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Let's Trade Options

  • #12,261
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:53pm Mar 4, 2016 10:53pm
bot this Mar NFLX fly on 2/2 for 30c, with shares trading at $95....rode thru the dip below $80 (.......) and now she's come back and my fly is sitting at b/e. If equities keep on rallying I will make some change, but the clock is ticking louder....when it was down there in the low $80's I tried to get in a $95/100/105 call fly...missed it - so sad...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,262
  • Mar 5, 2016 12:07am Mar 5, 2016 12:07am
long vol pays, Cecil....UVXY dipped under $30 today....I have to expect it might get back to $25 in the coming weeks --- unless I'm wrong and the fear-the-Fed jitters come back. Anyway, the beauty of long vol spreads is - you don't have to be a sharpshooter - if you get in a pretty wide spread cheap with plenty of time, a vol spike will make money in a wide range including outside your spread strikes...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,263
  • Mar 5, 2016 12:19am Mar 5, 2016 12:19am
...short vol spreads not as juicy but still worth a shot if can be filled cheap. If FOMC whiffs on 3/16 then we should see vol collapse continue into perhaps end April even most of May....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,264
  • Mar 5, 2016 2:16am Mar 5, 2016 2:16am
I like putting on vix product spreads with a lot of time, but if there is a binary event with a set date, maybe try to fine tune......like the Mar FOMC in Mar opex week...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,265
  • Mar 6, 2016 3:13am Mar 6, 2016 3:13am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...=yhoo.headline

...LNG exports to save the day?....mmmaybe.....everything changes, maybe we'll get a real winter one of these years....?

Jan 18 $10/11 call vert maybe get for 6c, buy a ticket & let it ride....UNG was trading at $10 just 5 months ago....

P/L shows 1-yr out....a 50 lot @ 6c debit risks $385 to make MaxP $4,615...maxP on expiry day in Jan '18 needs a hair over $12....UNG lt near $12 back in Oct '15

...bottom picker dilemma....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,266
  • Mar 6, 2016 3:19am Mar 6, 2016 3:19am
UNG super bull?....the Jan '18 $6/$5 bull puts'll get ya $0.49....sell 8 to cover the 50-lot call vert debit above
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,267
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:52am Mar 6, 2016 11:52am
Quoting The Fool
UNG super bull?....the Jan '18 $6/$5 bull puts'll get ya $0.49....sell 8 to cover the 50-lot call vert debit above
This guy's looking for a bounce off the all-time lows, based on (say what?) seasonality ... . Think he may be looking at a different calendar than me, because I think we've already seen it.

Dude does make an interesting point, though, regarding an earlier than usual summer seasonal bounce on increased electrical demand. That "second peak" has never been that profound, though ... .

http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/14...as-rebound-off

I naturally hope that he's right, but trying not to get my hopes up too high for (I dunno) 7.5+ UNG at some point in my lifetime ... . Still working a UNG covered call with a cost basis at slightly below $7, but with a $6 short call below my cost basis. This is not ideal, but the only way I could get squat out of the short call; based somewhat on the notion that "we've seen the peak." I'll just keep rolling that short $6 out sideways unless we do get some kind of significant bounce, when I'll try to roll it up. No hurry ... .

I do like the idea of financing the long call spread with the short put one, TF.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,268
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:53am Mar 6, 2016 11:53am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} This guy's looking for a bounce off the all-time lows, based on (say what?) seasonality ... . Think he may be looking at a different calendar than me, because I think we've already seen it. Dude does make an interesting point, though, regarding an earlier than usual summer seasonal bounce on increased electrical demand. That "second peak" has never been that profound, though ... . http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/14...as-rebound-off I naturally hope that he's right, but trying not to...
At this point, price will rip significantly higher through my short 6, because this is what this soul sucking whore has done to me since peak injection. Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,269
  • Edited 12:19pm Mar 6, 2016 12:00pm | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...=yhoo.headline ...LNG exports to save the day?....mmmaybe.....everything changes, maybe we'll get a real winter one of these years....? Jan 18 $10/11 call vert maybe get for 6c, buy a ticket & let it ride....UNG was trading at $10 just 5 months ago.... P/L shows 1-yr out....a 50 lot @ 6c debit risks $385 to make MaxP $4,615...maxP on expiry day in Jan '18 needs a hair over $12....UNG lt near $12 back in Oct '15 ...bottom...
Just gandered at that Bloomberg vid ... . These guys are way bullish rolling into 2017 ... . $3.05 is what they're calling off a mix of increased demand, lower NG rig count, and lower costs associated with exporting LNG by tanker. The only factor they haven't taken into account is weather, over which they have no control. 'Course, there's unlikely to be an El Nino like we've had this year for the next 2 to 7 years ... . http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/faq.html

I think that the trading nutshell to take out of that is forget about trading this short-term bullish. Look out at fairly long-term horizons for all these elements (decreased rig, increased exports, mild 2015 weather) to come to fruition, as they're not going to happen overnight and we're rolling into summer with unusually high inventories (continued bearish pressure). To me, it says: look to add to your long position on further weakness, but be patient ... .

But that Jan 2018 setup looks pretty damn enticing ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,270
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:20pm Mar 6, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
T.F. check out daily and weekly candle on UGAZ inverted hammer on both timeframes, very rare occurrence are heading for LONG gas
interesting video on gas
  • #12,271
  • Mar 6, 2016 1:57pm Mar 6, 2016 1:57pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
To me, it says: look to add to your long position on further weakness, but be patient ... . But that Jan 2018 setup looks pretty damn enticing ... .
we will have time to cogitate on it......could yet be lower lows.....re: the Jan 2018 vert above, I may go ahead and put a couple Bens on it, not a 50-lot, maybe 25-30.....I like having long-term plays in the stack, gives me something to look at without freaking out on...re: 2018 bull puts, hmmm, that margin could be tied up for many months before you could take it off with some decent gain ... I prolly find easier uses for it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,272
  • Mar 6, 2016 2:02pm Mar 6, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting The Fool
we will have time to cogitate on it..........
The TT crew will be in flipflops pretty soon....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,273
  • Mar 6, 2016 2:27pm Mar 6, 2016 2:27pm
IF U wanna try to catch something off a 2016 seasonal bottom, the Oct/Jan'17 diagonal calls could work - the idea I show is not really the 10x gain you might get with a good finish in Oct, but the (infinite ) gain you might luck out on if Oct is still below your short strike and then you hang in, with three more months, to see UNG head up...your initial 2c debit could go >$2.00 if you catch a spike into Winter ...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,274
  • Mar 6, 2016 3:24pm Mar 6, 2016 3:24pm
EWZ and PBR spiked when they took Lula in....if they say they will impeach Rousseff, they will jump way more....

http://news.yahoo.com/lula-arrest-br...aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--

"The PMDB has its convention in Brasilia on March 12 where factions in favor of joining the opposition will voice their support for the impeachment of Rousseff, which would put their leader Temer in the presidential seat."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,275
  • Mar 6, 2016 7:16pm Mar 6, 2016 7:16pm
If oil continues to rally, if the Fed whiffs in March, if they keep beating the Dilma impeachment drum - EWZ could easily go up another $10+ in the next 1-2 months.....

...might be hard to fill that 50c spread for 2c, with no volume on the $29.5 strike, but we'll see tomorrow, might get in something lower....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,276
  • Mar 6, 2016 7:36pm Mar 6, 2016 7:36pm
same as above for PBR, even more so if they throw the govt crooks in jail...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,277
  • Mar 6, 2016 8:13pm Mar 6, 2016 8:13pm
Quoting The Fool
Holy Cow look at SDRL....CHK, too....where are my lotto tix?
....can CHK hang on to big gains if natgas keeps dropping?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,278
  • Mar 6, 2016 10:10pm Mar 6, 2016 10:10pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} we will have time to cogitate on it......could yet be lower lows.....re: the Jan 2018 vert above, I may go ahead and put a couple Bens on it, not a 50-lot, maybe 25-30.....I like having long-term plays in the stack, gives me something to look at without freaking out on...re: 2018 bull puts, hmmm, that margin could be tied up for many months before you could take it off with some decent gain ... I prolly find easier uses for it....
Am I right in eyeballing 3.05 NGAS as being equivalent to like $15 UNG? Seems like a long way up from down here ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,279
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:03pm Mar 6, 2016 11:03pm
last spring's high was $3.10 for /NG, concurrently UNG high was $15.28

----get in cheap and give yourself time, who knows?....dreams do come true sometimes....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,280
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:44pm Mar 6, 2016 11:44pm
more UNG trades to catch a good rebound in 2016-2017.....don't risk no moneys yous cans not affords to loses
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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