strategies without doing the requisite study themselves like any other standard profession....
Great post C... But shhhhh. your giving the game away..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #510
  • Mar 12, 2016 2:19am Mar 12, 2016 2:19am
Quoting j4d
{quote} Great post C... Bust shhhhh. your giving the game away..
Awwww....sorry Ja. I just can't stop opening my stoopid trap. I promise to be good from now on........
  • #511
  • Mar 12, 2016 2:20am Mar 12, 2016 2:20am
Even the s**ttiest trend following system can produce consistent profits.
I found at least 4 profitable systems.


Check out this, backtested from 2000.1.1 to 2016.3.10, - 20 pips of spread.


Here we use simple candletstick analysis, no fancy indicators
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This one uses indicators based on MA's (they are all, actually)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.gif Size: 10 KB

This one (my favourite) trades HH's / LL's
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I used fixed lots so you can taste the consistency, but don't bee too impressed as it can actually produce 70% PA with proper risk management, some more, some less. Some perform better on other pairs etc..
In conclusion, if I want much more consinstency, I'd have to trade manually. But then I'd have to deal with greed and other crazy stuff, so screw manual, for now
  • #512
  • Mar 12, 2016 3:27am Mar 12, 2016 3:27am
Quoting HeyYou
Even the s**ttiest trend following system can produce consistent profits. I found at least 4 profitable systems. Check out this, backtested from 2000.1.1 to 2016.3.10, - 20 pips of spread. Here we use simple candletstick analysis, no fancy indicators {image} This one uses indicators based on MA's (they are all, actually) {image} This one (my favourite) trades HH's / LL's {image} I used fixed lots so you can taste the consistency, but don't bee too impressed as it can actually produce 70% PA with proper risk management, some more, some less. Some...
Nice stuff HeyYou The problem with manual trading is that it is difficult to do swinging in a hammock :-)
  • #513
  • Mar 12, 2016 6:08am Mar 12, 2016 6:08am
The forex haters are not realists, they are depressed cynics. And Mingary is fishing for winning systems by guilting people into responding to his posts. If he truly did not care about forex he would have stopped. He is consistently posting here for 5 years, every day. He is using language and arguments that provoke anger in forex traders in order to provoke a response.

It is one thing to ask for basic help on what is going wrong as a newbie, but directly attacking traders to sneak out a profitable response is insulting
Price-Action Extremist
  • #514
  • Mar 12, 2016 6:29am Mar 12, 2016 6:29am
Quoting bagman
The forex haters are not realists, they are depressed cynics. And Mingary is fishing for winning systems by guilting people into responding to his posts. If he truly did not care about forex he would have stopped. He is consistently posting here for 5 years, every day. He is using language and arguments that provoke anger in forex traders in order to provoke a response. It is one thing to ask for basic help on what is going wrong as a newbie, but directly attacking traders to sneak out a profitable response is insulting
Exactly. I almost hate that Ming admitted to losing a lot of money. Now it will be very hard to take him seriously. Others who join that club have also been cleaned out, and now they are what traders call, "ghosts".
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #515
  • Mar 12, 2016 6:31am Mar 12, 2016 6:31am
Quoting HeyYou
Even the s**ttiest trend following system can produce consistent profits. I found at least 4 profitable systems. Check out this, backtested from 2000.1.1 to 2016.3.10, - 20 pips of spread. Here we use simple candletstick analysis, no fancy indicators {image} This one uses indicators based on MA's (they are all, actually) {image} This one (my favourite) trades HH's / LL's {image} I used fixed lots so you can taste the consistency, but don't bee too impressed as it can actually produce 70% PA with proper risk management, some more, some less. Some...

See folks, here is someone ready to work. See the results?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #516
  • Mar 12, 2016 6:34am Mar 12, 2016 6:34am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} See folks, here is someone ready to work. See the results?
You are not wrong J. I am eyeing off that HH/LL equity curve with envy
  • #517
  • Mar 12, 2016 6:45am Mar 12, 2016 6:45am
Quoting bagman
The forex haters are not realists, they are depressed cynics. And Mingary is fishing for winning systems by guilting people into responding to his posts. If he truly did not care about forex he would have stopped. He is consistently posting here for 5 years, every day. He is using language and arguments that provoke anger in forex traders in order to provoke a response. It is one thing to ask for basic help on what is going wrong as a newbie, but directly attacking traders to sneak out a profitable response is insulting
It seems that if I were looking for a "profitable response" I would not want it from you (;

It's really funny to see the amount of delusion pervasive in the ever-hopeful-forex-enthusiasts. They all believe that someone somewhere has the magic bullet for consistent forex profits. Invariably, they always fall short of the glory of forex profits.

How would I possibly be looking for a "profitable response" when in reality none exists ?
  • #518
  • Edited 7:01am Mar 12, 2016 6:49am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting HeyYou
Even the s**ttiest trend following system can produce consistent profits. I found at least 4 profitable systems. Check out this, backtested from 2000.1.1 to 2016.3.10, - 20 pips of spread. Here we use simple candletstick analysis, no fancy indicators {image} This one uses indicators based on MA's (they are all, actually) {image} This one (my favourite) trades HH's / LL's {image} I used fixed lots so you can taste the consistency, but don't bee too impressed as it can actually produce 70% PA with proper risk management, some more, some less. Some...
The key words are "trend following system"
No trend = big loss
A trend following system will crash eventually.
You would think the solution would be to run it when there is a trend and stop it when the trend stops... if only that was possible..
  • #519
  • Mar 12, 2016 6:52am Mar 12, 2016 6:52am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Exactly. I almost hate that Ming admitted to losing a lot of money. Now it will be very hard to take him seriously. Others who join that club have also been cleaned out, and now they are what traders call, "ghosts".
The only ones getting cleaned out are the spot retail traders ...

Hmmm ... I have not even begun to be serious. Was that a serious statement ? I hope not
  • #520
  • Mar 12, 2016 7:09am Mar 12, 2016 7:09am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} The only ones getting cleaned out are the spot retail traders ... Hmmm ... I have not even begun to be serious. Was that a serious statement ? I hope not
One question if you don't mind. It is the only one that seems to have not been asked. If you do not wish to answer that is fine as it may be something you do not wish to share.

What is it exactly that made you decide that there is no way to make money long term from retail Forex trading? And do you blame the system or yourself? If you blame the system, what exactly do you believe it is that makes it impossible to trade profitably long term? Not trying to hold anything against you, just curiosity as i do not believe any one has asked or had the question answered.

I fond it odd that despite your thoughts you still trade. But as like you said you see it as a game then perhaps it is an addiction and perhaps you like many gambling addicts are inf fact addicted to loosing. Please do not take any of my comments out of context as i am not inferring anything. Just observations made with the limited facts i have on hand regarding your situation.
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