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Spider's Den

Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Europe back into deflation is all part of the game. lets look a little Further into the long term, and have a look at the monthly chart, you will se we have been stuck in a wedge for the past few month with a prospectt that if we break lower a part of the bearish continuation (which fundamentally is increasingly bearish for EURUSD), Parity is in the cards {image}
Hi Brian! Looking bearish. It is a bearish pennant (look at the pole). It should drop. Not sure re parity, but still we need to pay attention to 1.0710 and 1.0460.
Quoting PainKillerRO
{quote} Hi, T, can you please post webinar setups of today? THANKS!
Sure! I will b bk in 2h-3h, then Ill post it
Inserted Video


Here it is , the link for Recap
Hi guys,

My view on GBPUSD here. The article is exclusive for FXstreet, so I can't post it here (unless a chart only)

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Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Hi Brian! Looking bearish. It is a bearish pennant (look at the pole). It should drop. Not sure re parity, but still we need to pay attention to 1.0710 and 1.0460.
THe parity is only "IF" we breakout lower... which is a big "IF"...
but there are some catalyst for this to happen....

1. March/April rate hike.
2. June Brexit...
3. Greece and the Grexit debate may return as we reach the 1 year anniversary....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
EURAUD shows a good trend and we might align both technical and fundamental reasoning behind it. EUR is under a QE programme and is accepted as a safe heaven despite the European turmoil whilst AUD is currently in risk on phase, gaining some ground recently.
That explains EURAUD shorts and we can try to capture the move. 1.5070-80 could reject the price (current price 1.5021) towards 1.4985 and the break of 1.4985 targets 1.4910 - L5 camarilla WPP. It is a shallow retracement but we can see a regular bullish divergence playing out so we could eventually might see another 1.5070-80 retest before next leg down. However, If we see no retracement than be prepared for the break of today's lows (direct drop) at 1.4985.
Positional sell trades are always best if taken at higher price levels so we can see a strong POC (50.0, EMA89, running triangle breakout, L3) in 1.5200-20 zone so IF the pair retraces within POC, the price should be rejected. Pay attention to correlation with EURUSD as it has been very strong (+78) so EURAUD is moving the same direction as EURUSD, the only difference is that EURAUD is much more faster than EURAUD, thus the range of the pair is wider.

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+30 pip rejection now!
Quoting T@rantula
EURAUD shows a good trend and we might align both technical and fundamental reasoning behind it. EUR is under a QE programme and is accepted as a safe heaven despite the European turmoil whilst AUD is currently in risk on phase, gaining some ground recently. That explains EURAUD shorts and we can try to capture the move. 1.5070-80 could reject the price (current price 1.5021) towards 1.4985 and the break of 1.4985 targets 1.4910 - L5 camarilla WPP. It is a shallow retracement but we can see a regular bullish divergence playing out so we could eventually...
Target hit!
An unexpected jump in Crude Oil inventories (It influences the price of petroleum products that affects both growth and inflation) had a small impact on USDCAD yesterday as gains were limited and the pair continued to tank during US session.
The USDCAD is technically bearish and we can see a strong POC at 1.3465-80 (H4, X cross, EMA89, the channel top) that we can use for possible short trades. However the price is showing sellers in now moment (green rectangle) and we could see an immediate rejection towards 1.3390. If that doesn't happen eyes should be on POC. The pair is initially targeting 1.3390 and a strong momentum or H1/H4 close below 1.3365 will target 1.3320-10, the channel bottom and L5 confluence zone.
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Quoting T@rantula
An unexpected jump in Crude Oil inventories (It influences the price of petroleum products that affects both growth and inflation) had a small impact on USDCAD yesterday as gains were limited and the pair continued to tank during US session. The USDCAD is technically bearish and we can see a strong POC at 1.3465-80 (H4, X cross, EMA89, the channel top) that we can use for possible short trades. However the price is showing sellers in now moment (green rectangle) and we could see an immediate rejection towards 1.3390. If that doesn't happen eyes...
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
+ 70 pips!

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I`ve been following you for a while T from the sidelines but I have to say that was an absolutely spot on call! I need to learn your ways
Don't fall in various Forex money traps - my new blog post
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Hey tarantula,
thought you might find these interesting....

Majors Spot price versus Corresponding 2 Year Treasury Spread.

Interesting divergences spotted in most currency pairs EXCEPT the GBPUSD.....

This would suggest quite a few currencies to be making correctional moves soon....

The USDJPY is particularly a scarier one..... Spot price mirroring the move in USvJP 2YR Treasury Yield spread. with a 2 week delay... it though as treasury is saying USDJPY is headed back up to 120.... within the next 2 weeks.....
i wonder what the catalyst would be....
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
Quoting Notts_Matt
I`ve been following you for a while T from the sidelines but I have to say that was an absolutely spot on call! I need to learn your ways
Hi Notts,

Thank you for your comments! Feel free to ask whatever you want to know, Ill help the best as I can.
The EURUSD is focused on ECB meeting this week on Thursday where investors will re-assess ECB further policy but until then we need to analyze the possible intraday movement of the most traded Forex pair. After good NFP but bad wages data on Friday the EURUSD spiked to 1.1040 region after the rejection from 1.0920.
Today the pair has initially been sold but the overall trend is bullish. H1 shows a cup with handle pattern where handle is formed in upper half of the cup. POC for positional trades is 1.0925-50 but only above 1.0955 the pair can gain upside momentum towards 1.1040. Point A is the right cup lip and it serves as the breakout point whereas point B is the handle low confluence. Only above 1.1040 the price will open the door for 1.1150.

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+ 30 atm
Quoting T@rantula
+ 30 atm
First Target of 1.1040 is hit. In EUR/USD chart i can detect inverse head and shoulders on 1h timeframe.
If its true than EUR/USD should go at least till 1.1100-1.1120 ?
Quoting LatvianFX
{quote} First Target of 1.1040 is hit. In EUR/USD chart i can detect inverse head and shoulders on 1h timeframe. If its true than EUR/USD should go at least till 1.1100-1.1120 ?
Hi!
Yes the first target has been hit. Now we need a strong H1 momentum or 4h close above 1.1040 to proceed further.
New GBPUSD analysis- at Fxstreet.com

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