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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #241
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:50pm Feb 22, 2016 5:50pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} There are alot of traders stuck in shorts and as low as .68950. A lot of traders were targeting .67 and lower Im stuck in a short myself at .70330 but only a small position so its real effect to my account equity. running at 5% equity DD at the moment.

That's not bad at all. Some traders can trade like that without any problems. I assume tashkent is one as well. All kinds of styles of trading. If you found one you like and it works, stick with it. My comments are more biased towards newer traders to help keep them from blowing accounts!
  • #242
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:53pm Feb 22, 2016 5:53pm
Lower highs and lows on short time frames (30 min and less) so far today in sync with 4hr and 2hr pin bars
  • #243
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:26pm Feb 22, 2016 7:26pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Thanks PA and tashkent. Got it. PA looking a bit wobbly at the moment. Pinbar on 4h and 2H. I have another short from .7230

closed 3 shorts tiny profit
  • #244
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:35pm Feb 22, 2016 7:35pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} closed 3 shorts tiny profit

Congrats on the positive pips. I still think it will retest the .7200 area...just not sure if it will bounce or try to go any lower. That broken 4hr down trend line I posted earlier...a retest of that would be around .7180ish.
  • #245
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:39pm Feb 22, 2016 7:39pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Congrats on the positive pips. I still think it will retest the .7200 area...just not sure if it will bounce or try to go any lower. That broken 4hr down trend line I posted earlier...a retest of that would be around .7180ish.

Thanks PA I was only looking for a few pips on the short term PA. Bulls still look to be in charge for most part, and it has a habit of quick rebounds off every drop.
  • #246
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:39pm Feb 22, 2016 7:39pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} closed 3 shorts tiny profit

people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #247
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:49pm Feb 22, 2016 7:49pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} closed 3 shorts tiny profit
From what I have learnt is it dont matter how much or little profit you make it only matters on how much you loose.
10 pips profit is better than 100 pips loss
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #248
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:51pm Feb 22, 2016 7:51pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Thanks PA I was only looking for a few pips on the short term PA. Bulls still look to be in charge for most part, and it has a habit of quick rebounds off every drop.

I like to play a lot. Am developing patience to hold some trades longer, sometimes using wider SL and TP, and that's working pretty well for me, but I do get nervous when the red adds up on a wide SL. Did it on USD/CAD shorts yesterday, and in spite of oil rise all day the pair rose til last night, putting me in red on more minis than I usually have, then plunged to a triple bottom, where I took tidy profits. I've almost cleared my table today, only holding long On GBP/USD I took from 1.408 last night and just went long USD/JPY . Got real work to do, can't play all day, unfortunately
  • #249
  • Feb 22, 2016 8:00pm Feb 22, 2016 8:00pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} From what I have learnt is it dont matter how much or little profit you make it only matters on how much you loose. 10 pips profit is better than 100 pips loss
not quite right, PD.
this explains you use only fixed amount of lots for your all trades. this is not the way long term profitable traders trade.
As Above, So Below
  • #250
  • Feb 23, 2016 6:46am Feb 23, 2016 6:46am
glad I stayed out of the market and didn't take any shorts, still no major sellers on a/u.

There is another problem I see with shorts right now, while the e/u and g/u have been selling off like crazy(usually USD strength), the Aussie has been rallying. So I would anticipate that when euro and pound start going back up(USD weakness), then Aussie will still continue up. Just a guess at this point.
  • #251
  • Feb 23, 2016 7:24am Feb 23, 2016 7:24am
Quoting PA is King
glad I stayed out of the market and didn't take any shorts, still no major sellers on a/u. There is another problem I see with shorts right now, while the e/u and g/u have been selling off like crazy(usually USD strength), the Aussie has been rallying. So I would anticipate that when euro and pound start going back up(USD weakness), then Aussie will still continue up. Just a guess at this point.
anything is possible. the only constant is the change.
i am betting on dramatic fall on audusd, maybe not soon but will happen. it can go to 73 or 74, that really does not matter in long term
As Above, So Below
  • #252
  • Feb 23, 2016 7:26am Feb 23, 2016 7:26am
I just wanted to throw this chart up here so you guys get an idea of a the top of pattern I look for in order to short. Let me state my view again, for me...I am NOT taking a short right now as I don't think it's wise to fight the pretty strong uptrend right now. That is just me and my personal trading style. I don't feel 50/50% at best of it being a winning trade and that doesn't put the odds in favor enough for me to enter.

However, there are some whom might think we are at a good place to short and I don't fault you for that...we may or may not get a move down based on what I'm seeing here...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH1 012.png Size: 141 KB
  • #253
  • Feb 23, 2016 7:29am Feb 23, 2016 7:29am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} anything is possible. the only constant is the change. i am betting on dramatic fall on audusd, maybe not soon but will happen. it can go to 73 or 74, that really does not matter in long term

There's the problem between you and me...you are a position trader(long term) and I'm a day trader(short term)...you can't really compare our trading views since they are based on different timeframes. You are right though, the only thing constant is change. And as I've stated before, nothing will trend one way forever. So many pips to both of us!
  • #254
  • Feb 23, 2016 7:41am Feb 23, 2016 7:41am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} There's the problem between you and me...you are a position trader(long term) and I'm a day trader(short term)...you can't really compare our trading views since they are based on different timeframes. You are right though, the only thing constant is change. And as I've stated before, nothing will trend one way forever. So many pips to both of us!
i keep forgetting your levels are usually around 30 pips. my post was just a personal opinion. still think 73 has a higher chance.
As Above, So Below
  • #255
  • Edited 8:00am Feb 23, 2016 7:45am | Edited 8:00am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i keep forgetting your levels are usually around 30 pips. my post was just a personal opinion. still think 73 has a higher chance.
I would agree with the .7300 area. Every time I've seen aussie dip today it's bid right back up and usually slightly higher. Current 1hr candle just dipped to .7230 and already back up to .7245 with a long wick/tail on it. 15 more minutes until candle close though. But you can see clearly on the 1hr chart how price has just been trending higher all night long.

Quick update...after 15minutes, the 1hr candle went back down near .7230 and closed bearish instead of having a wick/tail. Just an example of why I personally like to wait for candle closes most of the time before entering trades.
  • #256
  • Feb 23, 2016 7:54am Feb 23, 2016 7:54am
if a retrace is going to happen then a belive it's going to be soon. think its better to wait and reevaluate after some clear pa.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM5.png Size: 38 KB
  • #257
  • Feb 23, 2016 10:32am Feb 23, 2016 10:32am
Well, here's the .7200 area I was hoping to see last night. See how price reacts around here. And if anyone took a short around .7230-40 when I posted that M pattern chart...Congrats on your pips!
  • #258
  • Feb 23, 2016 12:18pm Feb 23, 2016 12:18pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.PNG Size: 39 KB
maybe good time for long I think PAs right longs safer at the moment ,also off a nice fib (not sure if PA uses them or not) and also the .7200 support level ,how ever we shall see.
  • #259
  • Feb 23, 2016 2:40pm Feb 23, 2016 2:40pm
Quoting buster48
{image}maybe good time for long I think PAs right longs safer at the moment ,also off a nice fib (not sure if PA uses them or not) and also the .7200 support level ,how ever we shall see.
I don't use fibs, but thank you for posting. I'm sure others do use them and like looking at what you have. I long near .7200 with a small 20pip or so stoploss is a decent risk/reward imho if price goes back up to retest the highs(or at least .7230). And there's a chance it goes higher. If it goes down, then it's a small loss.
  • #260
  • Feb 23, 2016 5:28pm Feb 23, 2016 5:28pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Hi Blackopal, I'm not sure how you have you FF layout, but on mine when you scroll to the bottom right of the FF homepage it lists the Positions/Live account stats. It shows e/u, g/u, and u/j. You have to click on "more" and then scroll down to AUD/Usd...then click on it and you'll see all the stats.
Thanks from me as well on this, is an interesting thing to look at every now and then. At present it's startling to note that average long entry is 7280 and average short is 7143.

Personally I have 3 short positions with average entry of 7215. I have used the pullback from 7259 to close a 4th short for small profit so I can replace it near or above the high if we revisit that zone or can make bigger profits if it's a larger pullback or reversal.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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