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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #161
  • Feb 25, 2016 5:49pm Feb 25, 2016 5:49pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} I've been so confident with this trade on ugly down days, so imagine how confident i am about it now Looking for more upside ... I'm not done yet with this one {image}
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} 0.78972 is gone!! Will be booking the profits soon This was one hell of a ride
Believe it or not, I'm still holding on to my longs (even added 1 more position today)
I hope I'm not getting too greedy here
  • #162
  • Feb 25, 2016 11:56pm Feb 25, 2016 11:56pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey Keziahpie, Here's a zoomed in AUDJPY H4 Chart I wouldn't be surprised at all to size a huge down move on Friday a 200+ pip move isn't a surprise on this pair I am willing to bet the house on that? Not really Based on my calculation we should see much more weakness; even if it doesn't manage to break 79 tomorrow, the bias remains to the downside going into next week. A confirmed break above the channel will delay the drop for a while; if we stay within the channel then we're probably gonna see sub 79 levels on Friday {image}
Hi Jay

Long time no see，I want to ask do you use SL?

Best Regards.
  • #163
  • Feb 26, 2016 12:38am Feb 26, 2016 12:38am
Quoting FX-Jay
Also congrats on the yen trade, should be in nice profits so far.
Thanks. I took profit at 113 though, just in case. Will long again if it reaches 112.50, and/or breaks 113 decisively.
Gold was a good run but only low leverage ETFs because I wasn't trading actively until recently. But even with ETFs it was well worth it!
Short the AUD now. Let's see.
You reap what you sow.
  • #164
  • Feb 26, 2016 2:04am Feb 26, 2016 2:04am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Thanks. I took profit at 113 though, just in case. Will long again if it reaches 112.50, and/or breaks 113 decisively. Gold was a good run but only low leverage ETFs because I wasn't trading actively until recently. But even with ETFs it was well worth it! Short the AUD now. Let's see.


Hey North. Good to see you.
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #165
  • Edited 8:23am Feb 26, 2016 3:03am | Edited 8:23am
testing a 1min 5min trade

1min zones with a static 1 pip k clear at greater than 98% in 24hrs

Check it on KPRSA's indy

h=10 and right h=1440 on 1min

let's see what happens
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1n.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5.png Size: 100 KB
Attached Image
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #166
  • Feb 26, 2016 3:19am Feb 26, 2016 3:19am
come on baby!

You can do it!!! Push!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5w.png Size: 73 KB
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #167
  • Feb 26, 2016 3:31am Feb 26, 2016 3:31am
  • #168
  • Feb 26, 2016 4:28am Feb 26, 2016 4:28am
Still on the train
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: almost.png Size: 53 KB
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #169
  • Feb 26, 2016 5:12am Feb 26, 2016 5:12am
OUT with profits to smile about

I will not get back in until another setup points me that direction...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5done.png Size: 62 KB
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #170
  • Feb 26, 2016 5:20am Feb 26, 2016 5:20am
Stopped on 15 smoothed MA trailing stop

Why no 2nd attempt at this point see picture.

OK lets see what the AUD/JPY daily is going to do today...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Why.png Size: 70 KB
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #171
  • Feb 26, 2016 8:01am Feb 26, 2016 8:01am
Sopped the rest of those trades up with a biscuit after support was broken.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5 win.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5.png Size: 76 KB
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #172
  • Feb 26, 2016 8:06am Feb 26, 2016 8:06am
Quoting BillYon
Sopped the rest of those trades up with a biscuit after support was broken.

wow nice trades mate... congrats .. continue posting then other guys can learn from u .. like me those images helps lots thanks ..
  • #173
  • Feb 26, 2016 8:21am Feb 26, 2016 8:21am
Quoting us fantasy
{quote} wow nice trades mate... congrats .. continue posting then other guys can learn from u .. like me those images helps lots thanks ..

Thanks.

When Jay post his signals try to find how he derives them. This will also help much more. There is quite a bunch to work with and develop from here.

So now you have an idea go and find a high probability signal and post it here to sharpen your sword. I still have much to learn so...
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #174
  • Feb 26, 2016 10:21am Feb 26, 2016 10:21am
Curious how you're feeling about AUD/JPY Jay. It's pushed near the highs today when I was expecting a drop down. Obviously there's plenty of hours left in the day but I'm starting to think it may maintain these levels way into next week before we see any significant down turn.
  • #175
  • Feb 26, 2016 1:59pm Feb 26, 2016 1:59pm
Quoting Monteverde
Curious how you're feeling about AUD/JPY Jay. It's pushed near the highs today when I was expecting a drop down. Obviously there's plenty of hours left in the day but I'm starting to think it may maintain these levels way into next week before we see any significant down turn.
Going to stay heavily short going into next week.The next move down will be caused by jpy strength rather then AUD weakness
  • #176
  • Feb 26, 2016 2:02pm Feb 26, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting blueface
{quote} Hi Jay Long time no see，I want to ask do you use SL? Best Regards.
Hey Blueface,For long term trend trades i don't use any fixed price SL Best,Jay
  • #177
  • Feb 26, 2016 2:06pm Feb 26, 2016 2:06pm
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Thanks. I took profit at 113 though, just in case. Will long again if it reaches 112.50, and/or breaks 113 decisively. Gold was a good run but only low leverage ETFs because I wasn't trading actively until recently. But even with ETFs it was well worth it! Short the AUD now. Let's see.
Those AUD shorts should be doing great! I don't have any solid AUD trade, but I'd rather see it go down rather than up
  • #178
  • Feb 26, 2016 2:10pm Feb 26, 2016 2:10pm
Positions that have been mentioned here that I'll be holding over the weekend:

1- USDJPY shorts for sub 111 levels
2- AUDJPY shorts for sub 79 levels
3- EURGBP longs for a new high

Bonus: Loaded new GBPCHF shorts for the 1.3750 target
  • #179
  • Feb 26, 2016 3:22pm Feb 26, 2016 3:22pm
I think the EURAUD, EURJPY, EURUSD and USDJPY starting for LONGS now.... what do you think Jay?
  • #180
  • Feb 26, 2016 9:10pm Feb 26, 2016 9:10pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Hey North. Good to see you.
Hey Bill, thanks. Hope you've been well. Looks like you're trading great at the moment!

Just a friendly warning about the M1 TZ trade you mentioned above. h-left=10 and h-right=1440, with k-min=1, does indeed produce a fantastic hit rate of > 98%. But please remember that most of the TZs are resolved after a very short retrace. If you wait for a retrace of 70 pips, as in your trade, then the probability of hitting the TZ is MUCH lower, actually 48% according to the stats I've just run for the previous six-month period (which assumes that your stop is at 140 pips).

I'm sure you already realise this, but just mentioning it in case someone new to TZs drops by and starts marvelling at the amazing probabilities. I've always said that you have to know exactly what the probability is measuring before trusting it with your hard-earned cash!

Not trying to knock TZs or any of the indis here of course, because they are interesting and do have their uses. But like with all methods, it helps a lot if you're a good trader to begin with
You reap what you sow.
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