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Spider's Den

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  • Post #22,581
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:15am Mar 1, 2016 4:15am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting fxtyrant
Disliked
{quote} Europe back into deflation is all part of the game. lets look a little Further into the long term, and have a look at the monthly chart, you will se we have been stuck in a wedge for the past few month with a prospectt that if we break lower a part of the bearish continuation (which fundamentally is increasingly bearish for EURUSD), Parity is in the cards {image}
Ignored
Hi Brian! Looking bearish. It is a bearish pennant (look at the pole). It should drop. Not sure re parity, but still we need to pay attention to 1.0710 and 1.0460.
 
 
  • Post #22,582
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:16am Mar 1, 2016 4:16am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting PainKillerRO
Disliked
{quote} Hi, T, can you please post webinar setups of today? THANKS!
Ignored
Sure! I will b bk in 2h-3h, then Ill post it
 
 
  • Post #22,583
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:58am Mar 1, 2016 7:58am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Inserted Video


Here it is , the link for Recap
 
 
  • Post #22,584
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 9:31am Mar 1, 2016 9:31am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Hi guys,

My view on GBPUSD here. The article is exclusive for FXstreet, so I can't post it here (unless a chart only)

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  • Post #22,585
  • Quote
  • Mar 1, 2016 9:36pm Mar 1, 2016 9:36pm
  •  fxtyrant
  • Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Member | 10,226 Posts
Quoting [email protected]
Disliked
{quote} Hi Brian! Looking bearish. It is a bearish pennant (look at the pole). It should drop. Not sure re parity, but still we need to pay attention to 1.0710 and 1.0460.
Ignored
THe parity is only "IF" we breakout lower... which is a big "IF"...
but there are some catalyst for this to happen....

1. March/April rate hike.
2. June Brexit...
3. Greece and the Grexit debate may return as we reach the 1 year anniversary....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
 
 
  • Post #22,586
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  • Mar 2, 2016 8:21am Mar 2, 2016 8:21am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
EURAUD shows a good trend and we might align both technical and fundamental reasoning behind it. EUR is under a QE programme and is accepted as a safe heaven despite the European turmoil whilst AUD is currently in risk on phase, gaining some ground recently.
That explains EURAUD shorts and we can try to capture the move. 1.5070-80 could reject the price (current price 1.5021) towards 1.4985 and the break of 1.4985 targets 1.4910 - L5 camarilla WPP. It is a shallow retracement but we can see a regular bullish divergence playing out so we could eventually might see another 1.5070-80 retest before next leg down. However, If we see no retracement than be prepared for the break of today's lows (direct drop) at 1.4985.
Positional sell trades are always best if taken at higher price levels so we can see a strong POC (50.0, EMA89, running triangle breakout, L3) in 1.5200-20 zone so IF the pair retraces within POC, the price should be rejected. Pay attention to correlation with EURUSD as it has been very strong (+78) so EURAUD is moving the same direction as EURUSD, the only difference is that EURAUD is much more faster than EURAUD, thus the range of the pair is wider.

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  • Post #22,587
  • Quote
  • Mar 2, 2016 10:03am Mar 2, 2016 10:03am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
+30 pip rejection now!
 
 
  • Post #22,588
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:31am Mar 3, 2016 3:31am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting [email protected]
Disliked
EURAUD shows a good trend and we might align both technical and fundamental reasoning behind it. EUR is under a QE programme and is accepted as a safe heaven despite the European turmoil whilst AUD is currently in risk on phase, gaining some ground recently. That explains EURAUD shorts and we can try to capture the move. 1.5070-80 could reject the price (current price 1.5021) towards 1.4985 and the break of 1.4985 targets 1.4910 - L5 camarilla WPP. It is a shallow retracement but we can see a regular bullish divergence playing out so we could eventually...
Ignored
Target hit!
 
 
  • Post #22,589
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:58am Mar 3, 2016 6:58am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
An unexpected jump in Crude Oil inventories (It influences the price of petroleum products that affects both growth and inflation) had a small impact on USDCAD yesterday as gains were limited and the pair continued to tank during US session.
The USDCAD is technically bearish and we can see a strong POC at 1.3465-80 (H4, X cross, EMA89, the channel top) that we can use for possible short trades. However the price is showing sellers in now moment (green rectangle) and we could see an immediate rejection towards 1.3390. If that doesn't happen eyes should be on POC. The pair is initially targeting 1.3390 and a strong momentum or H1/H4 close below 1.3365 will target 1.3320-10, the channel bottom and L5 confluence zone.
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  • Post #22,590
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2016 11:07am Mar 3, 2016 11:07am
  •  Ll1979
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 2,931 Posts
Quoting [email protected]
Disliked
An unexpected jump in Crude Oil inventories (It influences the price of petroleum products that affects both growth and inflation) had a small impact on USDCAD yesterday as gains were limited and the pair continued to tank during US session. The USDCAD is technically bearish and we can see a strong POC at 1.3465-80 (H4, X cross, EMA89, the channel top) that we can use for possible short trades. However the price is showing sellers in now moment (green rectangle) and we could see an immediate rejection towards 1.3390. If that doesn't happen eyes...
Ignored
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
 
 
  • Post #22,591
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2016 12:38pm Mar 3, 2016 12:38pm
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
+ 70 pips!

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  • Post #22,592
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2016 12:45pm Mar 3, 2016 12:45pm
  •  Notts_Matt
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 5 Posts
I`ve been following you for a while T from the sidelines but I have to say that was an absolutely spot on call! I need to learn your ways
 
 
  • Post #22,593
  • Quote
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:02pm Mar 6, 2016 12:02pm
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Don't fall in various Forex money traps - my new blog post
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  • Post #22,594
  • Quote
  • Mar 7, 2016 3:45am Mar 7, 2016 3:45am
  •  fxtyrant
  • Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Member | 10,226 Posts
Hey tarantula,
thought you might find these interesting....

Majors Spot price versus Corresponding 2 Year Treasury Spread.

Interesting divergences spotted in most currency pairs EXCEPT the GBPUSD.....

This would suggest quite a few currencies to be making correctional moves soon....

The USDJPY is particularly a scarier one..... Spot price mirroring the move in USvJP 2YR Treasury Yield spread. with a 2 week delay... it though as treasury is saying USDJPY is headed back up to 120.... within the next 2 weeks.....
i wonder what the catalyst would be....
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
 
 
  • Post #22,595
  • Quote
  • Mar 7, 2016 4:55am Mar 7, 2016 4:55am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting Notts_Matt
Disliked
I`ve been following you for a while T from the sidelines but I have to say that was an absolutely spot on call! I need to learn your ways
Ignored
Hi Notts,

Thank you for your comments! Feel free to ask whatever you want to know, Ill help the best as I can.
 
 
  • Post #22,596
  • Quote
  • Mar 7, 2016 8:15am Mar 7, 2016 8:15am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
The EURUSD is focused on ECB meeting this week on Thursday where investors will re-assess ECB further policy but until then we need to analyze the possible intraday movement of the most traded Forex pair. After good NFP but bad wages data on Friday the EURUSD spiked to 1.1040 region after the rejection from 1.0920.
Today the pair has initially been sold but the overall trend is bullish. H1 shows a cup with handle pattern where handle is formed in upper half of the cup. POC for positional trades is 1.0925-50 but only above 1.0955 the pair can gain upside momentum towards 1.1040. Point A is the right cup lip and it serves as the breakout point whereas point B is the handle low confluence. Only above 1.1040 the price will open the door for 1.1150.

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  • Post #22,597
  • Quote
  • Mar 7, 2016 11:00am Mar 7, 2016 11:00am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
+ 30 atm
 
 
  • Post #22,598
  • Quote
  • Mar 8, 2016 3:31am Mar 8, 2016 3:31am
  •  LatvianFX
  • | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 25 Posts
Quoting [email protected]
Disliked
+ 30 atm
Ignored
First Target of 1.1040 is hit. In EUR/USD chart i can detect inverse head and shoulders on 1h timeframe.
If its true than EUR/USD should go at least till 1.1100-1.1120 ?
 
 
  • Post #22,599
  • Quote
  • Mar 8, 2016 8:39am Mar 8, 2016 8:39am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting LatvianFX
Disliked
{quote} First Target of 1.1040 is hit. In EUR/USD chart i can detect inverse head and shoulders on 1h timeframe. If its true than EUR/USD should go at least till 1.1100-1.1120 ?
Ignored
Hi!
Yes the first target has been hit. Now we need a strong H1 momentum or 4h close above 1.1040 to proceed further.
 
 
  • Post #22,600
  • Quote
  • Mar 8, 2016 8:40am Mar 8, 2016 8:40am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
New GBPUSD analysis- at Fxstreet.com

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