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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #121
  • Feb 17, 2016 10:43pm Feb 17, 2016 10:43pm
Looking at FX Jays charts sparked some ideas. Thoughts?

Searching for that high probability recurrent zone as an anchor target. A magnet
Riding MA sentiment towards magnet and collecting the lesser probability problem zones along the way?

1day zone anchor target also collecting any 1 day zones that appear along the way.
4hr problem nuggets

Stop loss above Daily MA smoothed 15

All trades target the magnet

h=10 for problem zones to clear
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFDaily.png Size: 119 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFDaily2.png Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFDaily3.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFH4.png Size: 87 KB
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #122
  • Feb 18, 2016 9:47pm Feb 18, 2016 9:47pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFDaily4.png Size: 86 KB
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #123
  • Feb 19, 2016 4:31am Feb 19, 2016 4:31am
Quoting BillYon
{image}
Hi BillYon, is your "SnapBack" following TZ concept?
  • #124
  • Feb 19, 2016 4:57am Feb 19, 2016 4:57am
Quoting PPigh77
{quote} Hi BillYon, is your "SnapBack" following TZ concept?
Yes it was a test of an idea. Grid testing mixed with clearing TZs that form at RSI extremes.
I mentioned the idea last year on the Transient zone Basics thread.

Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #125
  • Feb 19, 2016 5:08am Feb 19, 2016 5:08am
Quoting PPigh77
{quote} Hi BillYon, is your "SnapBack" following TZ concept?
From this post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post8337981
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #126
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:09pm Feb 21, 2016 3:09pm
Quoting zz_zhang
{quote} Superb Top class trades , thanks for sharing jay. Nv fail to impress
Thanks mate, always my pleasure. Whenever I have time and believe that i have something useful to share i'll make sure to post it here.

Quoting Innate
{quote} Hi Jay, Your results are always so impressive. You are a real inspiration. Any chance you are prepared to give us some clues as to how you are using the "trio combination" please? Thank you.
Hey Innate, thanks for the nice words.
I have talked about TZ & probabilities over and over here on FF.
I didn't invent anything new from the concepts since they were last discussed.
As for the trend factor, each person has his own technique in finding a trend. Personally I use custom MAs & Currency Strength indicators.
So basically the TZ concept will help you find trades with high probabilities, and you just take the ones that happen to be with the trend.
I was successful trading against the trend using TZ when i was trading more actively. Now that trading isn't my #1 priority, I find trend trading to be in combination with TZ to be very satisfying and way more rewarding.
  • #127
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:15pm Feb 21, 2016 3:15pm
Quoting ellenbrook
JAY his a master trader but will never give any clue unfortunately that his secret,
Quoting ellenbrook
haha hard to full the shoes of JAY but remember if JAY did give his secret some will take advantage of it then will make a system similar then they will make big money to sell it on the net you cannot trust anyone many are shark $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ that all.
Hey Ellen,
Again i repeat, there is no secret. I worked with the same exact material/concepts/formulas/ideas that everyone else had and still have.
I may have more experience, maybe more skills, and maybe more interest in the subject which lead me to spend endless hours researching, trying, testing small details to help me get an edge.

Take the best athletes in the world as an example, do they have a secret that the rest of the people don't know? Or is it their hard work & dedication that lead them to be successful?
  • #128
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:21pm Feb 21, 2016 3:21pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} its in the DNA of all such traders. EURUSDD taught us that once you give away your secret and everyone knows it, the secret is doomed to fail.
Hey Ephisi,
Allow me to disagree with you on this.
I did at one point believe in that, but I came to the conclusion that this can only be true on a large scale.
Despite being one of the leading FX website, the FF community is waaay too little destroy the success of any kind of so called 'secret'
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Jay and many others have left hints here on forexfactory. only the hardworking are meant to discover the secret. TZ and trend is all you need to catch such big move. i never understood the probability indicator and concept.
On the other hand, I totally agree with you on this part ^
Hard work & dedication are key factors in success in Trading & everything else in life.
  • #129
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:32pm Feb 21, 2016 3:32pm
Quoting Bartleby
{quote} "if everyone knows it".. will not happen..even if it is written in full exposure. Most traders on here i believe trading small accounts within their broker..their orders didnt even reach the real market. And on a market like forex...how many people with how many traded lots do you think it would need to influence the market that bad..that the big guns would change? .. I think its just a quick excuse for not revealing. Dont get me wrong, i can really understand that people are not willing to give out their owned material on a silver plate...
Hey Bartleby,
I couldn't agree more with you on the above


Quoting Bartleby
{quote} And another one: I dont believe in hard work as the "most" important factor. Eureka moments are named moments for a reason..Its not Eureka 16hours per day sessions. If you are looking at a researchable issue from the wrong angle.. you can work as long as you can, but you will never ever find what you are looking for... But beside all that.. Great results Jay , like almost always.
You have a very valid point here. It is important to be looking at an issue from the right angle.
In that respect, I believe that everyone was guided in the same 'correct' direction at some point during the other threads
  • #130
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:35pm Feb 21, 2016 3:35pm
Quoting BillYon
Looking at FX Jays charts sparked some ideas. Thoughts? Searching for that high probability recurrent zone as an anchor target. A magnet Riding MA sentiment towards magnet and collecting the lesser probability problem zones along the way? 1day zone anchor target also collecting any 1 day zones that appear along the way. 4hr problem nuggets Stop loss above Daily MA smoothed 15 All trades target the magnet h=10 for problem zones to clear {image} {image} {image} {image}
Great analysis as usual Billyon
Glad to see you here

Try the same on GBPJPY before I post my chart on it next week & let's see how it matches
  • #131
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:44pm Feb 21, 2016 3:44pm
Quoting FX-Jay
keep an eye on GBPCHF, watch it go to 1.3955. A minor bounce up is not out of the picture, but its only a bonus opportunity to add shorts. {image}
We got our minor bounce up thanks to the whole Brexit nonsense, time for 1.3955


Quoting FX-Jay
The latest EURGBP high that we saw last thursday (0,7897) will be taken out this week!
Didn't quite reach the target last week, again the market was generous (i.e. giving us time & better entry levels)
Not planning to give up on that trade, on the contrary I'll be adding more if I have the opportunity.

P.S. a high above 0.7897 is a conservative thing to say, this can easily reach 0.80
  • #132
  • Feb 21, 2016 5:23pm Feb 21, 2016 5:23pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Great analysis as usual Billyon Glad to see you here Try the same on GBPJPY before I post my chart on it next week & let's see how it matches

ok cool.

I will run more detail when I wake. Just laying it down 5am Bangkok whew! Long day

But here is where i'm seeing the magnet lining up with a 50% fib. I use it from time to time.

Strong yen on daily cycles weak pound

mop up h=10 completed zones from 4hr and daily along the way

Ok sleep time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYDaily.png Size: 152 KB
Attached Image
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #133
  • Feb 21, 2016 6:25pm Feb 21, 2016 6:25pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} {quote} Hey Ellen, Again i repeat, there is no secret. I worked with the same exact material/concepts/formulas/ideas that everyone else had and still have. I may have more experience, maybe more skills, and maybe more interest in the subject which lead me to spend endless hours researching, trying, testing small details to help me get an edge. Take the best athletes in the world as an example, do they have a secret that the rest of the people don't know? Or is it their hard work & dedication that lead them to be successful?
HI
thanks JAY
has the best Athletes in the world they a genetic advantage + the best doctor+ the best doping , has trading sure experienced dedication but some will get it some will never get it.
  • #134
  • Feb 21, 2016 11:19pm Feb 21, 2016 11:19pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey Ephisi, Allow me to disagree with you on this. I did at one point believe in that, but I came to the conclusion that this can only be true on a large scale. Despite being one of the leading FX website, the FF community is waaay too little destroy the success of any kind of so called 'secret' {quote} On the other hand, I totally agree with you on this part ^ Hard work & dedication are key factors in success in Trading & everything else in life.
Yes Jay. I agree forexfactory is insignificant. When I say everyone I do not mean traders on forexfactory. I mean everyone in the market. Once the holygrail is out there I am sure it will spread like wildfire. Market is dynamic and will adjust to make profitable strategies unprofitable after some time. Just like technical analysis. Most technical analysis is now common knowledge. So what does market do? It first violates technical analysis hunts logical stops and after shaking of most trades then decideds to move price in the right direction.
  • #135
  • Feb 22, 2016 3:55am Feb 22, 2016 3:55am
Quoting FX-Jay
Nothing beats the 1st quater trending market 112.35 is next {image}
Hello Jay,

What is the 1st quater trending market?

Green pips to you
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #136
  • Feb 22, 2016 10:34am Feb 22, 2016 10:34am
4hr and daily short train

First red line is highest probability target.

h=10
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYDaily.png Size: 38 KB
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #137
  • Feb 22, 2016 11:02am Feb 22, 2016 11:02am
hi jay, could you please share that indicator which shows total pips in the charts ? Thanks in advance
  • #138
  • Feb 23, 2016 2:02am Feb 23, 2016 2:02am
Quoting BillYon
{quote}i'm seeing the magnet lining up with a 50% fib. I use it from time to time. Strong yen on daily cycles weak pound mop up h=10 completed zones from 4hr and daily along the way {image} {image}
Agreed
Been stacking shorts all the way from 173.
Planning to cover it all around the 50% fib @ 156.50
This has been one of my most profitable trades 'ever', and I do believe that it has even more room to go to the downside, but I'll take my share out & maybe load up later when I start seeing the probabilities going higher again
  • #139
  • Feb 23, 2016 2:10am Feb 23, 2016 2:10am
Quoting limprobable
{quote} Hello Jay, What is the 1st quater trending market? Green pips to you
Hey Limprobable,

After following the market in the last few years, I've realized that we get the best trends in the first quarter of the year (Jan > March)
There may be different explanations for that, but its most probably because of big players' positioning at the beginning of the year.
I didn't take the time yet to try to scientifically study the above, its just an observation.

Best,
Jay
  • #140
  • Feb 23, 2016 2:14am Feb 23, 2016 2:14am
Quoting tradeforlife
hi jay, could you please share that indicator which shows total pips in the charts ? Thanks in advance
Hey Mate,

I've attached the Indicator to this reply.
I found it here on FF, so all credit goes to the creator

Best,
Jay
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 !XPS v8 PROFIT-5.mq4   15 KB | 732 downloads
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