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OrderFlowTrading.com - Become a Market Predator

  • #261
  • Mar 2, 2016 6:51pm Mar 2, 2016 6:51pm
​Order Boards Updated:
http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Articles/OrderBoard.aspx
  • #262
  • Mar 3, 2016 12:54am Mar 3, 2016 12:54am
Quoting redbaron1981
I never really wanted to post anymore on this thread and maybe even FF for that matter. My reason for posting on this thread is because I know it has a large subscription of noobs. What I will say is that right now we are in the best trading conditions that I have experienced in a longtime. There is LOTS of opportunity out there right now for the taking. Instead of spending your time reading this thread or any other for that matter along with paying for mentors and signal providers, you should be learning how to make the most of it while conditions...
Gotta agree markets are quite volatile, and this favors daytraders.

1 pair vs multiple: Idk. I beliebe it comes down to the trading style. I have been trading a single asset last year, and I simply went nuts due to the lack of opportunities. What I mean is I was looking for 2-3 good trades a day. However a single asset doesn't often provide that amount of good opportunities a day. Sometime it does give 1-2 nice signals, sometimes 0. So I kind of started to "force" the trades and this didn't end well. But I think this is because of my trading style. I feel the most comfortable with 1-5 trades a day, so I should develop something that provides such opportunities.
On the other hand there are scalpers and all that shit, who trade 100+ turns / day they usually trade only 1 pair. That's because they are so busy with one asset, that if they added more they would be overwhelmed.

Could you briefly describe how you use multi-assets?
You watch or trade everything? There is a huge difference.
It's all psychology...
  • #263
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:20am Mar 3, 2016 6:20am
I think its good to start out trading one asset as it allows you to learn how prices behave faster, but I agree that it depends on style. The more active you are the fewer assets you can trade at one time. For example, as an active intraday futures trade I watch 12 contracts, but usually only trade 1 of them per day. If I was holding positions I would definitely be running several at a time.
  • #264
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:01am Mar 3, 2016 7:01am
Sample of our Stop Hunters Order Board:
Attached Image

Get the latest levels here: http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Articles/OrderBoard.aspx
  • #265
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:39pm Mar 3, 2016 3:39pm
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Gotta agree markets are quite volatile, and this favors daytraders.
Thats a good observation. What you should be asking yourself is why are they more volatile. With the rise of Algos and the loose credit, everything has become highly correlated. In other words everything moves the same as everything. When markets move like this, they do not present many opportunities. When these relationships start to break down opportunities become abundant, provided you know how to find them. You will never find them by looking at a single asset.

Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} I simply went nuts due to the lack of opportunities. What I mean is I was looking for 2-3 good trades a day. However a single asset doesn't often provide that amount of good opportunities a day. Sometime it does give 1-2 nice signals, sometimes 0. So I kind of started to "force" the trades and this didn't end well.
Instead of waiting for a market to become ready to trade, you should instead be looking for a market that is already primed to trade. If you throw futures, stocks, tons of fx pairs you will literally have hundreds of markets to look for opportunity. If thats not enough throw in intra/inter markets futures spreads and you can add a few thousand onto that.

Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Could you briefly describe how you use multi-assets? You watch or trade everything? There is a huge difference.
Firstly I watch and trade everything whether that be futures, fx, stocks, spreads there is very little that misses my radar. Every evening I am running analysis on the daily analysis of around 2000+ stocks, 50+ futures nearly all the fx pairs etc.

Its impossible to briefly describe how I use multi assets. But let me break it down to the core principle which is relative analysis. Analysing a market by absolute price is a very in effective way of doing it. We as humans use relative analysis virtually everyday of our lives, yet we completely negate this concept when viewing the markets. For example is it hot today? When giving the answer to this question you are in fact comparing the days temperature to past temperatures. Are the waves in the sea big today, you can only really say they are big when compared to days when they are small otherwise you would just see them as waves.

When you are trading, you are seeking out opportunities that shouldn’t be highly visible to other participants. As Bruce Kovner says in MW “The less observed, the better the trade.” I see the market as one very big relative value bet. You should be constantly comparing markets relative to something else, whether that be to oner assets, fundamentals, sentiment is down to you.

This is why for example watching what the euro is doing to gauge the strength of the euro is a fruitless exercise. If I am thinking about trading the euro I will look at every single fx pair containing the euro along with many other markets, sentiment, fundamentals. A few weeks I wanted to trade the weakness in Crude. The safest less volatile way of doing this was through the fx market and expressing the same opinion through shorting the loony. Whilst in this position I was constantly listening to any new related to crude as it could instantly affect my position. I could be trading the ES but if Apple comes out with an earnings miss this ill move the ES. I am still in a long Gold trade right now, but I am highly critical of what Coppers doing.

Now to back up what I am saying here objectively is very difficult. So what I have done is taken a few exerts from Market Wizards where the traders there are describing some type of relative analysis, that came into there trade decision analysis. These are conversations with people, whom as far as we can ascertain are, extremely profitable well seasoned traders. Underneath each of these exerts I will identify the the type of relative analysis being carried out.

Marty Schwartz - For example, when the market gets good news and goes down, it means the market is very weak; when it gets bad news and goes up, it means the market is healthy.
Relative to news.

Marty Schwartz - Has a stock held above its most recent low, when the market has penetrated its most recent low? If so, that stock is much healthier than the market. Those are the type of divregences I look for.
Relative to the overall market.

Schwager - What kind of things would tip you off that he is a loser?
Tom Baldwin - Most important, losers don’t work hard enough. Most people walk in and think there is a 50/ 50 chance on any trade. They don’t think there is anything more to it than that. They don’t concentrate. They don’t watch the factors that affect the market. You can see it in their eyes; it is almost as if there is a wall in front of their faces.
Schwager - By factors, do you mean fundamentals?
Tom Baldwin - No. Paying attention to what other markets are doing, such as the Dow Jones or gold. Watching the traders in the pit.
Relative to other markets.

Randy McKay - I watch the market action, using fundamentals as a backdrop. I don’t use fundamentals in the conventional sense. That is, I don’t think, “Supply is too large and the market is going down.” Rather, I watch how the market responds to fundamental information.
Relative to fundamental information.

Randy McKay - During the past summer, soybean prices were trading at relatively low levels just under $ 6.00. In close proximity, we witnessed a dry spell as the critical phase of the growing season approached, and we saw dramatically improved relations with the Soviet Union, which enhanced the chances of increased grain sales to that country. Export sales and the threat of drought have always been the two primary price-boosting factors. Here we had both these factors occurring at the same time, with prices at relatively low levels. Not only did soybeans fail to manage more than a short-lived, moderate rally, but on balance prices actually moved lower. In this context, the more recent price break down to the $ 5.30 level was almost inevitable. If prices couldn’t sustain an advance with large exports expected to the Soviet Union and the threat of a drought, what could possibly rally the market?
Relative to fundamental information.

Randy McKay - I’ve got thirty-eight markets on my screen. If I miss moves in ten of them, there will be ten others that have a price move. The worst thing that can happen to you in the markets is being right and still losing money. That’s the danger in buying on rallies and selling on breaks these days.
Importance of watching multiple markets.

Stanley Drukenmiller - I came into 1991 with positions that couldn’t have been more poorly suited to the market price moves that unfolded in the ensuing months. I was short approximately $ 3 billion in the U.S. and Japanese stock markets, and I was also heavily short in the U.S. and world bond markets. I started to change my market opinion during the first two weeks of 1991. On the way down, the pessimism regarding the U.S. stock market had become extreme. Everybody was talking about how the market would crater if the United States went to war against Iraq. Also, the breadth was not there. Even though the Dow Jones index had fallen to a new recent low, only about eighty of the seventeen hundred New York Stock Exchange stocks had made new lows.
Relative to sentiment and also the action of other stocks.

Schwager - Does a stock have to be stronger than the overall market in order for you to buy it?
Richard Driehaus - Generally speaking, yes. I like to see the stock’s relative strength in the top 10 percent of the market, or at least the top 20 percent.
Relative to other markets.

Victor Sperandeo - To begin, there was a Dow Theory buy signal— the Dow Jones Industrial index had made a new low, but the Transportation index and the S&P 500 had not. In addition, the volume on the break to new lows was relatively light. Also, we had been in a bear market for a long time, and bearish sentiment was pervasive. Finally, bad news was starting to lose its impact on the market— bearish news stories would come out, and stocks would essentially lie flat.
Relative to other markets, sentiment and also how the market was reacting to bad news.

Hopefully this post should be enough, to substantiate my claims that watching many markets and using relative value, to identify marginal change, is time well invested and you will be greatly rewarded for it. Price action as described in this post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8752665#post8752665) - is very difficult to objectively describe, let alone backtest, since it is forever changing and way to dynamic to write down a set of rules for. This is also perhaps why it has been pervasive though time and never decayed like other strategies. You will also find examples to what I have written above in Edwin Lefevre's book ROSO (http://www.amazon.es/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Investment-Classic/dp/0471770884/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1457040140&sr=8-1&keywords=reminiscence+of+a+stock+operator). Another aim of this post is to show you that there is lots of information available in the public domain, that you can access completely free of charge, written by traders who are thousands of times more successful than pretty much any poster/commercial vendor that you will find on ForexFactory.

Hope this helps.
  • #266
  • Mar 3, 2016 4:13pm Mar 3, 2016 4:13pm
@redbaron

Finally who got it right!
  • #267
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:38pm Mar 3, 2016 5:38pm
Quoting redbaron1981
Relative to other markets, sentiment and also how the market was reacting to bad news. Hopefully this post should be enough, to substantiate my claims that watching many markets and using relative value, to identify marginal change, is time well invested and you will be greatly rewarded for it. Price action as described in this post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8752665#post8752665) - is very difficult to objectively describe, let alone backtest, since it is forever changing and way to dynamic to write down a set of rules...
Couldn't agree more. There is no new thing under the sun. Order Flow is just another way of looking at the same stuff other people do. It clicks for some people, others need a different model. Find what works and run with it. If you get stuck, find someone else's brain and experience to borrow.

Books like ROSO and market wizards are awesome resources for aspiring traders and everyone should read them multiple times. But at the end of the day this game IS hard and most people will fail. The argument for a mentor is that in exchange for some of the money you'll lose on your own, you can get someone whos been down the path in front of you to help you avoid the most treacherous terrain.

Remember, no one can guarantee you success in life. Most people are just tryin to make a buck in the most honest way they know how. Keep an open mind, accept responsibility for your own choices, and don't be afraid to admit when your wrong. If you can do that, no matter what challenge life puts in your path, you'll be able to get everything you really want.

Hope it helps.
  • #268
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:39am Mar 4, 2016 1:39am
Quoting redbaron1981
{quote} Thats a good observation. What you should be asking yourself is why are they more volatile. With the rise of Algos and the loose credit, everything has become highly correlated. In other words everything moves the same as everything. When markets move like this, they do not present many opportunities. When these relationships start to break down opportunities become abundant, provided you know how to find them. You will never find them by looking at a single asset. {quote} Instead of waiting for a market to become ready to trade, you should...
Best comment I have read in the past year @ FF.
Thank you for the insight.

I was wondering the following things:

- I remembered that Tom Baldwin mentioned following multiple markets, but wasn't this difficult when someone is standing in the middle of a pit, full of 1k ppl? (At the time pits were not as empty as now) Maybe I should ask Tom
- I myself have also noticed that where there is "nothing to move the market" - e.g: during the overnight session even CL + YM move together. So I completely agree that even if I watch 30 markets I see the same opportunity across the board and thus taking all 30 trades is dangerous, as the outcomes are highly correlated.

Anyway I really liked the idea of expressing the same trade on the best available asset, however as a short term daytrader with 2 screens i would find it difficult to watch 5-10+ markets...
But more than that im the most thankful for this sentence:

"Instead of waiting for a market to become ready to trade, you should instead be looking for a market that is already primed to trade."

This kind of expresses the same idea that Mike Bellafiore expresses in his books. "Stocks in play". They trade assets that are moving or have potential to move. When I was trading 1 pair I made the mistake that when this asset (CL) was not moving (e.g. complete chop for 14 days) I tried to look for ways how I could have known the chop and win/capitalize in the chop... It drove me nuts. Much better is to step aside, wait for the breakout, wait until the market has a clear direction... In the meantime there are shitloads of other assets to trade that are probably trending and ready to trade.

Questions:
- Do you daytrade? Im a daytrader (or at least trying to be ) and I spend usually 2-4h in front of the Monitors. During this time I go for short plays (= im not holding positions overnight etc.) Also due to the same reasons I usually trade with tight stops (5-10 ticks in volatile markets) and these "exotic" stuff usually don't provide those spreads... And FX is way too slow for me. (ATR = 40-60 ticks / day? C'mon...)
- Do you manually analyze all these charts? Or you have written some simple algo that makes the computation for you?

Cheers!
It's all psychology...
  • #269
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:39am Mar 4, 2016 8:39am
It's not easy, but it's worth it:
Attached Image

Http://www.orderflowtrading.com/LearnOrderFlow.aspx
  • #270
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:49am Mar 4, 2016 8:49am
Quoting Darkstar
It's not easy, but it's worth it: {image} Http://www.orderflowtrading.com/LearnOrderFlow.aspx
hello,

your trade went against you and if you are trading big money there is a chances that trade might not come back in your direction, how so yo control it?
NO STOP LOSS TRADER
  • #271
  • Edited 9:59am Mar 4, 2016 8:59am | Edited 9:59am
Order Flow is very easy to find if you know how.
I discovered how to see it on the chart and I am asking nobody nothing (:

Attached Image
  • #272
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:08am Mar 4, 2016 10:08am
Quoting Darkstar
It's not easy, but it's worth it: {image} Http://www.orderflowtrading.com/LearnOrderFlow.aspx
Its not easy?

To do what exactly? Throw up an hourly chart of the YM and say in hindsight where you entered exited. Without giving any information, as to where you would have gotten out, if it went against you let alone call the trade ahead of time...

My MS Paint skills aren't to hot but I am certain I could even do this.

Perhaps we should rewrite the old phrase "Those who can, do. Those who can't teach, or use MS Paint to construct hindsight trades".

Considering that a central point of conversation over the last few weeks has been A. Is DS a real trader and B. Does OFT actually work you are doing verily little to restore its credibility, in fact you are actually making it worse.

Since your material is so incredibly good, then why don't you start posting your actual live trade calls in realtime? If you were to do this say over a 6 month period, it would even give you time to pull out of any drawdown you might be experiencing. The last two weeks have been amazing trading conditions, this week has actually been my personal best. You could have posted some amazing trade calls this week in realtime and completely silenced the naysayers on this thread.

Personally I just can't see why you would continue to post hindsight trade calls, without expecting a fair amount of criticism from others.
  • #273
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:12am Mar 4, 2016 10:12am
Quoting Goldmines1
{quote} hello, your trade went against you and if you are trading big money there is a chances that trade might not come back in your direction, how so yo control it?
​Clearly defined risk.. and lots of discipline.
  • #274
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:17am Mar 4, 2016 10:17am
Quoting redbaron1981
{quote} Its not easy? To do what exactly? Throw up an hourly chart of the YM and say in hindsight where you entered exited. Without giving any information, as to where you would have gotten out, if it went against you let alone call the trade ahead of time... My MS Paint skills aren't to hot but I am certain I could even do this. Perhaps we should rewrite the old phrase "Those who can, do. Those who can't teach, or use MS Paint to construct hindsight trades". Considering that a central point of conversation over the last few weeks has been A. Is...
​

You mean like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-04 (1).png Size: 9 KB


I've been doing it live on the trading floor for 4 years. All called live with analysis.

Why don't I come give live calls here? There is finite liquidity in the world friend, I can't tell everyone how to do it for free. How will I pay my own bills?
  • #275
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:40am Mar 4, 2016 10:40am
Quoting Darkstar
{quote}​You mean like this:
No I don´t mean like this. The definition of hindsight is "understanding of a situation or event only after it has happened or developed."

Quoting Darkstar
{quote}​I've been doing it live on the trading floor for 4 years. All called live with analysis.
I don´t remember all of this from when I was a member. I do recall a portfolio of stock positions you had being removed from view along with the site being shut down, around the time of the minor capitulation we had in August last year

Quoting Darkstar
{quote}Why don't I come give live calls here? There is finite liquidity in the world friend, I can't tell everyone how to do it for free. How will I pay my own bills?
Since according to you liquidity is so finite then why sell your system. You will end up putting yourself out of business?
  • #276
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:28pm Mar 4, 2016 12:28pm
Quoting redbaron1981
{quote} No I dont mean like this. The definition of hindsight is "understanding of a situation or event only after it has happened or developed."
It only seems like hindsight because you get the info like the rest of retail... late. The prediction happens behind closed doors.

{quote} I dont remember all of this from when I was a member. I do recall a portfolio of stock positions you had being removed from view along with the site being shut down, around the time of the minor capitulation we had in August last year
That was a rough time for a lot...
We all go through rough times brother. You can't tell me that having a stable cash flow stream, earned by helping other's realize their dreams, isn't advantageous no matter what your financial situation.

How do you think I made it through the rough summer?

But whatever, the people who are serious will pay to join the group and demonstrate that they have what it takes. Then I can hire them to trade my money and live the same lifestyle for half the work. Its win win for me and a hell of a good opportunity for those who want to join us.
  • #277
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:30pm Mar 4, 2016 1:30pm
The question is not the profit but the risk ^.^
And thus the risk reward
It's all psychology...
  • #278
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:17pm Mar 4, 2016 4:17pm
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Best comment I have read in the past year @ FF. Thank you for the insight. I was wondering the following things: - I remembered that Tom Baldwin mentioned following multiple markets, but wasn't this difficult when someone is standing in the middle of a pit, full of 1k ppl? (At the time pits were not as empty as now) Maybe I should ask Tom - I myself have also noticed that where there is "nothing to move the market" - e.g: during the overnight session even CL + YM move together. So I completely agree that even if I watch 30 markets I see...

The market must not necessarily be in a trend for you to make profits.

The term "trend" is subjective and there are trends in trends depending on which way you choose to look at it. My point is, whether ranging or trending, a good trader should know how to exploit the market's recent/current activity within the confines of his edge.
There is no spoon.
  • #279
  • Mar 5, 2016 1:43am Mar 5, 2016 1:43am
Quoting MosDef
{quote} The market must not necessarily be in a trend for you to make profits. The term "trend" is subjective and there are trends in trends depending on which way you choose to look at it. My point is, whether ranging or trending, a good trader should know how to exploit the market's recent/current activity within the confines of his edge.


Quote
"The market must not necessarily be in a trend for you to make profits."
Absolutely true. You can make money in a choppy market by fading the extremes. However there are lots of ways to milk a cow. I personally hate chops because my potential reward (and thus the overal risk-reward) for a given trade is smaller.

Quote
My point is, whether ranging or trending, a good trader should know how to exploit the market's recent/current activity within the confines of his edge.
That's what I was thinking for a long time, when I was trading one asset only. I believed that I have to be able to make money in the trending period, be that choppy, trending... However this led to the point where after super-narrow days I was still looking for ways how I could have capitalized on those small, tiny moves...

On the other hand I have seen successful traders who trade 1 asset and can trade in these choppy times too. I have seen others who rather trade more assets, so that they are not so dependent on a single one. I believe the whole stuff comes down to personality / trading style...
It's all psychology...
  • #280
  • Edited 2:06am Mar 5, 2016 1:54am | Edited 2:06am
Ranging or trending is an illusion. In reality, there is no trend, there is no range once you have money in the market.
You think the market is trending up, therefore you buy. Immediately the price goes down and takes you out. Again you "work hard" and determine the trend must be down, so you sell. Immediately, the price goes up.
On hindsight and in your mind you clearly see the trend, when you act on it with real money... the trend disappears.
What matters is not what the market is doing, and especially what you think it's doing.
What matters most is the bet you just made.
Trade your account not the market.
The best trading system in the world is the IMS system ==> "It's the money, stupid"
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