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  • #481
  • Mar 11, 2016 7:13pm Mar 11, 2016 7:13pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} .... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=496501
Is garbage.
  • #482
  • Mar 11, 2016 7:29pm Mar 11, 2016 7:29pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=496501


The thread is appropriately named. It is utter useless drivel. Instead of chasing forex pipe dreams, it's better to get a real job, one that actually pays the bills.
  • #483
  • Edited 7:58pm Mar 11, 2016 7:46pm | Edited 7:58pm
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Yeah ok... The needlessly long exposition on the 'random system' was so that I could steer the discussion towards the random walk theory which most people cynical about profitable trading tacitly subscribe to. The doom and gloomers tend to fall into two categories: 1. Random walkist - Markets cannot be reliably beaten. 2. Market Predationist - Markets are out to get you.
I'm hearing you A :-)

What tends to frustrate me and why I appreciate posts of Ming and Nabz from time to time is that it counters the irrational exuberance that is so common on this forum...so I actually appreciate their inputs. What however is unhelpful in this debate is that in reality, there is no hard and fast black and white distinctions in this game. Market uncertainty actually guarantees this.

Somewhere between the spectral extremes of random walk and predictive certainty is the solution, but to find it, you need to shift your focus away from reliable cashflow generation and instant profitability (the calling of the ebullient retail trader), and focus on long term survival via risk management.

Imagine for a moment that rather than thinking in terms of a trade strategies profitability as a measure of success, you simply looked at the ability of a trade strategy to survive for the long term in the market. What would be the results of this chosen mindset? What you may find is that you unfortunately cannot help but be profitable to survive in the long term, but this is not a consequence of a profit focus. It is simply a feature of an inefficient market. Having a 'survivalists' mindset allows you to be around and participate in any non-random biases that may turn up from time to time.

A survivalists mindset will ensure that you don't give a stuff about the next trade, only the next thousand trades. It will allow you to focus on more important aspects of trading such as volatility position sizing and trade management as opposed to the entry/exit technique itself (that takes up the lions share of discussions on this forum), and it will ensure that you are at least around to talk about trading in the next 10 to 20 years. Just by being around for an extended period of time virtually guarantees wealth creation.

To appreciate this subtle mind flip, you need to assess things long term, have patience, strictly manage risk and the rest of the trimmings are simply the consequences of this trading philosophy. The way out of the 'trading is a mugs game' versus 'trading is an instant ticket to riches" is by being less concerned with regular cashflow generation and more concerned with wealth creation and actually opening our eyes and investigating what we might be able to draw from the professional trading community to assist us in this endeavour and in particular those professional trading firms with a long term auditable track record.....but this is written in invisible ink as no matter how many times this is mentioned, the 'yes it is', 'no its not' unhelpful diatribe on this forum will continue.
  • #484
  • Mar 11, 2016 9:00pm Mar 11, 2016 9:00pm
Dear friends,

Don't think negative. In this forex trading 95% of the traders are loosing money. Only 5% are making money. I am glad to be in this 5%. Initially I too lost huge money in this trade. But now scenario is changed. Have patience, wait for the right time, till then don't trade. Don't listen to any paid or free tips. Keep your two hands under your laps. Till the right time comes don't remove them. "Successful people don't do different things, they do things differently". Have this in your mind. Use some profitable auto trade system, but you should decide when to trade. Don't quit as looser, be the winner. All the best.
  • #485
  • Mar 11, 2016 9:26pm Mar 11, 2016 9:26pm
Quoting Atokys
Good trading systems tend to be so simple you could fit their rules on the back of an envelope.
It depends on how vague or detailed your written "rules" are. LOL

Most people can read the back of an envelope in a minute or two, but it can take several years to learn how to profit consistently under all market conditions.
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  • #486
  • Mar 11, 2016 9:29pm Mar 11, 2016 9:29pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} It depends on how vague or detailed your written "rules" are. LOL Most people can read the back of an envelope in a minute or two, but it can take several years to learn how to profit consistently under all market conditions. {image}
LOL. I need to decrease my font a bit to get it on the back of envelope. Thank god for A3 envelopes and parcels
  • #487
  • Mar 11, 2016 10:38pm Mar 11, 2016 10:38pm
I had bad day for trading in this friday, I just lost 30% of my profit gained in past 3 weeks. I knew the cause is I am not in mentally health on trading at that day. And I want to get back to trade again with slower volume I think.
  • #488
  • Edited 11:37pm Mar 11, 2016 11:05pm | Edited 11:37pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} My common sense tells me that any strategy that fails to exploit a real market inefficiency is effectively generating random signals. Inverting a random signal generator will only create yet another random signal generator, which will therefore be equally ineffective. If you doubt this, write a simple EA. For example, buy whenever RSI crosses 30 from below, and then hold until it crosses 70 from above, at which point you close and sell. Then hold until RSI crosses 30 from below, close and buy, and so on. Run it over a large enough amount...
Do you mean if you buy from below RSI's 30 till crosses 70 and you lose, or if you sell from below RSI's 30 till 70 you'll also lose?
Though I didn't bother to check this on a long run, I doubt it. You rather get a break even result.
On the other hand, I totally agree with the logic witch says, if you flip shit you won't get gold, you'll get just another shit.
If you get those results from your example, it doesn't mean you found a constant. (ok, tehnically is, you lose either way constantly)
But I was talking about a constant like some strategy witch produces a kind of: lose, win, lose, win, lose, ...to be turned in: win, win, lose, win, lose.
Ok, if you're not able to come up with such a constant, obviously, you need to quit
You know that word:"do you want to win 10,000$? Ok, if you got them, just keep them into your pocket! ...you just won 10,000$!"
So, in a highly unpredictible environment if you can't come up with some constant, you better go home, and don't be sad, ...you're a winner! :-D
Member
  • #489
  • Mar 11, 2016 11:15pm Mar 11, 2016 11:15pm
Quoting fxstaton
I have no luck in forex. Initial period I get profit, and few months all profits and capital are gone. I think I am not suitable in forex and will quit all and back to work
wonder if you have really quit.. anyway, yes, quit, you're probably not suitable. Back to work = you'll get lucky.
  • #490
  • Mar 11, 2016 11:33pm Mar 11, 2016 11:33pm
Quoting edge540
{quote} "we proved you wrong" what pure unadulterated crap,you've proved nothing."Mingary" is the only realist posting on this thread and you should all take notice of what he is saying.The FX business is populated by charlatans,crooks,BS artists,snake oil sales people and all manner of rogues that prey upon the wannabes that frequent the FF.The never ending posts by the hopefuls who think they will succeed as traders is testament to the gullibility of most people who are attracted to the easy money that trading supposedly offers.To all of you that...
Exactly. I could not have said it better myself
  • #491
  • Mar 11, 2016 11:38pm Mar 11, 2016 11:38pm
Quoting Copernicus
Thank god for A3 envelopes and parcels
Indeed!

Quoting TudorIoan
On the other hand, I totally agree with the logic witch says, if you flip shit you won't get gold, you'll get just another shit.
I think we are saying the same thing, but using different words.

Suppose a man is playing roulette in the casino. He bets on red every time, and after a couple of hours playing, he has lost $100. Does this mean that if he bets on black, he will win in the future? No, the casino will always win if he plays for long enough, because it has a genuine 'edge'. In trading, that is what the trader must try to find, an edge that is robust enough to beat transaction costs, over time. And preferably better than that, if he wants to win consistently across all market conditions. At least that's how I understand it.
  • #492
  • Mar 11, 2016 11:54pm Mar 11, 2016 11:54pm
Quoting edge540
{quote} "we proved you wrong" what pure unadulterated crap,you've proved nothing."Mingary" is the only realist posting on this thread and you should all take notice of what he is saying.The FX business is populated by charlatans,crooks,BS artists,snake oil sales people and all manner of rogues that prey upon the wannabes that frequent the FF.The never ending posts by the hopefuls who think they will succeed as traders is testament to the gullibility of most people who are attracted to the easy money that trading supposedly offers.To all of you that...
You have been using the site since 2007, have not made any money trading, and yet still hang out on this website for traders? Hmmm, not sure if your the person i want to be taking any advice from, positive or negative.
  • #493
  • Edited Mar 12, 2016 12:12am Mar 11, 2016 11:58pm | Edited Mar 12, 2016 12:12am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} You are changing your tune again. LOL You started off saying it's not possible to making money in forex, we proved you wrong. And then you changed your tune and said "well millionaire-at-home retail forex trader does not exist and it's not possible to be a millionaire", I gave you concrete examples WITH NAMES of traders who became millionaires trading at home just like us in retail forex. And now you try flaunt some math distribution that you know shit about and say well some are bound to do better than others to try to wiggle out of an...

Rather than responding to my reply you are giving me some party line.

I bet if a wannabe forex millionaire is having second thoughts opening an account, you would show these examples.
"come on for a swim, the water is fine"
  • #494
  • Mar 12, 2016 12:00am Mar 12, 2016 12:00am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Indeed! {quote} I think we are saying the same thing, but using different words. Suppose a man is playing roulette in the casino. He bets on red every time, and after a couple of hours playing, he has lost $100. Does this mean that if he bets on black, he will win in the future? No, the casino will always win if he plays for long enough, because it has a genuine 'edge'. In trading, that is what the trader must try to find, an edge that is robust enough to beat transaction costs, over time. And preferably better than that, if he wants...
Yeah, I finally got it, right, we're saying pretty much the same thing but this time your words are better than mine. Agree. Thank you
Well, I'm just another enthziastic guy, cose it seems I had found that kind of ...."robust edge" and I'm happy with my strategy for now ...hope it lasts
Regards
Member
  • #495
  • Mar 12, 2016 12:03am Mar 12, 2016 12:03am
Quoting gravitist
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=496501 The thread is appropriately named. It is utter useless drivel. Instead of chasing forex pipe dreams, it's better to get a real job, one that actually pays the bills.
Yes indeed.
  • #496
  • Mar 12, 2016 12:09am Mar 12, 2016 12:09am
Some things with the doomers and gloomers i agree with:

- EA,s do not make money.

- 99% of the stuff on this site is rubbish.

- 99% of the systems on this site is dribble and rubbish.
  • #497
  • Mar 12, 2016 12:19am Mar 12, 2016 12:19am
Quoting mrhigurashi
{quote} You have been using the site since 2007, have not made any money trading, and yet still hang out on this website for traders? Hmmm, not sure if your the person i want to be taking any advice from, positive or negative.
One can sure succeed if he do the same which he advised others..
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -299
  • #498
  • Mar 12, 2016 1:02am Mar 12, 2016 1:02am
Quoting mrhigurashi
Some things with the doomers and gloomers i agree with: - EA,s do not make money. - 99% of the stuff on this site is rubbish. - 99% of the systems on this site is dribble and rubbish.
Better, if you know how to procure Biomass out of that garbage.
Patience is best EA in Trading
  • #499
  • Mar 12, 2016 1:13am Mar 12, 2016 1:13am
Just like a failed trader will tell you its hopeless, a failed business man or other investor will tell you the same. Most people who fail at life have pessimistic views, Its normal.

In my country the statistics say that for every 1 new business start up that succeeds 5 will fail and 60% of all small businesses fail within the first 3 years. So, we all just better keep to being corporate drones.
  • #500
  • Mar 12, 2016 1:14am Mar 12, 2016 1:14am
Quoting mrhigurashi
Some things with the doomers and gloomers i agree with: - EA,s do not make money. - 99% of the stuff on this site is rubbish. - 99% of the systems on this site is dribble and rubbish.
I wouldn't be so hard on the EA's. To expect a single EA to cope with all market conditions is an unrealistic expectation but to have a number of different EA's operating that respond to different market conditions is a different story.

I have seen some pretty good discretionary traders that can handle a few common market conditions, but how would they fare against say 10 different automated strategies and upwards operating in tandem? For EA's to be successful, you need to start thinking in terms of a portfolio of systems as opposed to a single system for all occassions.
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