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  • #12,101
  • Feb 20, 2016 10:06pm Feb 20, 2016 10:06pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} not saying it will go to 10 but it definitely isn't that far away, there looks as if there is a relief rally but I doubt we see the highs. Lets just wait and see which one comes first, pre 2007 the VIX used to have about 2-3 volatile up moves once it was below 10 in a year wonder if we ever see that again
I've been putting on the same VIX play every month, which is to fill something like a 10.5/13.5 short put credit spread for a 1.50 credit (the break even is at 12). I had the thing fill a couple of times last summer, but not since August ... . I'll go bonkers if we lull back into the mid-March to late August doldrums we had last year. That was a huge slog fest through low value premium selling in index ETF's ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,102
  • Feb 20, 2016 11:46pm Feb 20, 2016 11:46pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I've been putting on the same VIX play every month, which is to fill something like a 10.5/13.5 short put credit spread for a 1.50 credit ... .
SAY WHAAAT? I can't see any decent credit spread opps short VIX puts - unless you are fishing down at the bottom of a dip, which is what I think you are suggesting. I would rather sell calls into bull (long vol) strength....even after the last couple months of elevated vol, I would still rather bet on a vol collapse than the other way around.

That said, I think we are in for more long vol opps - here's a bwb in UVXY I might set up to catch a vol spike in the week following the Mar FOMC week......I sure don't wanna pay 78c though....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-20_2127VIX.png Size: 109 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-20_2144uvxy2.png Size: 85 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,103
  • Feb 21, 2016 12:44am Feb 21, 2016 12:44am
Hi Friends,

I am here looking for advice. I got orders from my financial adviser:

"Sell ProShares UltraShort Australian Dollar ETF";
"Sell CurrencyShares Australian Dollar ETF PUT option "

But I do not know how to place the order. Do I have to find a broker and open an account? what kind of broker I have to deal with,a full service or a discounted online broker company? Can I do both trades :ETF and ETF option using the same account?

Please help me.Tia!

Regards
  • #12,104
  • Feb 21, 2016 1:26am Feb 21, 2016 1:26am
Quoting lylliaz
Hi Friends, I am here looking for advice. I got orders from my financial adviser: "Sell ProShares UltraShort Australian Dollar ETF"; "Sell CurrencyShares Australian Dollar ETF PUT option "
that's CROC and FXA, respectively.

So...if you are short CROC, you are short an instrument that is short the AUD - the result is you are long the AUD.

And if you are short the FXA puts, you are also in a bullish position on the AUD. Is that what you want?

Without knowing anything about what your investment goals are, it is hard for me to advise you. But, if you are bullish on the AUD, the simpler trade would just be to buy the FXA shares. That way, you don't need to have a margin account to a) short CROC and b) short FXA puts. Personally, I would not touch CROC, since both the shares and the options are extremely thinly traded....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-20_2314croc.png Size: 144 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-20_2317fxa.png Size: 153 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,105
  • Edited 2:01pm Feb 21, 2016 2:04am | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} SAY WHAAAT? I can't see any decent credit spread opps short VIX puts -
well, I usually only look at UVXY to sell put spreads, because it is notorious for rad mispricing opps....looking in there now I see somebody was in Friday for 2k of the Jun $25/20 bull puts - a pretty big trade that they put on for $2.15 credit ($430,000 less costs maxP).....that spread can be taken off for partial of maxP in any vol spike, and, if vol keeps sliding, at least $25 is nice and low....

...I am content to wait on this kind of trade, though. (to be honest, I am not sure that is not a bear vert - in which case, $2.15 debit for a $5 otm jun vert is kinda crazy....)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-20_2354uvxy5.png Size: 55 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,106
  • Feb 21, 2016 2:19am Feb 21, 2016 2:19am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, I usually only look at UVXY to sell put spreads, because it is notorious for rad mispricing opps....
another thing, the iv crush is so extreme in UVXY - if you sell a $5 fotm put spread and the u/l moves against your short leg strike, the iv will be crashing at the same time, and the relative values of the options in the spread will be shrinking at the same time...it's not enough to save your ass if price moves under the short put, but it helps...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,107
  • Feb 21, 2016 2:40am Feb 21, 2016 2:40am
Quoting The Fool
well, I usually only look at UVXY to sell put spreads, because it is notorious for rad mispricing opps....
not just in puts, though, anywhere, so you see these kinds of vert opps that would be great r:r, IF they would fill....which they seldom do
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-21_0036uvxy7.png Size: 79 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,108
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:17am Feb 21, 2016 3:17am
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/28/health...eref=rss_world

no vaccine.....no cure......skeeters will fly right over Trump's Walll
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,109
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:30am Feb 21, 2016 3:30am
Hi Fool,

Nice to have your reply!

The ways my advisor advise me included in their service. I just start learning to trade.The spot forex is too risky to me. So they provide ETF and ETF options to reduce the risk? They all new to me. I myself have no idea how to invest and make money.Besides I do not have much money to play around. I certainly do not want to invest in thin market. They advise me "Sell ProShares UltraShort Australian Dollar ETF"; "Sell CurrencyShares Australian Dollar ETF PUT option " and also "sell spot AUD/USD".This actually confused me. The first two orders seem to play AUD upside and the last one to play AUD downside.

I do not want to trade CFDs because margin trading is not for me. Maybe you are right I just simply buy FXA. So if I have a online discounted broker ,that will do? How about options? Can I trade from the same account?Tia, your reply is very much appreciated.
  • #12,110
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:57am Feb 21, 2016 3:57am
Quoting lylliaz
Maybe you are right I just simply buy FXA. So if I have a online discounted broker ,that will do? How about options? Can I trade from the same account?Tia, your reply is very much appreciated.
you're right, the first two positions are long AUD and the last (spot trade) is obviously short AUD. If you don't have any experience trading, it will be very risky for you to try your hand at options. The simplest trade we have discussed is, as you see, the long FXA - just buy FXA shares. You can do that in any discount online broker like E-Trade, etc, for about $10 per trade. or less....

....to be long AUD via FXA means you think AUD will appreciate against the USD. I'd have to say that is a very dicey proposition in the near term, one predicated on an outlook for a resurgent world economy (especially including China's) that will need to buy the raw materials that Australia extracts and sells.

Trading is a risky business - if you don't have any experience and if you don't want to make a serious investment of your time to learn all about the various ways to speculate in the markets, you should put your money in something safe - like government or low-risk corporate bonds. You won't get much of a return on your investment, but at least you won't lose all your money. Anyway,....Good Luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,111
  • Feb 21, 2016 4:31am Feb 21, 2016 4:31am
Hi Fool,

Thanks! I certainly do not know how to make money in financial market. It seems there is always risk involved whichever the instrument vehicle to take.

By the way,can I sell FXA? I googled how to trade FXA. It says just like buy and sell shares. I know buy share at low and sell it at high,then you make money. But how to sell FXA that you did not buy? it confuses me.
  • #12,112
  • Feb 21, 2016 5:07am Feb 21, 2016 5:07am
Quoting lylliaz
Hi Friends, I am here looking for advice. I got orders from my financial adviser: "Sell ProShares UltraShort Australian Dollar ETF"; "Sell CurrencyShares Australian Dollar ETF PUT option " But I do not know how to place the order. Do I have to find a broker and open an account? what kind of broker I have to deal with,a full service or a discounted online broker company? Can I do both trades :ETF and ETF option using the same account? Please help me.Tia! Regards
be careful with FXA there is little liquidity in that ETF meaning opening and closing a trade at a desired price will be difficult, big spread between bid/ask prices
  • #12,113
  • Feb 21, 2016 6:58am Feb 21, 2016 6:58am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} be careful with FXA there is little liquidity in that ETF meaning opening and closing a trade at a desired price will be difficult, big spread between bid/ask prices
Thank you for your advice. But how to make money in currency?is it possible to play ETF option in the market direction for a long term,for example, two years's time?or you have any good opinion of investment.Please share.Tia.
  • #12,114
  • Feb 21, 2016 11:45am Feb 21, 2016 11:45am
Quoting lylliaz
{quote} Thank you for your advice. But how to make money in currency?is it possible to play ETF option in the market direction for a long term,for example, two years's time?or you have any good opinion of investment.Please share.Tia.
I suppose if your looking two years ahead it may be ok, you'll need a fair amount of movement in your direction just to cover your spread in the first place then its gotta stay in the direction you like it to be to start making money
  • #12,115
  • Feb 21, 2016 1:56pm Feb 21, 2016 1:56pm
Quoting lylliaz
Thank you for your advice. But how to make money in currency?is it possible to play ETF option in the market direction for a long term,for example, two years's time?or you have any good opinion of investment.Please share.Tia.
I recommend you use the internet to educate yourself. You are such a beginner, we could be answering questions for months - not what this thread is supposed to be. Try investopedia.com - you can search any topic there and get short articles that explain various aspects of trading. Good Luck.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,116
  • Feb 21, 2016 10:19pm Feb 21, 2016 10:19pm
rally time? short vol = long SVXY, looking to fill a wide call vert to March, the one below would be good if filled for anything less than 50c
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-21_2016svxy1.png Size: 91 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,117
  • Feb 22, 2016 11:11am Feb 22, 2016 11:11am
Really slow today...

I am thinking about neutral-bearish position on PCLN, like selling a March 1300/1320 call spread.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,118
  • Feb 22, 2016 11:47am Feb 22, 2016 11:47am
Quoting StrayDog
Really slow today...
I can't complain - I am taking off lots of SPY Mar bull put spreads @ around 70% maxP.......mofos held SPY $192 last week like a junkyard dog, we'll see if it can fly now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,119
  • Feb 22, 2016 11:57am Feb 22, 2016 11:57am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I can't complain - I am taking off lots of SPY Mar bull put spreads @ around 70% maxP.......mofos held SPY $192 last week like a junkyard dog, we'll see if it can fly now....
That's the way to go... options WILL expire... long live the theta decay!

I am sitting pretty much all in cash. Putting various /ES credit and debit spreads to platform for easy access.

Man that XIV was $16 with /ES close to 1800, and now the mofo is $19.44.
/ES moved +7.8% (1800 -> 1940) and XIV moved +21.5% (16 -> 19.44).
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,120
  • Feb 22, 2016 12:34pm Feb 22, 2016 12:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I can't complain - I am taking off lots of SPY Mar bull put spreads @ around 70% maxP.......mofos held SPY $192 last week like a junkyard dog, we'll see if it can fly now....
well done.. well done

for me this is it.. either this holds or I take my positions off, either way nothing to do than to see how it pans out
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