- | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 28 Posts
Looking at EUR/USD. Let's get back to basics. Nothing says basics like a clear, long-term line chart. It's so easy to get caught up in the candles, short-term news and action, talking head analysts etc. Let them talk....
I trust what I see on my charts. This is a visual game ultimately and your eyes can play tricks on you. You will see things with the line chart you would never see otherwise:
So what does this weekly EUR/USD chart tell me? The trend that started in 2000 is still intact. So we look for long trades!
Wind at our backs, remember? Let the other look smart while we bank coin.
traderjoe
I trust what I see on my charts. This is a visual game ultimately and your eyes can play tricks on you. You will see things with the line chart you would never see otherwise:
So what does this weekly EUR/USD chart tell me? The trend that started in 2000 is still intact. So we look for long trades!
Wind at our backs, remember? Let the other look smart while we bank coin.
traderjoe
- | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 28 Posts
tj, to have such a long-term view from 2002 and only to be only long since then is not smart in my opinion. look at price going down in 2014 from 1.4000 to 1.0500 in 2015 - you`re still long with a massive drawdown? would rather be a swing trader.
Hi yonnie,
We are just getting started.
Never said we would have only traded long from 2002. Have a look at what I wrote again.
We don't look at the long-term view to find out what we would have done but what we will do right now!
The line charts give the long-term view and the main direction of trend. It doesn't mean we would only trade long always. But you want to trade with the wind at your back and right now the long-term trend is intact.
We will be taking short-term trades and taking short-term profit. But trading in the direction of the main trend just makes sense.
tradejoe
- Joined May 2008 | Status: Member | 1,156 Posts
sorry tj, I jumped the gun - will try hard not to do that again
- | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 28 Posts
As I said, we are at a major turning point in the EUR/USD. The only other range larger than the only on the right is the left of the trade. Our bias is long!
- | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 28 Posts
It only takes a few good trades to grow an account. Some more truths on trading I have gathered over the years...
Don't over-leverage. Grow you account slowly & compound. Think about it, if you blow accounts by over-trading and over-leveraging those fund can't be used to compound, they are lost forever. This is a marathon not a sprint. Slow down.
Don't keep those stops too tight.... Let the trade breathe! Again this is part of the less stress approach I advocate. I see traders trying to squeeze profit out of every trade by keeping stops to tight. They think too short-term and again do not see the big picture. No need to have 20 pip stops that are likely to get triggered when you have so many trades to come.
traderjoe
Don't over-leverage. Grow you account slowly & compound. Think about it, if you blow accounts by over-trading and over-leveraging those fund can't be used to compound, they are lost forever. This is a marathon not a sprint. Slow down.
Don't keep those stops too tight.... Let the trade breathe! Again this is part of the less stress approach I advocate. I see traders trying to squeeze profit out of every trade by keeping stops to tight. They think too short-term and again do not see the big picture. No need to have 20 pip stops that are likely to get triggered when you have so many trades to come.
traderjoe
- | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 28 Posts
Trader Joe, Most traders have been there, done that. Friggin indicators!!! It is NOT the way to go. It almost always look good until you do it for real money. Then it all goes south. One thing that i thing is WAY overrated is money management. I am not saying you should be all in all the time. Of course not! But the main thing is to be on the right side of the market most of the time. Anyway, keep coming. I am waiting for the juicy bits... Insider
Insider,
You sir get it. Indicators can waist your time heading a in direction that leads you nowhere, been there buddy.
Being on the right side of the market most of the time is what this thread is all about. That's why a drop down, uncluttered long-term view is so important to the health of our accounts. As I said, but the wind at your backs, why find the trend?
traderjoe
As I said, we are at a major turning point in the EUR/USD. The only other range larger than the only on the right is the left of the trade. Our bias is long! {image}
My bias is short. Just maybe not right now, but I'd much rather be short. I would prefer to wait for that 200EMA to be destroyed before I go long (longterm) EU. I'm also keeping my eye on that 1.18 to 1.24 resistance level. If price doesn't cleanly break it, there is no way I'd be taking long positions. I would much rather wait this one out.
I'm not here to spoil anybody's party, nor am I here to doubt you. I'm just extremely cautious when it comes down to trend lines. Sorta like divergence, so easy to see things how you'd like to see them.
Feel free to slap my hand or teach me a lesson because I am the first in here who is eager and willing to learn!
Green pips Joe, green pips to you all
When trading: "Empty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water."
- | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 28 Posts
Let's dig down a bit more, but just a bit.
Sometimes your eyes deceive you and keep from seeing the simple things... Let's get focused.
Price has pushed itself up through the 200 Day Moving average which the big boys use to determine the main trend. If price stays above it, price is bullish, if it stays below it, it is bearish. Simple right?
Price is starting to respect the 200 MA. Does this mean that price can't move lower for a while? No, But tells us that the bears are weakening and the bulls are starting to move in.
Sometimes your eyes deceive you and keep from seeing the simple things... Let's get focused.
Price has pushed itself up through the 200 Day Moving average which the big boys use to determine the main trend. If price stays above it, price is bullish, if it stays below it, it is bearish. Simple right?
Price is starting to respect the 200 MA. Does this mean that price can't move lower for a while? No, But tells us that the bears are weakening and the bulls are starting to move in.
- | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 28 Posts
{quote} Hi Joe, My bias is short. Just maybe not right now, but I'd much rather be short. I would prefer to wait for that 200EMA to be destroyed before I go long (longterm) EU. I'm also keeping my eye on that 1.18 to 1.24 resistance level. If price doesn't cleanly break it, there is no way I'd be taking long positions. I would much rather wait this one out. {image} I'm not here to spoil anybody's party, nor am I here to doubt you. I'm just extremely cautious when it comes down to trend lines. Sorta like divergence, so easy to see things how you'd...
Ah yes, the weeklies. The problem is by the time your levels are broken and the weekly MA is broken, the bulk of the move is already over and you end up missing it. Also price is likely to slow down because once it gets to 1.1800+ you are facing a massive amount of resistance level. That's why I stick to 200 MA. It goes you most of the info you need regarding the main trend. That's why most of the big boys use it all the time.
Always get in a bit early but not too early.
traderjoe