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Discovering An Edge

  • #1,121
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:18am Mar 4, 2016 8:18am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} No, I don't iron those! Tried another short as it was going down after NFP. Out -10. Crazy moves, up and down like a yo-yo. I'm done for the night. Good luck!
It's just bloody crazy, North!
The one that did my head in was GBPNZD..... why I decided to start trading this pair I dunno.... but that caught me unprepared and I panicked on my DAX trade that I longed instead of shorted then dropped away. Oh well... that's trading.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,122
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:21am Mar 4, 2016 8:21am
Yes, crazy it is! I'm glad I didn't trade EU though. Reckon a lot of people got hurt on that. I'm going now before I become tempted to open another trade! Have a good weekend
You reap what you sow.
  • #1,123
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:41am Mar 4, 2016 9:41am
Just closed a DAX long +205 to make up for the previous blunder.
Had a failed attempt at AUDUSD shorts, can't even remember what that loss was. Don't matter.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,124
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:19am Mar 4, 2016 10:19am
Long DAX @ 9827
Short EURUSD @ 11005
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,125
  • Mar 5, 2016 9:42am Mar 5, 2016 9:42am
Quoting vlady1974
Long DAX @ 9827 Short EURUSD @ 11005
Good stuff vlady....About NZD GBP AUD and other manipulated currencies, i decided long ago not to care about. Nowadays i throw Usd/jpy in that miserable group. .... Seems they have year-end money repatriation started. Not touching them..... Good luck.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,126
  • Mar 6, 2016 3:37pm Mar 6, 2016 3:37pm
What a crazy NFP day...overall I was down -40 for the day, which was disappointing but at the same time, the main losses came from or was triggered by GBPNZD and my inexperience with the pair. This set off a chain reaction that made me panic and I made 2 mistakes with DAX and AUD.

This week, I'll be starting off quietly and reassess. I have 2 trades open from Friday and I'll hold onto them until London open tomorrow.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,127
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:22pm Mar 6, 2016 4:22pm
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Good stuff vlady....About NZD GBP AUD and other manipulated currencies, i decided long ago not to care about. Nowadays i throw Usd/jpy in that miserable group. .... Seems they have year-end money repatriation started. Not touching them..... Good luck.
I guess all currencies are manipulated really, since all reserve banks will be able to control their own currencies and reserves, right?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,128
  • Mar 6, 2016 9:14pm Mar 6, 2016 9:14pm
Quoting vlady1974
What a crazy NFP day...overall I was down -40 for the day, which was disappointing but at the same time, the main losses came from or was triggered by GBPNZD and my inexperience with the pair. This set off a chain reaction that made me panic and I made 2 mistakes with DAX and AUD. This week, I'll be starting off quietly and reassess. I have 2 trades open from Friday and I'll hold onto them until London open tomorrow.
Hey Vlad, -40 is not so bad for such a wild NFP day. I lost 30 including costs, but am quite happy with that because I kept my leverage low and got out fast when things weren't working. Can't say fairer than that

Your AU losses were probably my fault actually. It's easy to get distracted or swayed by another trader's opinion in the heat of the moment. Happens to me too. Sorry about that.

I guess we should infer something from the wild swings on Friday, but I'm not sure what it is. Either smart money were caught out, or they were using NFP to fill their positions at better prices. Maybe a bit of both. I wonder if this means we're going to see some big moves this week?
You reap what you sow.
  • #1,129
  • Mar 6, 2016 9:21pm Mar 6, 2016 9:21pm
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Good stuff vlady....About NZD GBP AUD and other manipulated currencies, i decided long ago not to care about. Nowadays i throw Usd/jpy in that miserable group. .... Seems they have year-end money repatriation started. Not touching them..... Good luck.
I don't think that AUD is being manipulated by the RBA at the moment. I think this move up is being driven by commodities (especially gold and oil/gas) and Asian equities more than anything. If you pull up charts and compare last week's prices of these instruments then you'll see the correlations clearly. AUD is just along for the ride!
You reap what you sow.
  • #1,130
  • Mar 6, 2016 9:22pm Mar 6, 2016 9:22pm
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Hey Vlad, -40 is not so bad for such a wild NFP day. I lost 30 including costs, but am quite happy with that because I kept my leverage low and got out fast when things weren't working. Can't say fairer than that Your AU losses were probably my fault actually. It's easy to get distracted or swayed by another trader's opinion in the heat of the moment. Happens to me too. Sorry about that. I guess we should infer something from the wild swings on Friday, but I'm not sure what it is. Either smart money were caught out, or they were using...
Hi NT

I concur. Something is going on. Nearly all my trades in the last month or so have been counter-trend which is quite unusual in the scheme of things. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see some good volatility coming up. :-)
  • #1,131
  • Mar 7, 2016 1:34am Mar 7, 2016 1:34am
Currency Strength dashboard based on 200 and 100EMA.
Chart shows AUD strength and GBP weakness.
I'd be looking at Gold strength as a result.... not sure if I want to short UJ though.... but that could also mean strength on EUR.

200EMA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 90 KB


100EMA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1.png Size: 99 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,132
  • Mar 7, 2016 1:41am Mar 7, 2016 1:41am
Made an early mistake with DAX. I wanted to short the Frankie Open based on positive manufacturing news but set the stop to bloody close. -30. Then the market took off south in a classic Frankie Fake. Dammit. Closed my GBPUSD short from last week +15 to hedge that.

Opened short GBPAUD @ 19159
Still open from last week AUDUSD long @ 7419 although I realise this is at top of the range, so this could be a potential loser if a profit taking retrace commences.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,133
  • Mar 7, 2016 1:46am Mar 7, 2016 1:46am
Long DAX @ 9773, wide SL.
It's close enough to Asia Open.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,134
  • Mar 7, 2016 1:52am Mar 7, 2016 1:52am
Decided to close the AUD long for -13
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,135
  • Mar 7, 2016 2:05am Mar 7, 2016 2:05am
Long DAX @ 9761
Short EUR @ 10969
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,136
  • Mar 7, 2016 2:13am Mar 7, 2016 2:13am
Quoting vlady1974
Made an early mistake with DAX. I wanted to short the Frankie Open based on positive manufacturing news but set the stop to bloody close. -30. Then the market took off south in a classic Frankie Fake. Dammit. Closed my GBPUSD short from last week +15 to hedge that. Opened short GBPAUD @ 19159 Still open from last week AUDUSD long @ 7419 although I realise this is at top of the range, so this could be a potential loser if a profit taking retrace commences.
Closed GBPAUD as it closed the gap. Could go upwards. By all accounts it should go lower but it's Monday and I think there will be retests of Pivots etc.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,137
  • Mar 7, 2016 3:26am Mar 7, 2016 3:26am
You gotta have balls of steel to suffer drawdowns like that on DAX.
9720 has been "pivotal" (no-pun-intended) for a few weeks now.
The 1H 100EMA has held for now. I am still long biased but clearly got underwater trades that are below daily pivot.
I had to close my EUR short for +13 to just keep account levels on an even keel.
Balls of steel indeed.

If I were to analyse this on a ZZBB method basis, then we are still due a correction southside with the 1H bar closing below Bollinger Band.
However, this Low Close will be nullified if price goes over Bollinger Band mid, which is Pivot really... and we are currently sideways.

That is, from the old/classic "similarity" thinking... the last close outside of bollinger bar (the High) is an unresolved price.
If price crosses the Pivot and Bollinger Mid not having created a swing low, then the High should be taken out and we'll have a new high.
That's the plan, anyway. We'll see what the market says.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX-1H.JPG Size: 137 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,138
  • Mar 7, 2016 7:42am Mar 7, 2016 7:42am
And there you have it. Took hits on the DAX longs. But got one long from the lows for +50 against -100 SLs.
The scenario I spoke of played out. The drop did close outside of BB and created the ideal low from 9700. I have a pending long order at 9705 for the NYC session, but that may not get filled if 9720 holds.

In other news, took +13 off GBUSD short and just entered into a GBPJPY short @ 160.77 looking for 159.56
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,139
  • Mar 7, 2016 8:00am Mar 7, 2016 8:00am
I had to close the GBPJPY trade for +4. Will get in at a better short price
Long DAX 9713

Edit:
Short GBPYEN @ 16071
I noticed price on 2M chart going up and on the 5M, it was going to the Bollinger Band Mid and I was trying to catch it. But it was just too fast and I'm at work so couldn't watch in real time..... had to sneak in the trade or the boss might see! LOL
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,140
  • Mar 7, 2016 8:52am Mar 7, 2016 8:52am
Another long on DAX @ 9724.3
Scrapped the GBPJPY short for now
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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