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  • #12,081
  • Feb 19, 2016 1:30am Feb 19, 2016 1:30am
....in the same vein, the Mar SVXY $25 puts, wild stuff, range 20c to >$2.00 on the pops....SVXY low @ $30....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,082
  • Feb 19, 2016 2:19am Feb 19, 2016 2:19am
I need a strong Feb finish - SPY to $195 will make my month.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,083
  • Feb 19, 2016 3:22am Feb 19, 2016 3:22am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} WOW, VIX 10 would mean /ES back to 2100 - 2150 or more, boy that would be phun....I guess I could see it if oil comes along and the Fed telegraphs some dove sounds
not saying it will go to 10 but it definitely isn't that far away, there looks as if there is a relief rally but I doubt we see the highs. Lets just wait and see which one comes first, pre 2007 the VIX used to have about 2-3 volatile up moves once it was below 10 in a year wonder if we ever see that again
  • #12,084
  • Feb 19, 2016 4:00am Feb 19, 2016 4:00am
idk but I think there won't be a chance for a persistent US equity rally until after the Nov elections. We might see an approach to the Summer 2015 highs this Spring, if oil and the Fed cooperate. You could be right about a deep VIX dip - I hope we see it, because it won't grind sideways at lows for long....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,085
  • Feb 19, 2016 10:15am Feb 19, 2016 10:15am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah.. Rally started 4 days ago, when info about an "deal - cutting production of oil" was announced. /ES run from 1805 to 1920. The rally seems impresive, but is it sustainable? It was made on low volume, holiday... lots of short covering. Who knows? I placed various call spreads on my platform that I like to sell... Like /ES March 1970/2000. If we hit 1950, for example -> what would be the next move? Above 2000 OR bellow 1900? FOMC Meeting Minutes in 2.5 hours.
On Feb 17th I sold that call spread. Covered today... then reversed and go long with weekly call spreads (entry on /ES @ 1900), to catch a little bounce.

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and more on second acc
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I should left some... (like close 3 and the other 3 debit spreads are for free...) but price was stalling @ 1908/1909... and fook it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,086
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:14pm Feb 19, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting The Fool
I need a strong Feb finish - SPY to $195 will make my month.....
I am taking the other side of this trade via puts.... my perfect entry would have been 1950 ish on S&P (which corresponds to your target), but I see the equities coughing up at these levels already, therefore targeting something down in the 1870-80 range..
  • #12,087
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:33pm Feb 19, 2016 12:33pm
Quoting pmmebids
{quote} I am taking the other side of this trade via puts.... my perfect entry would have been 1950 ish on S&P (which corresponds to your target), but I see the equities coughing up at these levels already, therefore targeting something down in the 1870-80 range..
oh yeah, for when? I needed SPY $195 because I have some SPY call butterflys centered (on average) at $195, and also some spare long SPY $194 and $195 calls - all expiring today..........not lookin too good....

Beyond today, I just have a raft of SPY IC's for March, among other things mentioned above.

Been a shitty February - I pinned a lot of risk on a projected vol collapse which never arrived. So now I am eating that shit sandwich - just a lot of small losses that have added up to an ugly hole. That's what I get for being unbalanced. Life goes on.....

Spoos are looking shaky but the q's are green - I would not be surprised to see big moves either way to close the opex month.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,088
  • Feb 19, 2016 1:01pm Feb 19, 2016 1:01pm
UNG $6.6x......el Ninyo promising more Winter warmth......we could see UNG $5 this Spring before the Summer loads kick in.......if I see $5 UNG I will prolly have to buy a 1,000 shares to sit in the IRA.....if I live long enough they will make money....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,089
  • Feb 19, 2016 2:41pm Feb 19, 2016 2:41pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} the VIX trade is getting closer, could be another 4-6 weeks before it aligns then the real volatility kicks in until then equities may just drift higher Apple could see 107 before its pull back
perfect day, this kind of stagnant day makes the set up come around quicker not so sure on AAPL reaching that 107
  • #12,090
  • Feb 19, 2016 2:53pm Feb 19, 2016 2:53pm
SPY been in a $10 range since the 1st week of the year, might range another month or more, who knows....break up or break down - with all that's going on I'd have to bet on a break down if it breaks......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,091
  • Feb 19, 2016 7:03pm Feb 19, 2016 7:03pm
Quoting The Fool
UNG $6.6x......el Ninyo promising more Winter warmth......we could see UNG $5 this Spring before the Summer loads kick in.......if I see $5 UNG I will prolly have to buy a 1,000 shares to sit in the IRA.....if I live long enough they will make money....
Ugh. F'in UNG. Covered call looking like a long term play. Fortunately, I'm in it small, but I hate staring at the damn thing. Pulled off the March short 8 call today for .05. Will wait for a bounce to sell a short call again ... . Lol. The "bouncing" may be over for the season, so I may just suck it up, sell a call near current price and try to salvage something out it ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,092
  • Feb 19, 2016 7:21pm Feb 19, 2016 7:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} If you want to leg in to your leg ins, you can try to get into your long legs early and sell the short legs later. This limits your size but maybe that's a blessing in disguise. I have been looking at getting into UVXY call flys this way - wait for UVXY to bottom (easy to call bottom with crystal ball, sold separately) and buy the front & back calls while they are cheap. Then, as UVXY spikes, you can a) just sell the calls - even vfotm calls will get fatter in a spike if you have enough time on them, or b) if you think the vol might stick...
I like the idea (legging into the longs first), but probably don't have the patience for it. I've putzed around with quite a few different approaches.

With legging in to one side and then the other, I've moved away from the chart to tell me where strength/weakness for my setup is. If I've already legged into the short put side at the 84 or 85% prob OTM strike, I basically wait until that's the 90-95% prob OTM strike and then sell the call side at the edge of the expected move (about the 75% prob OTM strike) and vice versa. That way I don't have to make a decision about where support/resistance is in this weird ass area we're in right now or where the hell we're going directionally. Even doing that tests my patience because you've got to wait ... .

Of course, that method doesn't always work out so hot if you've already put on one side and the market decides to spike in the direction of your spread such that the urge to put on the other side to delta balance or protect what you've already got on overtakes your level of patience.

I guess that's why I'm more comfortable slapping the whole setup on, let price slop around a bit, layer on more in the same expiration, and then mix and match the call/put spreads you take off. That way, I don't feel so exposed to abrupt movement toward one side or the other.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,093
  • Feb 19, 2016 7:28pm Feb 19, 2016 7:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} oh yeah, for when? I needed SPY $195 because I have some SPY call butterflys centered (on average) at $195, and also some spare long SPY $194 and $195 calls - all expiring today..........not lookin too good.... Beyond today, I just have a raft of SPY IC's for March, among other things mentioned above. Been a shitty February - I pinned a lot of risk on a projected vol collapse which never arrived. So now I am eating that shit sandwich - just a lot of small losses that have added up to an ugly hole. That's what I get for being unbalanced....
I also have a couple VXX vol collapse short put verts on that will not work out ... . I bought 'em cheap, went fairly small, but was hoping for a bit of a payday here ... . No such luck. Consolation prizes are my VXX March 18th 31/27 short call vert put on for 1.16 and two SVXY 31/35 short put verts, one expiring March 11 put on for 1.44/contract; the other expiring March 18th for 1.29. If those work out, it'll be an f'in wash.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,094
  • Feb 19, 2016 7:42pm Feb 19, 2016 7:42pm
With vol pissing out of the broader market these past few days, I may have to look at earnings plays next week while my March index ETF setups work themselves out or try some short term stuff to keep myself entertained and my buying power engaged. I'm basically done putting on March stuff, but it's a little early for April yet ... .

I've been getting somewhat of a hoot out of these <14 DTE RUT IC's that I treat as scalps, taking whatever profit they spit up and running (usually 25% of max). I put on a Feb 29 RUT 895/905/1050/1060 (an 80% POP setup at the start) earlier this week for .96 while hand sitting, and it's a penny away from 50% max. I'll take it off on Monday for whatever it's at and call it "good enough." For the buying power it engaged, it probably wasn't worth it, but the cash just sitting there was giving me the "come hither" look ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,095
  • Feb 19, 2016 8:18pm Feb 19, 2016 8:18pm
Hey ZS....well I'll be glad to put Feb behind me...directional plays whooped me pretty bad, only pretty good sets of Mar SPY IC's offering any possibility of relief.....in time. Not sure where we go now, probably more chop.....I will be watching and thinking about rolling Mar index credit spreads out to Apr in the next week or so....somebody says monthly opex is a good time to put on flys....hm

http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...48972149d39b46
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,096
  • Edited 2:12am Feb 20, 2016 1:52am | Edited 2:12am
Quoting The Fool
Hey ZS....well I'll be glad to put Feb behind me
not giving up on the vol trades, though - my next expedition will to the Mar FOMC - just 3.5 trading weeks out.....looking at Mar4/Apr1 spreads to try to catch the aftermath of the FOMC, which is in Mar3 week. I will look at SVXY Big Kahunas to catch vol collapse.....(maybe hard to fill in those thin weeklies, I might have to front the Mar monthly)

...to catch a vol spike I will look at Mar4 or later UVXY, VIX, and VXX call flys......also long UVXY calls in the fotm strikes, maybe further out ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,097
  • Feb 20, 2016 2:32am Feb 20, 2016 2:32am
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/28/...-organization/

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2016/0...-supplies.html

....still "winter" in the USA....skeeters not really buzzing yet....wait a few months and the first homegrown Zika cases start showing up in FL, TX, MS, upriver to the heartland......I still remember the markets freaking out about ebola, and there were just a few infected travelers......sell in May go away could be a mofo.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,098
  • Feb 20, 2016 3:53am Feb 20, 2016 3:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} oh yeah, for when? I needed SPY $195 because I have some SPY call butterflys centered (on average) at $195, and also some spare long SPY $194 and $195 calls - all expiring today..........not lookin too good.... Beyond today, I just have a raft of SPY IC's for March, among other things mentioned above. Been a shitty February - I pinned a lot of risk on a projected vol collapse which never arrived. So now I am eating that shit sandwich - just a lot of small losses that have added up to an ugly hole. That's what I get for being unbalanced....
i got them for mar/apr expiries. I was betting on the rally up towards 195, but after yesterday's data and the fact that in my opinion we are due for a healthy retrace towards 187-188?, I am putting some shorts on gold and spy until March. I probably should have put on a spread to be honest..
  • #12,099
  • Feb 20, 2016 9:28pm Feb 20, 2016 9:28pm
Quoting The Fool
Hey ZS....well I'll be glad to put Feb behind me...directional plays whooped me pretty bad, only pretty good sets of Mar SPY IC's offering any possibility of relief.....in time. Not sure where we go now, probably more chop.....I will be watching and thinking about rolling Mar index credit spreads out to Apr in the next week or so....somebody says monthly opex is a good time to put on flys....hm http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...48972149d39b46...
My account is not without its "rough spots," one of which was GLD short ... . Ripped clean through my 111/114 and 115/118 March 18th short call verticals; already working those off with the addition of a 2 x 104/107 short put spread on the "dip" we had back to 1200. My feeling is that I'll be working those short call spreads off for a few months ... . Duration, duration, duration, I guess, is the only answer there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,100
  • Feb 20, 2016 9:40pm Feb 20, 2016 9:40pm
Quoting pmmebids
{quote} i got them for mar/apr expiries. I was betting on the rally up towards 195, but after yesterday's data and the fact that in my opinion we are due for a healthy retrace towards 187-188?, I am putting some shorts on gold and spy until March. I probably should have put on a spread to be honest..
This is not the worst place to put on SPY short call verticals; an April 1st 200/203 currently goes for a .58 credit, which is at the edge of the expected move for that expiration. It isn't fantastic, either, since we've had a bit of a volatility contraction ... . I know that the general rule of thumb is to look for a credit that is 1/3rd the width of the strikes (i.e., if the spread is three strikes wide, look for a buck), but you'd have to move down to the 197/200 to get .95 or so in that expiration and that seems awfully tight to current price for me ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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