My Trading Questions

1.) "Better US data needed to push EUR/USD lower SocGen
25 February 2016, 12:42
Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, notes that the yesterday afternoons release of soft US new home sales for January (and a soft Markit services PMI) stopped the dollars rally in its tracks somewhat, with EUR/USD crawling back over 1.10 and even GBP/USD finding a modicum of short-term stability.

Key Quotes

A USD 1.5pbl jump in oil prices during the afternoon helped equities and higher-beta currencies. The result is that this morning, despite a 6% fall in the Shanghai composite index, and a small fall back in oil prices, FX markets are pretty quiet for a change.

The soft US data played a major role in stopping G10FX trends in their tracks. That places a bit more importance on the data in the days ahead and today we see jobless claims (exp 265k) the Kansas Fed index and durable goods orders (exp a bounce across the board, led by aircraft orders, with ex transportation +1.5% vs. -1% last month). If the data are robust, EUR/USD will break back below 1.10 and resume its cautious journey towards 1.08."

So the first question is... the news was released after the rally... does this mean there were people who knew the numbers prior to the news release? The news release was after the rally.

first: price moves because of orders, not because of news, so such a move can happen at any time , and second: why do you connect the rally with the news release? Havent you seen before, that there are major releases when on the surface, nothing happens and price barely moves, while sometimes it can spike 50-100 pips out of nowhere. Your first question can lead to a very deep discussion regarding why prices are in fact moving, do the news/fundamentals have an impact, how much of an impact, how does it happen exactly and many other questions like - do those news really matter for your trading.. But in any way - expecting some logical move right on news time is quite naive. It happens rarely. You have been active here for a long time and I am surprised you are not aware of those things. Do some more research. All the best

At least I see I am not alone to think the same.

Most traders think the move is due to the news ... which is wrong ... Price moves because of the traders reaction at a news events.

Let's suppose at a big event no traders react, the price will stay flat ... That's all theory but just for the example.

I agree with the views described above. Only a small addition of opinion. Yes price moves because of orders, but not only. This is more of an emotional component of news. And also there are fundamentals to which the market reacts independently of people's attitudes.

if nobody does anything, eurusd isn't going anywhere. even if a tsunami hits the white h0use.

its not the GDP, its not someones jabbering, believe it or not - its not even the 200 EMA

2.) Question numeros dos.

There is a bid and there is an ask. If I want to buy at market, I pay ask if I want to sell at market I get paid bid. Here's what I don't understand...

If the trend is up, I want to buy, that means I need to find someone to sell to me. I pay ask, and someone sells to me at that price. But why would anyone be stupid enough to sell to me in an uptrend?

I basically don't understand why prices move. There should in theory be no market if everyone follows the trend.

What are the odds of the a hedger entering the market with the exact same volume that I'm after at the exact time of my request for a trade? Pretty slim... so why do prices move?

Hope I explained myself clearly enough.

There are always buyers and sellers..... if a market is trending up, your buy could be someones sell that bought in much earlier and hes taking his profit at that time. It could also be someones shares that hes losing his ass on but its now going up alittle so hes selling while his loss is now alittle smaller or could be simply someone trading on a different time frame and the uptrend that you are trading is irrelevant to his trade.