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  • #321
  • Feb 29, 2016 6:49pm Feb 29, 2016 6:49pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} news was bad and china news in10 mins
Yes indeed, for weeks we've seen bad AUD data and it usually provides a small dip that is bid right back up. So is the Aussie really that strong or are the market makers artificially supporting it??? Double bottom around .7100 so far tonight. Guess we'll find out within an hour if we go back up to .7200 or break through support.
  • #322
  • Feb 29, 2016 8:04pm Feb 29, 2016 8:04pm
Double bottom near .7100 seems pretty strong. Break above yesterday's high near .7170 brings .7200 easily in reach.
  • #323
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:58am Mar 1, 2016 5:58am
Quoting dab
{quote} Sorry to be picky but wondering what your chart is showing for the week 3 weeks before week just ended ie week starting 1st Feb - mine on FF showing open 7082, high 7242, low 7002, close 7064 - not quite what I'd call bullish.
Here you go dab, this is how my weekly chart looks. Last week(after Friday's selloff) was the first bearish candle in 6 weeks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproWeekly 001.png Size: 139 KB
  • #324
  • Mar 1, 2016 6:00am Mar 1, 2016 6:00am
Stay story different week, Aussie has bad data Sunday night and Monday night but failed to follow through on any selling. My Bias is still to buy the dip on Aussie near the bottom of the up trend. I've attached a 4hr chart showing how price has been trending up still. It also hasn't been able to stay below the 200ma or make a Lower Low so far. Lots of buyers on the dips still. It's also worth noting the trip top around .7250 as well. Could be a place to try shorts.

Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH4 005.png Size: 146 KB
  • #325
  • Mar 1, 2016 6:07am Mar 1, 2016 6:07am
Here's one other chart for you....remember last week I said to look at the Aussie Daily chart for early and mid February??? Notice what happens every time there is a 1 day selloff on Aussie? Price spends the next few days rallying. There is NEVER any follow through on the selling. Something changed in the market back in the middle of January when price bottomed out around .6830. Price rallied right back up above .7000 since then and hasn't been able to close on the Daily chart below .7000 for the entire month of February. Those are just some other patterns and price action observations to think about.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproDaily 001.png Size: 120 KB
  • #326
  • Edited 8:18am Mar 1, 2016 7:59am | Edited 8:18am
No surprise here...Aussie dipped down after good US data but has rallied back up nearly 40pips. Same pattern as the past few weeks. Enjoy the pips while you can, you'll only be wrong once.


I stand corrected, we are now up 50pips after the USD news dip. Big 1hr candle Pinbar for bulls that last hour.
  • #327
  • Mar 1, 2016 9:56am Mar 1, 2016 9:56am
Quoting PA is King
Here's one other chart for you....remember last week I said to look at the Aussie Daily chart for early and mid February??? Notice what happens every time there is a 1 day selloff on Aussie? Price spends the next few days rallying. There is NEVER any follow through on the selling. Something changed in the market back in the middle of January when price bottomed out around .6830. Price rallied right back up above .7000 since then and hasn't been able to close on the Daily chart below .7000 for the entire month of February. Those are just some other...
Thanks for these things PA it's good to have things pointed out that some of us probably wouldn't have noticed.
  • #328
  • Mar 1, 2016 11:00am Mar 1, 2016 11:00am
My pleasure! I hope it helps some people.
  • #329
  • Mar 1, 2016 12:43pm Mar 1, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Here you go dab, this is how my weekly chart looks. Last week(after Friday's selloff) was the first bearish candle in 6 weeks. {image}
Thanks PA, I've always thought it interesting that on daily charts people will have different chart patterns based on different time zones of the same price action. I'd always thought that weekly would be the same due to presumably a common open and close but with different brokers maybe that's not entirely the case.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #330
  • Mar 1, 2016 12:54pm Mar 1, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Thanks PA, I've always thought it interesting that on daily charts people will have different chart patterns based on different time zones of the same price action. I'd always thought that weekly would be the same due to presumably a common open and close but with different brokers maybe that's not entirely the case.
That's very true. Even with just an hour difference in closing times between brokers price/candles can look different.
  • #331
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:51pm Mar 1, 2016 4:51pm
When you get bad AUD data, it barely sells off and never stays down. You get slightly better data and it rallies 70 pips. That should tell you what you need to know.
  • #332
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:11pm Mar 1, 2016 5:11pm
Quoting PA is King
When you get bad AUD data, it barely sells off and never stays down. You get slightly better data and it rallies 70 pips. That should tell you what you need to know.
It is 50 pips, and just going back to level it was a week ago, why did it fall 100 pips last week with no significant news and not stay at .724?
  • #333
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:47pm Mar 1, 2016 5:47pm
Quoting PA is King
When you get bad AUD data, it barely sells off and never stays down. You get slightly better data and it rallies 70 pips. That should tell you what you need to know.
Another thing to note it also drops alot faster than it does rising.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #334
  • Mar 1, 2016 6:41pm Mar 1, 2016 6:41pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Another thing to note it also drops alot faster than it does rising.
Stop hunts by the market makers my friend.
  • #335
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:11pm Mar 1, 2016 7:11pm
Failure to break through double top formation at .7260 region, a new 3rd top is formed at .7240 region.

I'll be expecting another drop to come as long price do not break above double top.

Cheers!
  • #336
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:25pm Mar 1, 2016 7:25pm
Quoting SkyrEk
Failure to break through double top formation at .7260 region, a new 3rd top is formed at .7240 region. I'll be expecting another drop to come as long price do not break above double top. Cheers!
That could very well happen. Here's what I'm watching. I have a breakout to the upside bias based on the fact that price has been trending up and that no matter what bad news AUD has or what good USD news there is, Aussie keeps rallying from any dips. It will have to breakout one way or another soon though!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH4 006.png Size: 130 KB
  • #337
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:28pm Mar 1, 2016 7:28pm
Quoting redalert
{quote} It is 50 pips, and just going back to level it was a week ago, why did it fall 100 pips last week with no significant news and not stay at .724?
.7163 up to .7234 is 71pips to be exact.
  • #338
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:35pm Mar 1, 2016 7:35pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} That could very well happen. Here's what I'm watching. I have a breakout to the upside bias based on the fact that price has been trending up and that no matter what bad news AUD has or what good USD news there is, Aussie keeps rallying from any dips. It will have to breakout one way or another soon though! {image}
Agree, time will tell.
I'm more biased on the short side
  • #339
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:54pm Mar 1, 2016 7:54pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Agree, time will tell. I'm more biased on the short side
Anything can happen. we do have some major US news at the end of the week!
  • #340
  • Edited Mar 2, 2016 3:40am Mar 1, 2016 8:20pm | Edited Mar 2, 2016 3:40am
I do believe Aussie is going to go up when London opens tonight. A few more hours to find out, but there hasn't been much of selling since early US session.

...while, my timing was a little off, got a slight rally up until London open and then a small selloff.
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