Why it is possible to predict price movement? | Page 51 | Forex Factory

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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #1,001
  • Feb 24, 2016 1:53pm Feb 24, 2016 1:53pm
hilarious how long a thread can get over a matter with 4 distinct variables: UP or DOWN and you're either WRONG or RIGHT.

50 pages....all about the 4,000,000 ways from sunday you can or can't possibly predict that you'll be UP and WRONG, UP and RIGHT, DOWN and WRONG or DOWN and RIGHT.

...no wonder we don't get anything done as a society...lol....
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #1,002
  • Feb 24, 2016 2:48pm Feb 24, 2016 2:48pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
hilarious how long a thread can get over a matter with 4 distinct variables: UP or DOWN and you're either WRONG or RIGHT. 50 pages....all about the 4,000,000 ways from sunday you can or can't possibly predict that you'll be UP and WRONG, UP and RIGHT, DOWN and WRONG or DOWN and RIGHT. ...no wonder we don't get anything done as a society...lol....
VERY TRUE
  • #1,003
  • Feb 27, 2016 3:06pm Feb 27, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting zacorbul
{quote} LOL 4-5 mnths ago I had a very similar argument discussion with a friend who it a prof of mathematics at Leeds University. He was so certain that market is random and never trade it himself. Just read papers of his fellow mathematicianst hat said so. Many ppl just reiterate what others said withoud first hand experience. Proved him wrong ^^.
Care to say which professor?
  • #1,004
  • Mar 2, 2016 11:23pm Mar 2, 2016 11:23pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
hilarious how long a thread can get over a matter with 4 distinct variables: UP or DOWN and you're either WRONG or RIGHT. 50 pages....all about the 4,000,000 ways from sunday you can or can't possibly predict that you'll be UP and WRONG, UP and RIGHT, DOWN and WRONG or DOWN and RIGHT. ...no wonder we don't get anything done as a society...lol....
So, you don't put an end to it either
  • #1,005
  • Mar 2, 2016 11:34pm Mar 2, 2016 11:34pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
hilarious how long a thread can get over a matter with 4 distinct variables: UP or DOWN and you're either WRONG or RIGHT. 50 pages....all about the 4,000,000 ways from sunday you can or can't possibly predict that you'll be UP and WRONG, UP and RIGHT, DOWN and WRONG or DOWN and RIGHT. ...no wonder we don't get anything done as a society...lol....
It takes having lived a certain amount of time to see these things.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,006
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:09am Mar 3, 2016 6:09am
Quoting CindyXXXX
One day a prominent Swords Smith came to a small town in the South of the great continent in Fookbook. A small boy asked his father "daddy, why has Earl the Grey traveled thousands of miles to come to our town?" The father answered his boy "son, I think he must have a mistress here" A couple of days later the boy saw the Sword Smith in the street and couldn't help but ask him; "Mr Grey, what on heavens earth is someone like you doing here?" "Little boy, I have traveled thousands of miles to be here and everyone I meet asks me the same question,...
There is no place called Fookbook, at least not on our planet.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #1,007
  • Mar 3, 2016 9:49am Mar 3, 2016 9:49am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Somewhere in the universe.. I'm 100% sure there is
That's true if the universe is infinit, but that hasn't been proven yet, therefore i cannot agree.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #1,008
  • Oct 14, 2016 3:01am Oct 14, 2016 3:01am
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #1,009
  • Oct 14, 2016 3:12am Oct 14, 2016 3:12am
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #1,010
  • Oct 14, 2016 10:10pm Oct 14, 2016 10:10pm
Thanks for posting again CJ. (Especially thanks for the maps.)
Good Trading
  • #1,011
  • Oct 15, 2016 8:32pm Oct 15, 2016 8:32pm
Hi guys
Nice little corner here away from the frey.Like to share my events for this week coming up

Monday ‬1:35pmEST ‬EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
‬Whenever he speaks we pay attention

5:10pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
8:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
both events will effect the Aussie dollar.I like the fact Gov lowe speaks earlier so we could get a feel how this might move until 8.30 pm

Monday 5:45pm NZD CPI q/q 0.0% 0.4%
Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers;Note that forecast is negative.I have long time shorts on NC and this could break that tough 93 hopefully to 92
Tues 8:30pm GDT Price Index last action -3.0%
Dairy action effects NZD high impact last action was negative and NU dropped over 100pips in hours.
Thurs 8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference

This week is very heavy GBP news
If you still have EG shorts this week may push finally down like 200pips south

Tues 4:30am GBP CPI y/y 0.9% previous 0.6 positive forecast here

Weds 4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.3% no change here
Claimant Count Change 3.4K (2.4K previous) slight negative here.Less is better
Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month
Unemployment Rate 4.9% (4.9% previous)

8:30pm AUD Employment Chang, 15.2K -3.9K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.7% 5.6%
Employment change is very positive but unemployment rate forecast is slightly negative.This could be a miss bag data canceling each-other.

CAD heavy news but in my view as long as crude remains high above 50 or 49.50 CAD will remain strong.Rate will remain .5 no surprise there

China

Tues CNY GDP q/y 6.7% 6.7% very high impact if positive AUD and NZD may gain
Industrial Production y/y 6.4%6.3%

Wow this is going to be one challenging week.If Draghi becomes little more hawkish we could see Euro gain from recent drops.I think correction is likely.
AUD could get even stronger if Chinese data comes out positive however if Aussie data comes out negative this could cancel each other
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,012
  • Nov 25, 2016 2:16am Nov 25, 2016 2:16am
Quoting alexx90
I tell you a truth. People that are really successful are not of this world, they are aliens. Human mind is not able to achieve such success. {image} This isn't the truth but I'm sure you thought for a moment it was this happens because you don't know what you are doing. What is the truth? --> it is very simple to inject ideas inside people's mind.
I think I can achieve it. Seriously.
  • #1,013
  • Nov 25, 2016 2:18am Nov 25, 2016 2:18am
Quoting Al.En
Predicting the market movement is possible because there is a fundamental and technical parameters of its motion. Analyze the decreased or increase of the rate in the United States, one can understand how it will affect the US dollar (for example). Predict possible because nothing new is happening in the market, only up or down, and after a time, you can see a repeat on the move, but this is just what makes our brain, imagination. So I think.
Excellent.
  • #1,014
  • Mar 29, 2017 8:20pm Mar 29, 2017 8:20pm
You don't need to exactly predict the market outcome to be profitable in Forex
There is no scientific method to know something in advance in the market with a 100% certainty. There would be no Forex market if you could know the exact currency rates beforehand. Trading is not the game of certainties; it’s a game of odds. One of the first things that new traders learn is to think in the terms of probabilities and risk-to-reward ratios.
  • #1,015
  • Jun 16, 2017 12:25am Jun 16, 2017 12:25am
It is NOT POSSIBLE to predict price movement. If it were, markets would not even exist - price would go immediately to the "right" value and stay there. If everyone knew the price of some asset had to go up, who would short the market? Answer: nobody. But without sellers, how could buyers go long? Answer: they couldn't. So if prices were predictable, there wouldn't be a market - both buyers and sellers would be locked out.

I'm amazed that this is actually even a thread on FF. You people are trading the most sophisticated market on Earth, yet you lack even a basic understanding of what markets are. It's like a person who didn't even take junior high school biology trying to do brain surgery. No wonder you blow your accounts...
  • #1,016
  • Edited 5:30pm Jul 19, 2017 4:53pm | Edited 5:30pm
Premium Service.... What a crock of shit. Keep being suckers. I won't say I told you so....


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SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #1,017
  • Aug 25, 2017 7:13am Aug 25, 2017 7:13am
KingJay .. go back to sham website with Captain Cracker Jack. You guys are laughable.

......and how FF hasn't made Captain Cracker Jack commercial is beyond me....
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #1,018
  • Aug 27, 2017 7:45am Aug 27, 2017 7:45am
Quoting kk007
This sounds a simple question, but it is not indeed. There are a lot of trading methods claim working. Nevertheless, I wonder in general what logic these methods based on in predicting price movement. Can anyone give me a good answer? Thanks, kk007
Study quantitative analysis, it's not about predicting price movement it is about being right often enough to gain an edge, for example, my systems typically have a win loss ratio in the region of 60%, I cannot tell you which trades will win or lose just that on average 60% of them win.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #1,019
  • Aug 29, 2017 4:51pm Aug 29, 2017 4:51pm
LOL stochastic models are meant to predict , but you don't have to be right every single time you open a position.
  • #1,020
  • Sep 1, 2017 3:54pm Sep 1, 2017 3:54pm
Quoting moneykiller
{quote} So, you don't put an end to it either
Something that has gone on this long eventually needs to slow down and stop happening but I guess it's not going to happen because of me.

There's a trading lesson in that.

"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
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