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Discovering An Edge

  • #1,081
  • Mar 4, 2016 2:04am Mar 4, 2016 2:04am
Will be looking to add to GBP and USD positions.
Avoiding EURUSD until post NFP.
DAX is a different story... Currently flat but will eye it during London open and morning. Still looking at 9910 target
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,082
  • Mar 4, 2016 2:34am Mar 4, 2016 2:34am
Yesterday I entered a short on GBPNZD @ 20100.
I had a 150 pip SL but it went underwater almost 100 pips. I couldn't add to the position because I was in multiple positions on DAX. Closed it early this morning for +60 but now the retest on London open seems to have failed just below 2100.
Short @ 20920,
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,083
  • Mar 4, 2016 2:37am Mar 4, 2016 2:37am
Quoting vlady1974
Hello Journal, Ive missed you. Trades in play this morning pre London: Long AUDCAD 9864 Long AUDJPY 8391 Short GBPAUD 19225 Long USDCAD 13422
Closed GBPAUD +50
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,084
  • Mar 4, 2016 2:47am Mar 4, 2016 2:47am
Long DAX at pivot 9770
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,085
  • Mar 4, 2016 3:34am Mar 4, 2016 3:34am
Quoting vlady1974
Hello Journal, Ive missed you. Trades in play this morning pre London: Long AUDCAD 9864 Long AUDJPY 8391 Short GBPAUD 19225 Long USDCAD 13422
Added another Long to USDCAD @ 13435
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,086
  • Mar 4, 2016 3:43am Mar 4, 2016 3:43am
7 open trades, that should be enough risk on for now.

No EU trades. I can see that it's spiked. So what. NFP is king.
My view on this based on other commentators is plus ECB comments is that the EUR needs to maintain lower values.
So if markets are going to take it lower, they will do so from higher prices of a certain range. I believe 1.11ish is the top end of it.
The overall trend is down, so the bias remains Short. If I want to long european, then I'd long DAX instead - better R/R

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H.JPG Size: 223 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,087
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:18am Mar 4, 2016 4:18am
I don't trade this pair very often. It swings a bit too wildly for my taste but I have to learn it's vibration and amplitude. I could have added positions at these points given that I've moved stops on some of the open trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD-15M.JPG Size: 209 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,088
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:22am Mar 4, 2016 4:22am
Long EURCAD @ 14747
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,089
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:25am Mar 4, 2016 4:25am
Closed DAX net +34
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,090
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:35am Mar 4, 2016 4:35am
USDCAD going well. Long term target 13550
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD-1H.JPG Size: 224 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,091
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:36am Mar 4, 2016 4:36am
I'm tempted to hedge my GBPNZD short with a short long if S2 is broken and target the DPP but I'm unsure with NFP coming soon.
Hmmm
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,092
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:40am Mar 4, 2016 4:40am
Hey Vlad, it's been a while! Hope you are well. AUD.USD looks like it's itching for a drop. Short at 0.7370.
You reap what you sow.
  • #1,093
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:59am Mar 4, 2016 4:59am
Quoting NorthTrader
Hey Vlad, it's been a while! Hope you are well. AUD.USD looks like it's itching for a drop. Short at 0.7370.
Hey North!

It certainly has! I think the break from FF and trading has been good though. I've kept my eye on it but stepping away I think certainly helps.
I started kicking the longs and shorts again about 2 weeks ago. Was very rusty but it all came back last week but I found it different this time.
I seem to be calmer.

I tried my hand on the AUDUSD this week and lost total 50ish pips. Which I guess was a decent stab but it was all against the bull.
Looking at the chart last night, I think it was a weekly, there's no denying the push up. I decided that I'll take a short on a retrace of a break rather than on a break. Haven't decided what levels yet. I get the feeling it's heading for 7419 and test R2 before the decline.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,094
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:01am Mar 4, 2016 5:01am
Dammit... was working on a spreadsheet and I missed the DAX impulse move.
But... I've longed on 9806 and set TP for R2 9829.
Just pre NFP fun and games.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,095
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:05am Mar 4, 2016 5:05am
Yeah, I started trading actively again about the same time as you. The break did me good I think.

This move up seems weak to me, so I couldn't resist a small short here. But it will probably hit my stop at 0.7385 soon. If so, I'll wait until after NFP.

Edit: stop survived by 2 pips! If it drops from here it'll be my lucky day
You reap what you sow.
  • #1,096
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:09am Mar 4, 2016 5:09am
Quoting vlady1974
Dammit... was working on a spreadsheet and I missed the DAX impulse move. But... I've longed on 9806 and set TP for R2 9829. Just pre NFP fun and games.
Done. That was easy money.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,097
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:10am Mar 4, 2016 5:10am
USDCAD seemed to drop suddenly. I suspect a favourable NFP.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,098
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:12am Mar 4, 2016 5:12am
Quoting NorthTrader
Yeah, I started trading actively again about the same time as you. The break did me good I think. This move up seems weak to me, so I couldn't resist a small short here. But it will probably hit my stop at 0.7385 soon. If so, I'll wait until after NFP. Edit: stop survived by 2 pips! If it drops from here it'll be my lucky day
Hmm, I'm gunning for that R1 7393 level for first level shorts.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,099
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:14am Mar 4, 2016 5:14am
IF it's favourable, I'll short the DAX on bream of R1 and see where it retraces to.
But I have to be careful.... and I may not do it
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,100
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:18am Mar 4, 2016 5:18am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hmm, I'm gunning for that R1 7393 level for first level shorts.
Yeah, it was not to be. SL -15. I'll go and iron my shirts and try again later.
You reap what you sow.
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