I plan to quit forex!

This will most likely be so, yes.

Yeah ok...

The needlessly long exposition on the 'random system' was so that I could steer the discussion towards the random walk theory which most people cynical about profitable trading tacitly subscribe to.

The doom and gloomers tend to fall into two categories:
1. Random walkist - Markets cannot be reliably beaten.
2. Market Predationist - Markets are out to get you.

Psst, I don't think its called winning when the game is rigged.

guys, guys, nobody should quit!
for gods sake, consider this:
common sense tells us that whatever it is the strategy for you, and if it always (most of the time) leads you to a failure, just reverse it !!!
because there are just two ways: up & down, long & short, green & red, win & lose...
so, in this case "the secret" should be to stay CONSTANT on your strategy (demo account first recommended)
-so, whatever you discover there, if it is right -> keep trading, if is wrong -> just reverse it and ...also, keep trading!!!

other considerations:
-the markets are the most unmpredictible environment ever exists so, who can survive here?!?! ...obviously those who can find a CONSTANT!
-don't think at the money, just try to find a CONSTANT! whatever it is, test it hard!!! backtest, backtest, backtest!!! and whatever the results are if they're good keep them if they're wrong reverse them!
(manualy backtest streight on the charts recommended)

...nobody should quit

You are changing your tune again. LOL You started off saying it's not possible to making money in forex, we proved you wrong. And then you changed your tune and said "well millionaire-at-home retail forex trader does not exist and it's not possible to be a millionaire", I gave you concrete examples WITH NAMES of traders who became millionaires trading at home just like us in retail forex. And now you try flaunt some math distribution that you know shit about and say well some are bound to do better than others to try to wiggle out of an argument that you know that you have lost fair and square?

No, no, no, you SAID in posts all over this forum that millionaire traders are not possible and constantly want to be shown examples "show me one example blah blah blah",


Well NOW you have your examples. Millionaire-at-home-retail FOREX traders DO exist. It's NOT a trader's "dream". It IS doable, statistics or no statistics, poster boy or no poster boy (those are all irrelevant). Some people are bound to do better than others, that's WHOLE idea!! Some DO become MILLIONAIRES trading Forex!!! Obviously that's not something that you will be able to do so all you can do is sit around and twiddle your thumbs and dismiss others on a forum. Pathetic!!!

Now don't be a sore LOSER and go play in the sand.

Very good approch...Trading is like simple math but people change it in algebra...

what you need to do is study the markets, learn how the market operates, educate your self! find out what worked in the past and what didn't work, did you?
past market data do not give you guaranties that the same thing will happen in the future, the market always changes, but what it will give you is probabilities that something will work most of the times in the past or it didn't,
do you have any statistic on anything? or do you simply take a system and trade it? do you even have a trading plan?
the mind on every trader is biased towards trending markets, and almost every trading system you find out there, is for trading in trending markets,
the trend is your friend, yeah right! it's just that the market trends only about 30%, the rest of the time is ranging or sideways market action,
so then how can you win trading a trend system all the time. it just doesn't work,
if will only work - you guessed it, 30% and then you give it all back 70% of the times.
a good trader needs to have the ability to adapt and also trade ranges, thats where the real money is

I love this guy

My common sense tells me that any strategy that fails to exploit a real market inefficiency is effectively generating random signals. Inverting a random signal generator will only create yet another random signal generator, which will therefore be equally ineffective.

If you doubt this, write a simple EA. For example, buy whenever RSI crosses 30 from below, and then hold until it crosses 70 from above, at which point you close and sell. Then hold until RSI crosses 30 from below, close and buy, and so on. Run it over a large enough amount of data (it doesn't matter which pair or timeframe) and it will lose. Then reverse the strategy and it will still lose. Then figure out why.

If you can't find an inefficiency -- a situation where price delivers some kind of directional or behavioral bias -- you will, over time, lose money. Hence you must ask yourself: is it better to lose money, or to quit?

If you are talking about luck on forex yoy dont understand the concept ,this is not the lottery were you need luck to win here you need consistency, focus and disipline to learn everithing and find the way its better for you ,if you are talking about LUCK is because you dont even start with the basic forex .

RSI and Stochastics are very often used in the wrong fashion. Add to that the Williams %R. What the trader should do is sell the break of 30 and vice versa. Between 30 and 70 is a ranging market by definition. Most probably with lower volume, and therefore much more risk. That's just my opinion, and everybody has one.

Awesome hard hitting response. I will not mind making a 100K. Not too greedy. But i know it is not going to happen in a day. Also i enjoy the game. 😜

Right sir.

"we proved you wrong" what pure unadulterated crap,you've proved nothing."Mingary" is the only realist posting on this thread and you should all take notice of what he is saying.The FX business is populated by charlatans,crooks,BS artists,snake oil sales people and all manner of rogues that prey upon the wannabes that frequent the FF.The never ending posts by the hopefuls who think they will succeed as traders is testament to the gullibility of most people who are attracted to the easy money that trading supposedly offers.To all of you that can't handle the truth go and do your 10,000 hrs of chart watching/study and at the end of "your journey" (ha ha ha) come back and post your record of success.

What a pathetic trolling attempt to try to get some response.

But...why? If a trader learns to trade, why put the work they have on the web for nothing?

I've been trading Spot FX for quite a while. I have recovered the roughly $28k that I lost, finally got off Retail Bucket Shop trading platforms, have been trading through a Prime Broker on two (2) different "commercial/institutional" trading platforms, have created two (2) different LLC entities to conduct all my trading activity and have grown capital through two (2) different LLC trading firms to the low range 8 figure level (combined). But, that's just my experience. Your mileage may vary.

A losing proposition is as a winning proposition unrealized and unseen. Not all ideas in trading are created equal. Not all trading methodologies are created equal. More importantly, not all measurements of risk in trading are calculated and determined equally. Not all approaching to trading psychology are equal and not all definitions of a successful trade are equal.

If you've done the above 100 times or more and still have not found a way to develop a consistently profitable trading approach, then I might conclude that another business model would be more appropriate for an individual. There is such a thing as Traders Acumen that each individual needs to develop on their own. No one can be taught Traders Acumen. It is a talent for Trading that one either has or has not developed. Either you can look at market data and develop the knowledge sufficient to understand what it is saying, or you have not yet developed such Acumen/Talent/Skill.

This is not rocket science. There are some fundamental factors that any market with an OHLC across multiple time intervals must exhibit in order to be a trade-able market. If enough of those factors exist, then that market will demonstrate consistently repeatable behavior that can be exploited for profit. It is up for the Trader to determine the measure of the market and its statistical probability for yielding consistently profitable scenarios.

There are countless ways to go about this. I've one of those ways right here on this forum almost 2 years ago. I went into another sub-forum here and randomly took instruments that were non-currency based (oil, metals, commodities, etc.) and demonstrated the exact same thing I was doing in the currencies section of the forum and seeing the exact same results. It is not a question of can it be done, it is a question of are you asking the right questions of the data and are you focused on applying the right answer you are given from that data.

Not everyone has the same creative mindset, but that mindset along with its ability to create trading ideas, comes with hours upon hours upon hours of beating on the craft of Trading. Not everyone has Data Exploration skill-sets. I came from a background that included Corporate Data Exploration, so the innate and natural instinct to question the data of the market was very natural to me. You don't need a background in Business Intelligence and 3-dimensional Data Modeling to develop this skill. But, you do need to be able to look at market data in ways that others simply do not.


The industry never interviewed me, nor has the industry ever interviewed anyone that I know who has gone beyond being mere consistent, to actually growing capital and developing real wealth as a Trader. None of those people have ever been approached by anyone conducting success/failure rate research within the industry and I know of no Intermediary with Failure Research Budget outlays, who is actively going out there and doing that stuff in FX. My Intermediaries do not do that.



My highest salary with bonus while working in my last Corporate based career out of Silicone Valley in the Enterprise Software Business was $140k annually. I never made more than working for someone else. Today, if I were actively trading, I could lose that much in a week's time during the draw-down phase without so much as batting an eyelash, as I wait patiently for the final movement on the target level. This is light years ahead of my old corporate job.

Last year, I made 2 trades total. Why? Because, I can afford to do so and I'm working on another Trading related project that will be even better than what I currently have today, once it is finished and optimized. What I accomplished before with the way in which I approach the market was a paradigm shift. I don't see anybody out there even remotely close to trading the way I do. This current project that I am working on is going to be yet another paradigm shift and even better than what I have right now. How? By simply deciding to think outside the box of convention and not do what everybody else is doing. Doing what everybody else does, will net you what everybody else nets.


Do you actually believe for one minute that the Market gives a care about your honor, or your courage? The Market will eat your honor for breakfast, your courage for lunch and then it will eat YOU for dinner, if you allow it. Or, should Edison, have simply quit because he though that whole light bulb thing is a losing proposition, merely because he tried so many times and had temporary failure?

Failure is not permanent. An attitude of failure is permanent unless the attitude holder changes it. The individual gets to make that decision. Most will persist until they find something that works for them, while others will see failure as permanent in their attitude long before they "quit." By definition, that means they quit a long time ago and anything they were doing was merely autonomic or crowd driven. Make the decision to succeed before you being and mentality necessary to succeed will fall into place naturally.

I am not saying that everybody is fit to be a Trader. There are just some people out there who refuse to get out of their own way. There are some people out there who refuse to think outside the box of convention and tradition long enough to see a new and different way of doing something.

Elon Musk, does not have this problem. Whatever you may think about him personally is one thing. However, he's one of my models for taking the impossible and turning it into child's play. He does not just do the impossible, it makes it look easy. That is because he's learned the business of thinking outside the box of convention while allowing the "Experts" to be the "Experts."

Now, he's literally targeting Mars. What? You somehow think Mars is funny? You think that Mars is a joke? That's just how far ahead this guys thinking happens to be. He's literally on another planet, thinking about things mere mortal would not even care to consider, let alone try.

Here's my motto in Trading: Failure is Not an Option. Period.

That is light years ahead of "I will try," "I will do my best," "I'll see what I can do" and "I'll give it my best shot." When I start seeing people talk about "trying" and "giving it there best" and "seeing what they can do," I run. I try to get as far away from people like that as possible, because they are doing to add enormous Drag Coefficient to anything I'm trying to get done.

Yoda, once said: No. Try not. Do or do not. There is no try.


It sounds like the opposite might be closer to the truth. Forex seems to have put you in your place, while it played with you along the way. Not to worry. Forex does that. I does play with people, until they learn how to put Forex in its place.



Actually, I do not believe in luck. I believe we live in a Cause always preceding net Effect universe and thus, there is a reason for everything in existence. I am an Empiricist when it comes to Trading. There is a reason why the market moves. My entire job is to find that reason, no matter what type of Trader I might tend to call myself.

I am not surprise that many have yet to learn this lesson:



Go back and read the thread I am posting for you below. I started that thread back in July, 2014.

Price is doing today, exactly what it was doing back in 2014, which is exactly what it has been doing since inception:



Figure it out. It is not hard.

Glean what you can and leave the rest. I won't be around to help you. You will need to help yourself. However, there is enough here for you to start the process of thinking outside the box of convention. You will have to add to and develop this idea on your own, but the idea itself should help you to accomplish that task, if you have the Mindset of a Trader, someone capable of asking good questions of what they see and focusing on things that matter related to the movement of price:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=496501

I would say very close. Risk Mitigation is probably the first order of business.


Very close again. I would say that the a really good system redefines the definition of risk and the very best system actually turns risk into potential reward, thus statistically eradicating risk almost entirely. Near Zero Risk Trading is doable. Finding creative ways to turn risk itself into opportunity, should be the goal of every Trader.

Trading without stress is truly a privilege, though some believe it to be a right.

Well said