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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #361
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:25am Mar 3, 2016 8:25am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} just a note the 30% and 50% is not set in concrete its a gut feeling when trading like the latest rise a fall was going to happen before the trend was going to go back up to sucker people to get shorts and that did happen so lets go one step up , when we trade the broker is working against you so greedy greeeedy keeps you in the trade making you a profit in the short but in a 5min instant your short is now a loser trade when you could have money in your bank , trade sell trade sell
Yes, that is definitely for the more experienced trader. Hopefully people read and remember what you're writing after getting some time behind the charts.

Cheers!
  • #362
  • Edited 10:01am Mar 3, 2016 8:52am | Edited 10:01am
And price is still going up, above .7350 now! Short at your own risk.

updated because we are at .7360 now.

Updated again, .7370.
  • #363
  • Mar 3, 2016 9:54am Mar 3, 2016 9:54am
Regardless of what tomorrow's NFP data is...serious damage has been done on the Aussie this week with this 250+ pip rally in 3 days. Even if NFP is Great for the USD, a 250pip drop on Aussie only puts it back at last weeks major support level of .7100. And there is still major support at .7000 from 2 weeks ago. There is nothing on my charts saying the uptrend is over. Will we get some pullbacks? Of course, but this uptrend has some good momentum. Trade wisely!
  • #364
  • Mar 3, 2016 11:41am Mar 3, 2016 11:41am
Risked a small short last night against PAs advice and paid the price,should have learnt by now.
  • #365
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:53pm Mar 3, 2016 7:53pm
Quoting buster48
Risked a small short last night against PAs advice and paid the price,should have learnt by now.

I hope you kept the loss small. And for the record, I'm not always right...I have my share of losses too. But the signs were pretty strong this week and last that being Long Aussie was the correct trade.

That being said, All bets are off for NFP tomorrow. If you trade, Trade Smart!
  • #366
  • Edited 9:32pm Mar 3, 2016 8:55pm | Edited 9:32pm
Just one thing to add...more worse than expected news for AUD tonight, yet not follow through on the initial small selloff and now we are up higher than before news. Same pattern over and over again. I will also add in there it's a pretty small range though.

update: I take that back, we just broke above yesterday's highs of the day. Aussie still fighting to go higher.
  • #367
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:34am Mar 4, 2016 7:34am
Interesting Price Action again...Good USD data, Aussie up...but at the same time, Euro and Pound went down. Nothing to do on the initial reaction, wait for candle closes for better idea of price action.
  • #368
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:46am Mar 4, 2016 7:46am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} ...IF price is going to drop, it will be on Friday for NFP...but that will be too late however. Even if price were to drop 200pips on Friday(highly unlikely), that would only move price down around .7070 on Aussie which is still WELL above December/January lows. And if price doesn't drop Friday, I can see .7400-7500 as the next targets as early as next week for .7500. Once again, Price Action is King and it's been trending up for weeks...my bias remains the same, buy the dips. Be careful trading NFP, if you trade it! Cheers!
Regarding the last couple of sentences above, while I tend to get the direction right a majority of the time...my biggest flaw is timing. I didn't see price rallying up to the ".7400-7500" area until next week. If I can ever figure out my timing of the market, the sky is the limit! But I missed out on much of the ride up this week as I didn't expect a 300pip move straight up this week. I was expecting more of a range. Oh well, we'll all try again next week. Hope everyone has a great weekend!

Cheers!
  • #369
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:05am Mar 4, 2016 8:05am
1hr candle just closed, Bullish engulfing candle. I have nothing on my charts saying to short. Price is too high to enter long right now, I'd look to place a stop loss under 7350 so would need a pullback around .7380 to keep the s/l around 30pips. If price did pullback that far, I wouldn't just right in at that level though...I'd like to see some type of candle/chart pattern to get me in.

On a side note...I'm still scratching my head as to why 69% of FF traders are short A/U? I also have been reading a couple other Aussie threads and a majority of those traders went short(stopped out or in a losing trade now) or looking for shorts on Aussie. To each their own, but it just doesn't make sense to me trying to pick a top when you can make money trading WITH the trend a lot easier. But again, to each their own.
  • #370
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:12am Mar 4, 2016 9:12am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Regarding the last couple of sentences above, while I tend to get the direction right a majority of the time...my biggest flaw is timing. I didn't see price rallying up to the ".7400-7500" area until next week. If I can ever figure out my timing of the market, the sky is the limit! But I missed out on much of the ride up this week as I didn't expect a 300pip move straight up this week. I was expecting more of a range. Oh well, we'll all try again next week. Hope everyone has a great weekend! Cheers!
Well I don't know how good is your timing, but seems that you're doing a very good job trading!
  • #371
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:14am Mar 4, 2016 9:14am
Quoting DavidRP
{quote} Well I don't know how good is your timing, but seems that you're doing a very good job trading!
Making the right call on here versus actually pulling the trigger on my account are two different things. hahaha We haven't really had any good pullbacks since Monday/Tuesday for me to get in long, so unfortunately I've just watched from the sidelines.
  • #372
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:09am Mar 4, 2016 10:09am
Quoting PA is King
Regardless of what tomorrow's NFP data is...serious damage has been done on the Aussie this week with this 250+ pip rally in 3 days. Even if NFP is Great for the USD, a 250pip drop on Aussie only puts it back at last weeks major support level of .7100. And there is still major support at .7000 from 2 weeks ago. There is nothing on my charts saying the uptrend is over. Will we get some pullbacks? Of course, but this uptrend has some good momentum. Trade wisely!

320pips in 5 straight bullish daily candles on Aussie this week! Nothing has changed on my charts as we are still making Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Until that changes, Buy The Dips for the safest trade out there!
  • #373
  • Mar 5, 2016 7:02am Mar 5, 2016 7:02am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} 320pips in 5 straight bullish daily candles on Aussie this week! Nothing has changed on my charts as we are still making Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Until that changes, Buy The Dips for the safest trade out there!

Hey PA thanks for all the good advice and accurate calls you've been making here. Well done Buddy. I've put a post on Tashkent's thread you might be interested in. I won't waste space pasting it here, I know you have a finger on the pulse. I'll just let you know that in spite of changing my play a couple of times, i made a few pips going up, lost a few more than that looking down, but employed good risk management, and fortunately put a bit on the USD/CAD to drop. Going to Lighting Ridge next week to indulge one of my other interests, so probably won't be on here, but will leave a bit on the AUD. Buy on the dips.
  • #374
  • Mar 5, 2016 9:23am Mar 5, 2016 9:23am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Hey PA thanks for all the good advice and accurate calls you've been making here. Well done Buddy. I've put a post on Tashkent's thread you might be interested in. I won't waste space pasting it here, I know you have a finger on the pulse. I'll just let you know that in spite of changing my play a couple of times, i made a few pips going up, lost a few more than that looking down, but employed good risk management, and fortunately put a bit on the USD/CAD to drop. Going to Lighting Ridge next week to indulge one of my other interests,...
Good post Blackopal. Always glad to hear traders managing their risk well. I'm not sure I would advise buying Aussie at a high level though just in case it pulls back. In fact, buy the dips is what we should wait for. Unfortunately sometimes, like this past week, there are no pullbacks and you just have to sit and watch from the sidelines. But there will be more chances to come. Enjoy your time at Lighting Ridge!
  • #375
  • Mar 8, 2016 7:05am Mar 8, 2016 7:05am
Anyone buy the dip on Aussie when it pulled back to the 1hr 50ema and stalled??? Easy 30-50pips!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #376
  • Mar 8, 2016 8:32am Mar 8, 2016 8:32am
There might be a bigger correction coming, I'm still bullish on Aussie. But to "buy a dip" you need a correction/pullback lower. If price can get below .7400 we should get a better correction.

I forgot to add on the chart, it looks like a possible M pattern for the correction lower...again, that's if price can get below .7400.
Happy Trading!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #377
  • Mar 8, 2016 11:34am Mar 8, 2016 11:34am
As expected, price just couldn't get down below .7400. Every dip just forms a Higher Low and there is no follow through on any selling with Aussie. Bulls are still in full control!

A close above .7460 would be the 7th straight bullish daily candle. And we are currently in our 7th out of the last 8 weekly bullish candles in which Aussie has climbed over 650pips since mid-January's lows.
  • #378
  • Mar 8, 2016 11:49am Mar 8, 2016 11:49am
Quoting PA is King
As expected, price just couldn't get down below .7400. Every dip just forms a Higher Low and there is no follow through on any selling with Aussie. Bulls are still in full control! A close above .7460 would be the 7th straight bullish daily candle. And we are currently in our 7th out of the last 8 weekly bullish candles in which Aussie has climbed over 650pips since mid-January's lows.
For bearish you think we need to close our shorts trades? On daily you can see double top what still is not broken.
  • #379
  • Edited 2:07pm Mar 8, 2016 12:34pm | Edited 2:07pm
Nice informative charts as always PA,.,Thanks.
  • #380
  • Mar 8, 2016 12:36pm Mar 8, 2016 12:36pm
copper down, oz stable. not for long though imo.
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