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  • #12,141
  • Feb 23, 2016 2:41pm Feb 23, 2016 2:41pm
Okay, okay, okay, so it's a little early to start diving into April setups, but with this slight uptick in volatility (and not a helluvalot that I'm interested in doing), there's no time like the present. This is the first layer of my April SPY iron condor "onion":

SPY April 15th 173/177/203/207 iron condor
Probability of Profit: 62%
Max Profit: $102/contract
Buying Power Effect: $298/contract

Looking to layer these buggers on over time and then mix and match short call sides with short put sides to buy out of as a unit when decently profitable.

Filled for a 1.02 credit ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,142
  • Feb 23, 2016 10:06pm Feb 23, 2016 10:06pm
BORING BORING BORING /ES weekly chart, bigass leveljumper weekly 120+ pt bear candles, followed by sideways action, no continuation, market is engineered to prevent bear runs, so boring, ....selling put spreads the week after big dumps has been money....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-23_2156ES.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,143
  • Feb 24, 2016 10:23am Feb 24, 2016 10:23am
Quoting The Fool
BORING BORING BORING /ES weekly chart, bigass leveljumper weekly 120+ pt bear candles, followed by sideways action, no continuation, market is engineered to prevent bear runs, so boring, ....selling put spreads the week after big dumps has been money.... {image}
Yeah, man... plus you get enourmous vol skew to the downside...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,144
  • Edited 12:44pm Feb 24, 2016 12:17pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting The Fool
filled a May/June USO $12 call calendar for 7c, Big Kahuna idea, as above, will wait to see if we get another sub $30 slide & sell Apr bull puts, $8/7 or $7/6, to fund the boondoggle....add the BK May call vert later, I suppose.
we're gonna run into increasing seasonal demand? I tried to fill May USO $11/11.5 bull verts to complete the Big Kahuna, slow to fill @ 7c....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,145
  • Feb 24, 2016 1:49pm Feb 24, 2016 1:49pm
tried to fill Mar SVXY fly calls, $42/45/48, for 15c......no

tried NFLX Apr fly calls, $95/100/105, for 35c.....no
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,146
  • Feb 24, 2016 4:54pm Feb 24, 2016 4:54pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Faacccck. Wasn't going to get that "sidewalk penny" play filled, so manned up and did a March 4th 53.5/70.5 short strangle, which filled immediately in last half hour for a 1.22 credit.
Out at 50% at market open. THAT ... is the way earnings plays should go every time. (They don't).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,147
  • Feb 24, 2016 4:59pm Feb 24, 2016 4:59pm
Put on a CRM March 4th 55/70 short strangle for a 1.27, but looking sketchy for a "quick and dirty," "inzee outzee."

Post-announcement, up to 68-ish.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,148
  • Feb 24, 2016 5:02pm Feb 24, 2016 5:02pm
BIDU announces earnings tomorrow. Slap this puppy on in the waning hours of the NY sesh (tweaking strikes if necessary; the thing hops all over the place):

March 4th 136/141/185/190
Probability of Profit: 70%
Max Profit: $125/contract
Buying Power Effect: $375/contract
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,149
  • Feb 24, 2016 6:06pm Feb 24, 2016 6:06pm
Quoting The Fool
BORING BORING BORING /ES weekly chart, bigass leveljumper weekly 120+ pt bear candles, followed by sideways action, no continuation, market is engineered to prevent bear runs, so boring, ....selling put spreads the week after big dumps has been money.... {image}
Loads pistol, prepp'd to blow his grey matter out one side of his head if we get a repeat of March-Aug last year .... . Could this be the new "complacency range" -- between 1800 and 1950? Ugh.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,150
  • Feb 25, 2016 10:11am Feb 25, 2016 10:11am


Attached Image
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,151
  • Feb 25, 2016 12:45pm Feb 25, 2016 12:45pm
Interesting

http://www.cboe.com/micro/weeklys/spxweeklys.aspx
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,152
  • Feb 25, 2016 12:59pm Feb 25, 2016 12:59pm
NEVER short a dull market... never man... I am sitting tight all day.

And here it comes - the mofo breakout. Zombie Bulls did it... Yipeeee... and another round of forcing action and here you go. You can just glide next 30-50 points to the upside (SPX)... Cash only, gotta prepare for tomorrow.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,153
  • Feb 25, 2016 3:22pm Feb 25, 2016 3:22pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Put on a CRM March 4th 55/70 short strangle for a 1.27, but looking sketchy for a "quick and dirty," "inzee outzee." Post-announcement, up to 68-ish.
Out of the short put for a .05 debit. Price dancing around my 70 short call ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,154
  • Feb 25, 2016 3:46pm Feb 25, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting StrayDog
Interesting http://www.cboe.com/micro/weeklys/spxweeklys.aspx
"SPXW" does not come up, but the SPX with Wed expiry does, for instance: Feb5.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,155
  • Feb 25, 2016 3:49pm Feb 25, 2016 3:49pm
Quoting StrayDog
And here it comes - the mofo breakout. Zombie Bulls did it... Yipeeee....
I'll settle for anything with some conviction, I don't have enough IC's on for the flatline rangebound BS...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,156
  • Feb 25, 2016 3:50pm Feb 25, 2016 3:50pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
BIDU announces earnings tomorrow. Slap this puppy on in the waning hours of the NY sesh (tweaking strikes if necessary; the thing hops all over the place): March 4th 136/141/185/190 Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $125/contract Buying Power Effect: $375/contract
Had to fiddle around mightily with the setup and price for a fill: ended up with a 132/137/177.5/182.5 for a $1.31 credit. Where does price end up after hours? Dancing around my short call -- up $18 to $176.50 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,157
  • Feb 25, 2016 5:54pm Feb 25, 2016 5:54pm
Quoting StrayDog
{image}
Ditto that. This entire week's been a rangebound shitfest (but, oops, there she goes, poking her little head above resistance):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX -- LAST SIX.jpg Size: 132 KB


And with volatility looking like it's continuing to ebb (VIX at 19.11, -7.8%), gonna hand sit for a bit for most 45 DTE premium selling plays, let what I have on work out (or not), and wait for the next bit of vol to flow back in. I don't really see anything that pops out at me volatility wise on the Dough grid anyhow that's particularly worth playing, premium selling wise.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,158
  • Feb 26, 2016 5:58am Feb 26, 2016 5:58am
May have missed the APPLE gamma trade for today, 98$ call closed at 8c yesterdsay, will see if I can get in for that price or lower if not then 10c will be max I would be willing to pay for today's expiry and that is at the opening of the market only

pre market AAPL is trading at $97.26
  • #12,159
  • Feb 26, 2016 7:32am Feb 26, 2016 7:32am
Quoting Cecil Gee
May have missed the APPLE gamma trade for today, 98$ call closed at 8c yesterdsay, will see if I can get in for that price or lower if not then 10c will be max I would be willing to pay for today's expiry and that is at the opening of the market only pre market AAPL is trading at $97.26
just realised the VIX has a small bounce of it 200 day hence the reason why equities aren't moving this time
  • #12,160
  • Feb 26, 2016 7:40am Feb 26, 2016 7:40am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} just realised the VIX has a small bounce of it 200 day hence the reason why equities aren't moving this time
another attempt to break below its 200 day, if it can then AAPL may temporarily try for 99$
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