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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #161
  • Feb 17, 2016 4:40am Feb 17, 2016 4:40am
Quoting buster48
Some really nice instructive charts PA with how your evaluating price movement and well worth spending time on for newbies and not so newbies. So thanks for the time your putting in.
Thank you Buster, that's my goal...to get traders to read the charts for themselves and be profitable. I don't want to be a buy/sell signal caller.

Speaking of price movements, Aussie just reached .7130 as expected.
  • #162
  • Feb 17, 2016 5:54am Feb 17, 2016 5:54am
Here's a chart to go along with my above posts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH1 011.png Size: 204 KB
  • #163
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:39am Feb 17, 2016 9:39am
Well, we are at .7140 now on Aussie...60pips higher from that .7080 area I mentioned yesterday. You can't go wrong trading Price Action!


p.s. you can pretty much ignore most news releases....today is a great example. Good USD news and you'd think that would be good for USD, but the A/U goes up!

I stand correct, as I was writing the above...price spiked up almost to .7160. Up 80pips from the lows now! Keep buying Dips on the Aussie until the uptrend fails!
  • #164
  • Feb 17, 2016 10:57am Feb 17, 2016 10:57am
Well, AU has rallied up 100pips today and met it's normal ADR. Could be a short opportunity setting up around .7170-80 area good for 30pips. We shall see! Be careful, FOMC news later today and price can do anything(especially stop hunt in both directions).

Trade Smart!
  • #165
  • Feb 17, 2016 2:35pm Feb 17, 2016 2:35pm
No Setups for the short side. And while E/U and G/U may have sold off some after FOMC minutes, the Aussie did NOT selloff at all! The market keeps bidding up the Aussie and it appears we are heading back to .7200 and going to retest the highs from February 4th(if not go higher). Once again, it just proves that in the current market conditions Buying Dips on Aussie is the highest probability of a winning trade! Now don't get me wrong, it won't trend one way forever...but as long as we are making Higher Highs and Higher Lows, longs are the better choice. When we start getting Lower Highs and Lower Lows, then shorts will be the way to go.

Happy Trading!
  • #166
  • Feb 17, 2016 6:33pm Feb 17, 2016 6:33pm
Man, I've been waiting over a week now for AU to get back up to .7200 area. Guess news tonight wasn't going to do it so far. Maybe this will turn out to be another pullback for a long. Too early to tell or enter a trade. Need to see if .7110 area holds for support(if it makes it that low) and next area would be around .7070 plus/minus 10pips. I'll be patient on this one.
  • #167
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:32pm Feb 17, 2016 7:32pm
You know, as I sit here looking at Price Action a few things stick out. 1) After Tuesday's selloff, I mentioned price would pullback to .7130 area...well, wouldn't you know, that's exactly where price dropped tonight after the bad Aussie data and stalled. 2) It's been an hour since the bad Aussie data and price is only 20pips lower then pre-news(not much selling or follow through). 3) We had a 100pip rally today on Aussie(.7080-.7180) and the drop after news to .7130 looks like just a 50% retrace of today's rally.

While everything still points to the Aussie still being well bid/supported....I technically don't have anything to get me into a trade right now. So I'll call it a night and try again tomorrow.

Happy Trading!
  • #168
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:53pm Feb 17, 2016 7:53pm
Ine more thing I'd like to comment on...occasionally I get asked if I follow the news or trade fundamentals? Well, the short answer is no. Today is the perfect example, we had good US news and bad AUD news. But where is price??? It rallied 100pups during London&US session and only 20 pips from the highs during Asian session. One would have expected price to drop today/tonight.

Now that brings me to my next comment, while I don't trade the news data I do pay attention to how price reacts to it. Again, today being a good example. I have a better understanding that I should be buying dips on Aussie because no matter what good US news there is or bad AUD news, price just doesn't stay down. Lots of buyers keep bidding the Aussie right back up.

Just some food for thought. Cheers!
  • #169
  • Feb 18, 2016 2:25am Feb 18, 2016 2:25am
charts are starting to look choppy now, not just on Aussie but e/u and g/u too. On Aussie price is staying in that 50pip range since Aussie data came out. Since it's not very clear, I'm still sitting on the sidelines.
  • #170
  • Feb 18, 2016 2:56am Feb 18, 2016 2:56am
Quoting PA is King
charts are starting to look choppy now, not just on Aussie but e/u and g/u too. On Aussie price is staying in that 50pip range since Aussie data came out. Since it's not very clear, I'm still sitting on the sidelines.
I think your right PA, I was thinking of a buy off .7140 ish due to a 50fib(which I cant remember if you use them or not) between yesterdays low and high +50ema + recent resistance turned support of .7135 area but not sure now.
  • #171
  • Feb 18, 2016 2:58am Feb 18, 2016 2:58am
I stand corrected, the 1hr chart just retested the .7130 area again and bounced up. If this candle closes at .7140 or above it will be a double bottom, a pin bar, and close above the 50ema. Just might be worth a 15-20pip(stop loss around .7120-25) risk in order to make 30-50 if we price goes back up.
  • #172
  • Feb 18, 2016 2:59am Feb 18, 2016 2:59am
Quoting buster48
{quote} I think your right PA, I was thinking of a buy off .7140 ish due to a 50fib(which I cant remember if you use them or not) between yesterdays low and high +50ema + recent resistance turned support of .7135 area but not sure now.
I wasn't sure either about an hour ago, but the small risk could be worth the reward.
  • #173
  • Feb 18, 2016 3:01am Feb 18, 2016 3:01am
well, there is the bullish pin bar candle close. I hope it comes back down a few pips, I don't want to long at .7150....7140-45 would be better.

Well, never mind now price just took off, .7160 now, missed my entry.

That .7130 area has flipped from resistance initially yesterday to support today!
  • #174
  • Feb 18, 2016 3:25am Feb 18, 2016 3:25am
Here's a chart to show what I'm currently looking at...used the 15min chart since it's a little more clear. I forgot to circle it on the chart, but if you look where I used the orange circles to point out the double bottom at .7130...then look left you can see yesterday where that "was" resistance initially before price broke through there later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproM15 009.png Size: 163 KB
  • #175
  • Feb 18, 2016 3:41am Feb 18, 2016 3:41am
well there you have it, price just hit .7170!!! Would have been an easy 30 pips if I was a little quicker. Hope some of you made some pips!
  • #176
  • Feb 18, 2016 4:30am Feb 18, 2016 4:30am
Quoting PA is King
well there you have it, price just hit .7170!!! Would have been an easy 30 pips if I was a little quicker. Hope some of you made some pips!
I got rid of my shorts I took out just before employment figures came out this morning. I only got about half the pips i would have taken if I'd closed immediately after

news, but i held for a while expecting more negative impact. But as you have said, PA, don't fight the charts. As it is now, it's hard to keep a good Aussie down. Currently

have a long on AUD/JPY 35 pips up from 81.25, showing similar action to AUD/USD, but with wider range.
  • #177
  • Feb 18, 2016 6:58am Feb 18, 2016 6:58am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I got rid of my shorts I took out just before employment figures came out this morning. I only got about half the pips i would have taken if I'd closed immediately after news, but i held for a while expecting more negative impact. But as you have said, PA, don't fight the charts. As it is now, it's hard to keep a good Aussie down. Currently have a long on AUD/JPY 35 pips up from 81.25, showing similar action to AUD/USD, but with wider range.

Glad to hear about your pips! Great job and good choice not to fight the market. I hope more people post like you have, I feel like I talk to myself too much on here sometimes. hahaha

Enjoy the pips!
  • #178
  • Feb 18, 2016 7:02am Feb 18, 2016 7:02am
From a technical perspective, it looks like the dip down to .7130 on the 1hr chart was another Higher Low that formed. Currently price is stuck between .7150-70, a narrow range...so we should break out one way or the other before too long. As for me, I noticed that E/U has sold off a lot, the G/U rallied and A/U is up modestly...seems the market is getting a little out of whack(meaning usually if it's weak or strong USD then E/U, G/U, A/U will all move in the same direction). I'll be cautious at this point as other factors seem to be moving the market.
  • #179
  • Feb 18, 2016 7:52am Feb 18, 2016 7:52am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Glad to hear about your pips! Great job and good choice not to fight the market. I hope more people post like you have, I feel like I talk to myself too much on here sometimes. hahaha Enjoy the pips!

I'm sure I'm not alone in appreciating what you have to say PA. I think most or all of us that watch the other AUD thread keep an eye on yours as well, and I'm sure you
keep up to date with the other. I like what you said about not paying much notice to the news, just taking your clues from the charts. The news complicates, and often
contradicts what the charts show, and can be another factor contributing to self doubt and lack of conviction in belief of chart analysis and trading decisions based on that
analysis. A commendable approach. I mentioned the wider spread on the price action on the AUD/JPY. I closed my long earlier at 82.69, taking 44 pips on the little upswing, even though I got in a little late after a hammer pin bar similar to the one on AUD/USD. My exit was pre set based on earlier highs today, so I was lucky enough to obtain top price while I watched "The Martian" on DVD. Something for everyone to watch for, generally same up and down cycles as AUD/USD but a few more pips between highs and lows.

Enjoy the night,
I'm going to get some sleep for a change
  • #180
  • Edited 11:50am Feb 18, 2016 11:08am | Edited 11:50am
A/U just hit the .7130 for the third time, and now another 1hr bullish pinbar. Might be too late in the day for a big gain, but 20-30pips should be possible. If you got in by .7140 you're +10 already!

update: looks like there is a descending trendline on the 15min chart that is around .7155 and price seems to have stalled out just above .7150 for now. If you're long, keep a small stoploss on the trade around .7125 or just take a smaller profit. I don't see much movement happening the rest of the day until maybe Asian session. Or better yet, call it an early week and have a 3 day weekend!
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