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  • #12,301
  • Mar 9, 2016 12:03pm Mar 9, 2016 12:03pm
IMO, crucial support trend line on SPX, testing again right now

SPX 240m chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-240m-TL.PNG Size: 219 KB


/NQ broke his trendline 2 days ago, but have just ranged 4250-4300...

So... Draghi on the move
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,302
  • Mar 9, 2016 12:14pm Mar 9, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting StrayDog
... So... Draghi on the move
yep, I am taking some spreads off in case we get a big move on the ECB.....have a Mar/Mar5 IWM $108 call calendar - in for 10c, out now for 45c - IWM sitting at $106.6, don't want to wait for a shot at perfection and miss a 4-bagger....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,303
  • Mar 9, 2016 12:50pm Mar 9, 2016 12:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yep, I am taking some spreads off in case we get a big move on the ECB.....have a Mar/Mar5 IWM $108 call calendar - in for 10c, out now for 45c - IWM sitting at $106.6, don't want to wait for a shot at perfection and miss a 4-bagger....
10 to 45 is always fun

Re IWM... a perfect setup WAS 2 days ago, mofo hit the line and yesterday -2.5%

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IWM-D-0903.PNG Size: 161 KB


Unfortunatelly I was too busy with other shit (like shorting the /NQ)... pity, I used to trade IWM via options before.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,304
  • Mar 9, 2016 1:42pm Mar 9, 2016 1:42pm
IWM is a good one to have in the quiver. My fear was that maybe the ECB will play the hawk card and we get a drop across the board in equities, pushing me out of the sweet zone on the IWM calendar, so.....out & done. Now, I would love to see the SnP drop so I can get out of the Mar SPY $198/201 bear calls.....if Draghi delivers, my last hope is the Fed hiking next week. I am trying to get into some short-term trades to catch the FOMC aftermath, nothing filled yet, maybe be better to wait til after the ECB anyway....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,305
  • Mar 9, 2016 2:48pm Mar 9, 2016 2:48pm
Quoting The Fool
Ben trying to get in some long vol spreads, not filling anything....a possible scenario for near term vol jump is ECB not delivering then Nar FOMC hiking next week, so I have been looking for Mar4 vix product action...will post if I ever fill anything
just wanted to have something on for the ECB/FOMC combo - if we can see them both a bit hawkish with China rattling in the background maybe we can get some good long vol action. I filled a Mar UVXY $39.5/$40 bull calls for 5c and a Mar VXX $24.5/$25 bull calls for 10c......c'mon CBankers, TF needs a new pair o shoos....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,306
  • Mar 9, 2016 6:17pm Mar 9, 2016 6:17pm
Bought to close March 18th QQQ 99/102/107/110 Iron Condor.

Taking some units off the table pre-Draghi/FOMC ... . This was part of a layered on arrangement I had in QQQ in the March expiry, much as I did with SPY.

Here's the trade chain from head to toe:

2/2 Sold March 18th QQQ 94/97/109/112 iron condor for a $110 credit
2/2 Sold March 18th QQQ 93/96/108/111 iron condor for a $112 credit (Don't ask me why I sold two setups the same day; I imagine there was somewhat of a large move that particular day such that selling a second setup made sense).
2/4 Sold March 18th 92/95 short put vertical for a $56 credit (sold on weakness)
2/5 Bought to close March 18th 109/112 short call vertical for a $16 debit (bought back on weakness/spread near worthless).
2/5 Bought to close March 18th 108/111 short call vertical for a $22 debit (bought back on weakness; spread near worthless).
2/16 Sold March 18th 106/109 short call vertical for a $41 credit (sold on strength)
2/17 Sold March 18th 107/110 short call vertical for a $49 credit (sold on strength)
2/22 Bought to close March 18th 92/95 short put vertical for a $26 debit (bought back on strength; spread near worthless)
3/1 Bought to close March 18th 93/96 short put vertical for a $9 debit (bought back on strength; spread near worthless)
3/2 Bought to close March 18th 94/97 short put vertical for a $10 debit (bought back on strength; spread near worthless)

I should have bought to close the two short call spreads at this point, as the "chain" was net in profit, but forgot to check when I was doing my Tuesday housekeeping trades, so I went ahead and "cleaned the trades up", not noticing until today that it was net profit. In any event:

3/7 Rolled the March 18th 106/109 short call spread to the 107/110 spread (same expiry) to merge the 106/109 with an existing 107/110 for a $34 debit
3/7 Sold March 18th 99/102 short put spread to finance the cost of the roll for a $74 credit
3/8 Bought to close March 18th 99/102/107/110 iron condor for a $176 debit

I'm not going to do all the math here, but if you add up all the credits and subtract all the debits, the net profit after fees and commissions is about $100/contract ($99.89, to be exact), which is a little less than 50% max profit for the combination of the two original iron condors ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,307
  • Mar 9, 2016 6:37pm Mar 9, 2016 6:37pm
Bought to Close BIDU March 18th 152.5/157.5/180/185 Iron Condor

Closed this setup at 50% max profit (for the rolled setup) ($62.58/contract).

It doesn't entirely make up for my early bobble of BIDU's earnings announcement date (first they said it was 2/10; then it was 2/25), but I'll take it here going into Draghi/FOMC.

Here's the entire chain:

2/25 Sold March 8th 132/137/177.5/182.5 iron condor for a $131 credit
2/26 Bought the 132/137 short put vert back for a $9 debit (post earnings announcement; near worthless)
2/29 Rolled the 177.5/182.5 short call vert to the March 18th 180/185 short call vertical for a $17 credit (price too close to short call strike with limited DTE)
2/29 Sold the March 18th 152.5/157.5 short put vertical for a $48 credit (this wasn't strictly necessary, since I received a credit for the roll of the short call side; I just wanted some protection there if price continued to shoot off into the ether).
3/9 Bought to close the March 18th 152.5/157.5/180/185 Iron Condor for a $106 debit.

Total credits minus total debits minus fees and commissions = $62.58/contract, not quite 50% max profit of the original setup, but close enough considering that I had to roll and that it was supposed to be one of those ideal "inzee/outzee" earnings plays ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,308
  • Mar 9, 2016 6:48pm Mar 9, 2016 6:48pm
Quoting The Fool
IWM is a good one to have in the quiver. My fear was that maybe the ECB will play the hawk card and we get a drop across the board in equities, pushing me out of the sweet zone on the IWM calendar, so.....out & done. Now, I would love to see the SnP drop so I can get out of the Mar SPY $198/201 bear calls.....if Draghi delivers, my last hope is the Fed hiking next week. I am trying to get into some short-term trades to catch the FOMC aftermath, nothing filled yet, maybe be better to wait til after the ECB anyway....
I'm also hanging onto four different March SPY short call spreads that are "on the edge." I was hoping that I would only have to roll one -- a 194/197, but "there may be others" ... . Lol.

It's kind of "damned if you do/damned if you don't" rolling situation here before Draghi/FOMC. It dips, I could get out of these. It bounces, it'll be more expensive to roll. I'm just opting for being mechanical here, waiting until 4 DTE or so, and then seeing what can be done with those spreads at that point. Naturally, I'm hoping for a dip, but it'll have to be fairly significant to get out of all four (the "highest" one's at 199/202 and even that's "on the edge"). Ugh.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,309
  • Mar 9, 2016 6:50pm Mar 9, 2016 6:50pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} 10 to 45 is always fun Re IWM... a perfect setup WAS 2 days ago, mofo hit the line and yesterday -2.5% {image} Unfortunatelly I was too busy with other shit (like shorting the /NQ)... pity, I used to trade IWM via options before.
Out of the four index ETF's (SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA), IWM has had the highest volatility recently. Unfortunately, I was all buggered up working an IWM poor man's covered call (bitch has been a handful with the drop and pop) that I figured I wouldn't pile on into IWM with other setups ... . But I shoulda, coulda, woulda ... . That being said, I'm working RUT setups, so basically the same fun ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,310
  • Mar 9, 2016 7:02pm Mar 9, 2016 7:02pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Here's the trade chain from head to toe: ... .
oh man, that looks like work.....I just want to buy some calls and watch them go neck deep itm, or maybe win the lotto on a $1 quickpick.....thanks for posting, tho - I will study what you have done...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,311
  • Mar 9, 2016 7:08pm Mar 9, 2016 7:08pm
just waiting on the CB heads now.....Stagolee.....bad man....

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,312
  • Mar 9, 2016 7:19pm Mar 9, 2016 7:19pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
It bounces, it'll be more expensive to roll. I'm just opting for being mechanical here, waiting until 4 DTE or so, and then seeing what can be done with those spreads at that point. Naturally, I'm hoping for a dip, but it'll have to be fairly significant to get out of all four (the "highest" one's at 199/202 and even that's "on the edge"). Ugh.
I am in the same boat as you w/ Mar SPY bear calls $198/201 - just need a good dip down $195 way soon and I can bail with small loss, at worst. I will be tempted to wait until the FOMC, but will have to eat a yard o shit if neither of those binary events help me out. Oh well, that spread is the last of about 10 total for Mar expiry and all the rest are gone with some range of profits in the bank. A big loss or expensive roll will wipe out a big chunk of those gains, though.....so, yeah, fingers crossed.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,313
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:11pm Mar 9, 2016 9:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} oh man, that looks like work.....I just want to buy some calls and watch them go neck deep itm, or maybe win the lotto on a $1 quickpick.....thanks for posting, tho - I will study what you have done...
The QQQ layering on BS was a kind of an experiment. It's better just to plain ass wait for weakness, leg into short put spreads; wait for strength, leg into short call spreads. Layering on a bunch of different iron condors in a single expiration kind of presents a housekeeping mess. On top of that, we had a bunch of whipsaw where I could bail on one entire side, add units to the opposite side, wait, etc., so there's a lot more action in that chain than there normally is. Normally, it's just a set and forget, maybe roll one side toward price during the trade, and that's about it ... .

I'm just glad to be out of the QQQ's. If only SPY would cooperate ... .

The bad thing is, I couldn't have picked a worse opex to dick around with these: ECB nonsense + FOMC. Price movement has all but stalled here in anticipation. Woulda been great if my short call strikes were 3, 4 strikes north of here, but, nahhh, that would be too easy ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,314
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:24pm Mar 9, 2016 9:24pm
Gotsta go where the volatility takes ya:

XOP April 22nd 24/33 short strangle
Probability of Profit: 70%
Max Profit: $107/contract
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
Break Evens: 22.93/34.07

Will look for a fill tomorrow ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,315
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:08pm Mar 9, 2016 11:08pm
Quoting The Fool
"FuelCell stock is currently priced at between $6 and $7 per share on the Nasdaq. It has surged some 20% on this news alone. And the stock has increased more than 41% since reaching its January 52-week low of $4.51. FuelCell has a consensus buy rating and an average analyst 12-month price target of $19." ....sounds like a lock - when have roomfuls of stock analysts ever been wrong? (....watch for a pullback and maybe buy Jan '17 $7 calls for <$2....)
Filled a $10 Oct/Jan calls calendar for 40c.....shit, I must be a rube...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,316
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:11pm Mar 9, 2016 11:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} just wanted to have something on for the ECB/FOMC combo - if we can see them both a bit hawkish with China rattling in the background maybe we can get some good long vol action. I filled a Mar UVXY $39.5/$40 bull calls for 5c and a Mar VXX $24.5/$25 bull calls for 10c......c'mon CBankers, TF needs a new pair o shoos....
I already have beaucoup SVXY spreads on for the other side of these long vix trades....I am shopping June UVXY call flys, want em cheap and wide, would like the bottom wing down under $40
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,317
  • Mar 10, 2016 12:06am Mar 10, 2016 12:06am
we might rally on a dovish ECB/Fed combo here into Q2 - but then we have to stare down the June FOMC and the Brexit referendum, so I am shopping June long vol spreads. I don't want to pay $1+, but otoh, you get what you pay for - in the case below, risk $1,100 to make near $16k maxP ----- somewhere out there north of $50 look for any chance to get in any kind of cheap bull vert to increase potential maxP and to minimize the outside loss on the broken wing...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-09_2156uvxy.png Size: 82 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,318
  • Mar 10, 2016 12:52am Mar 10, 2016 12:52am
Hints from Heloise for buying butterflys: you want to buy cheap wings and sell the middle strike dear. The strikes at the x0's and x5's will have better volume and will therefore have better bid/ask spreads - you should always sell on a x0 or x5 strike. Conversely, you should buy the wings at strikes off the x0 and x5 strikes. The $36/45/54 UVXY call fly below has a 58c mid. The $35/45/55 has a 90c mid. The downside is it will be harder to fill a fly with wings on the odd strikes....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-09_2241uvxy22.png Size: 105 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,319
  • Mar 10, 2016 9:52am Mar 10, 2016 9:52am
What a crazy shit rollercoster today

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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,320
  • Mar 10, 2016 10:20am Mar 10, 2016 10:20am
Bought a couple of weekly /ES 1980/1975 put spreads for $1.55... fook it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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