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Let's Trade Options

  • #12,121
  • Feb 22, 2016 8:01pm Feb 22, 2016 8:01pm
Quoting lylliaz
{quote} Thank you for your advice. But how to make money in currency?is it possible to play ETF option in the market direction for a long term,for example, two years's time?or you have any good opinion of investment.Please share.Tia.
My two cents on the currency proxies: they generally suck. The only one I've played with any regularity (a total of 5 times last year) was FXE, which mimics EURUSD movement, but you need to know things like support/resistance, price action, and things of that sort to make an intelligent decision as to where to enter a trade, when to exit, where to place your stop loss ... . I suggest looking at DailyFx for basic spot forex education.

Spot forex is really the place to go if you want to trade currency; they give you margin, which you can use... or not. But the only real way to make money on forex is to use the margin, given the nature of the instrument and how small the movement is (100 pips in EURUSD is a "big move" but it is really only a move from 1.1000 to 1.1100, i.e., a penny; to make money on a penny move, you will have to trade a large dollar value of the currency.)
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,122
  • Feb 22, 2016 8:23pm Feb 22, 2016 8:23pm
Took the money and ran on a bunch of stuff today, including a VXX short call vert and a couple of SVXY short put verticals. Weren't at 50% max, but close enough to not want to test my luck in spite of the fact that vol seems to be caving a bit here.

The remainder of my setups are largely March 18th SPY, QQQ, DIA iron condors that I've layered on/legged into over the past several weeks that just need time to decay a little bit more to be ripe for picking ... .

It's a touch early to start in on April index ETF setups and with the lowered volatility, it may be time to look at adding in some calendar action .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,123
  • Feb 22, 2016 8:49pm Feb 22, 2016 8:49pm
Sold some USO calls on this rally today with the increase in IV. Was able to get around a .40 credit on april 10 calls. Will be looking to get in short again on SPY and DOW but we may still have some more up to go got in tiny little shorts on Nasdaq other day just to get my feet wet again. VIX starting to look interesting again with volatility contracting so much.
  • #12,124
  • Feb 23, 2016 12:20am Feb 23, 2016 12:20am
shopping summer peak wti rebound, woohoo way above $40, these options are be dirt cheap
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,125
  • Feb 23, 2016 12:53am Feb 23, 2016 12:53am
May/June Big Kahuna. I bracket the OPEC meeting in Jun1, use no margin, blow less than 10c.....been blowing change long oil for what seems like an eternity
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,126
  • Feb 23, 2016 9:39am Feb 23, 2016 9:39am
I may start to buy GBP FROM HERE 1.4090 AND HAVE S/L at 1.4062 if I get stopped out I'll wait for near closing to see where the GBP closes, If it closes below 1.4055 then I'll void or on the other hand should it close above 1.4065 then I'LL BUY AGAIN , FXB has not enough liquidity to do options
  • #12,127
  • Feb 23, 2016 9:55am Feb 23, 2016 9:55am
AAPL is back on my watch list as its not far away from another volatile move, maybe 2-3 weeks away. Will watch closely
  • #12,128
  • Feb 23, 2016 9:59am Feb 23, 2016 9:59am
Quoting Cecil Gee
I may start to buy GBP FROM HERE 1.4090 AND HAVE S/L at 1.4062 if I get stopped out I'll wait for near closing to see where the GBP closes, If it closes below 1.4055 then I'll void or on the other hand should it close above 1.4065 then I'LL BUY AGAIN , FXB has not enough liquidity to do options
GBP 1.4120 so S/L is b.e. it could come back down and take me out then the above remains
  • #12,129
  • Feb 23, 2016 10:31am Feb 23, 2016 10:31am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} GBP 1.4120 so S/L is b.e. it could come back down and take me out then the above remains
yep S/O will see where GBP closes tonight
  • #12,130
  • Feb 23, 2016 10:43am Feb 23, 2016 10:43am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} yep S/O will see where GBP closes tonight
Gone back in with a long GBP from 1.4071 but with my stop at 1.4055 and T/P is open
  • #12,131
  • Feb 23, 2016 10:55am Feb 23, 2016 10:55am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Gone back in with a long GBP from 1.4071 but with my stop at 1.4055 and T/P is open
stopped
  • #12,132
  • Feb 23, 2016 11:39am Feb 23, 2016 11:39am
DeMark Sees Risk of S&P 500 Top Should Stocks Fade This Week

took some money on shorting the pullback today on indices...

If this double bottom survives, than I would like to short the mofo right where the bigger circle is.

SPX daily chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This pattern ("W" bottom) usually does not collapse from neckline (from this prices, i.e. /ES @ 1922)... BUT this rally started as releif on oil cutting production info.
Oil is falling. Rally is build on gaps and short covering. That means -> market can go down very very quickly if they get a push. Thinking of maybe trow some change on cheap debit put spreads with this and next week expiry, just in case...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,133
  • Feb 23, 2016 12:04pm Feb 23, 2016 12:04pm
Going small on FSLR earnings:

FSLR March 4th 51/54/70.5/73.5 iron condor
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: $71/contract (whoo hoo!) (sarcasm)
Buying Power Effect: $229/contract

Won't chase price, since it's picking up nickels off the sidewalk. Considered a March 4th 53.5/71.5 short strangle (goes for 1.44 credit), but don't want to tie up the buying power on something that could go quickly awry (solar's been wild).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,134
  • Feb 23, 2016 12:11pm Feb 23, 2016 12:11pm
A short-term, "I'm not ready for April index ETF setups yet," "don't wanna tie up buying power for a long time," engagement trade:

RUT March 4th 970/975/1045/1050 iron condor
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: $171/contract
Buying Power Effect: $329/contract

This is one that it's worth trying to get a fill above the mid price. Due to the price of the underlying, price will dance around the mid by +/- .05 easily ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,135
  • Feb 23, 2016 12:27pm Feb 23, 2016 12:27pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
A short-term, "I'm not ready for April index ETF setups yet," "don't wanna tie up buying power for a long time," engagement trade: RUT March 4th 970/975/1045/1050 iron condor Probability of Profit: 66% Max Profit: $171/contract Buying Power Effect: $329/contract This is one that it's worth trying to get a fill above the mid price. Due to the price of the underlying, price will dance around the mid by +/- .05 easily ... .
Filled at 1.65 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,136
  • Feb 23, 2016 12:36pm Feb 23, 2016 12:36pm
filled a May/June USO $12 call calendar for 7c, Big Kahuna idea, as above, will wait to see if we get another sub $30 slide & sell Apr bull puts, $8/7 or $7/6, to fund the boondoggle....add the BK May call vert later, I suppose.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,137
  • Feb 23, 2016 12:51pm Feb 23, 2016 12:51pm
I'm right in the middle of SPY IC's, really need that SnP rally to grind above 1,950, but I don't care if it takes another couple weeks to do it. Risk assets doing what oil says, shit is getting old.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,138
  • Feb 23, 2016 4:31pm Feb 23, 2016 4:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Going small on FSLR earnings: FSLR March 4th 51/54/70.5/73.5 iron condor Probability of Profit: 66% Max Profit: $71/contract (whoo hoo!) (sarcasm) Buying Power Effect: $229/contract Won't chase price, since it's picking up nickels off the sidewalk. Considered a March 4th 53.5/71.5 short strangle (goes for 1.44 credit), but don't want to tie up the buying power on something that could go quickly awry (solar's been wild).
Faacccck. Wasn't going to get that "sidewalk penny" play filled, so manned up and did a March 4th 53.5/70.5 short strangle, which filled immediately in last half hour for a 1.22 credit.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,139
  • Feb 23, 2016 4:32pm Feb 23, 2016 4:32pm
A question: "Why the f is GLD becoming a core position for me?" Answer: "Because my short call verts have been blown." Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,140
  • Feb 23, 2016 4:33pm Feb 23, 2016 4:33pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Faacccck. Wasn't going to get that "sidewalk penny" play filled, so manned up and did a March 4th 53.5/70.5 short strangle, which filled immediately in last half hour for a 1.22 credit.
Fingers crossed that that doesn't become a SCTY ... . Further earnings turdpiles in my portfolio are not required.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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