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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,221
  • Feb 7, 2016 4:06pm Feb 7, 2016 4:06pm
Which ever way you look at it, the trend remains down until the daily closes above $34.50 ...or thereabouts
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The central line is EMA-50
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,222
  • Feb 7, 2016 9:15pm Feb 7, 2016 9:15pm
I'm currently working on some correlation trading strategies and have a few questions.

How does Natural Gas trade? Is it gappy due to the trading session nature of the futures contract?

Does it behave the same as Oil. In terms of big moves at certain times of the day?
  • #2,223
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:30pm Feb 9, 2016 12:30pm
looking for 25$ as a first target
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  • #2,224
  • Feb 9, 2016 6:16pm Feb 9, 2016 6:16pm
I read something today saying that Cushing is now so full it does not have the spare storage capacity to properly blend oil ready for use by refineries. ...so the oil flow will back-up in the gulf or wherever.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,225
  • Feb 9, 2016 8:56pm Feb 9, 2016 8:56pm
Iran ready to cooperate with Saudis on oil: Report http://www.cnbc.com/id/103375395
Possible small rally with this news
  • #2,226
  • Feb 11, 2016 1:03am Feb 11, 2016 1:03am
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Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,227
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:08am Feb 16, 2016 2:08am
I see a bullish engulfing pattern on daily in oil. Obviously connected with the hype of oil ministers meeting but oil traders should be aware.

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"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,228
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:20am Feb 16, 2016 2:20am
Watch this space....

"
(Reuters) - The oil ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela have started a closed-door meeting in Doha on Tuesday, sources said.

The ministers did not speak to reporters, and the agenda and the schedule for the meeting were not released.
"
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,229
  • Edited 4:12am Feb 16, 2016 3:56am | Edited 4:12am
Quoting Exodus
Watch this space.... " (Reuters) - The oil ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela have started a closed-door meeting in Doha on Tuesday, sources said. The ministers did not speak to reporters, and the agenda and the schedule for the meeting were not released. "


Output levels frozen edit: sorry I missed out the part about 'allegedly'.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,230
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:15am Feb 16, 2016 4:15am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Output levels frozen edit: sorry I missed out the part about 'allegedly'.
even if they "freeze" it, they have chosen to peg it at January's numbers which were very high.

So to sum it up: Freeze is the new word for "no cut".

Also looking at what Russia and Iran are doing in Syria from the Saudi perspective, it is unlikely they will allow a cut so that Russia will profit.

So more down based on fundamentals from here.
  • #2,231
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:35am Feb 16, 2016 9:35am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} even if they "freeze" it, they have chosen to peg it at January's numbers which were very high. So to sum it up: Freeze is the new word for "no cut". Also looking at what Russia and Iran are doing in Syria from the Saudi perspective, it is unlikely they will allow a cut so that Russia will profit. So more down based on fundamentals from here.
...

Freeze is the new word for "no cut".
  • #2,232
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:51am Feb 16, 2016 9:51am
I think that the oil can not fall all the time on the market laws. But really, judging by events in the world, and judging by the way the United States are set to fall in the oil, it will tend to fall to 30.
  • #2,233
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:59pm Feb 16, 2016 2:59pm
Just what we didn't need at this moment in time..... https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/sh...111553810.html
Although, since it does not require lifting, why is it uneconomic below $35??

Quote
Shares in UK Oil and Gas Investments soared by as much as 77pc after the Aim-listed developer announced that oil from its well near Gatwick Airport in Surrey flowed at a faster rate than expected.

UK Oil and Gas (Ukog) has claimed that oil from the so called "Gatwick gusher" at Horse Hill flowed from 900m below ground level to the surface without extra help from operators, and at a better rate than expected of 463 barrels a day.

The exploration company said the first ever flow test proves that significant quantities of Surrey oil can be brought to the surface at excellent flow rates.

But the ongoing oil price rout could stifle the development of the project if tax rates remain high, warned Globaldata energy research boss Matthew Jurecky. "The oil price is a third of what it was when this [project] began," Mr Jurecky said.

According to his estimates a pre-tax break-even price for the project would be between $10-$30 per barrel, and hit the high end of this range if oil production tails off quickly as seen in US onshore oil wells. The break-even price could then climb to highs of $50/b after tax if the Chancellor holds the industry to a strong headline rate, making it uneconomic at the current market rate of under $35/b.

Further appraisal is still needed to determine the size and flow rate of the wells, although initial indications are "quite good", Jurecky added.
Ukog's executive chairman Stephen Sanderson said: "This is a very significant event for the company and for oil and gas activity in the Weald basin of southern England.

Importantly, tests so far show oil has flowed to the surface under its own pressure and has not, so far, required artificial lift.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,234
  • Feb 17, 2016 3:06am Feb 17, 2016 3:06am
Quoting Exodus
Just what we didn't need at this moment in time..... https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/sh...111553810.html Although, since it does not require lifting, why is it uneconomic below $35?? {quote}[/i]
I will just say one thing, based on my years of professional experience in the market: If you remember what happened in 2008 when oil hit $150, everyone and their grandmother, including well known investors, had joined the tune of not enough oil, alternative energy not efficient enough, etc. Interestingly, at the same time all analysts, researchers, geologists and their grandmothers rediscovered, republished and re-researched information about the scarcity of oil and concluded that the end is approaching, oilwise, supporting $150. So, my conclusion is that very very few people have balls in this market to have their own opinion. It is easier to kick them while they are down than stand up for them. So at these levels, I don't believe anything coming out of any analysts concerning the future of oil, or any calls from investment banks. Case in point, look at Goldmans and how they cancelled more than half their bets for this year. No one has a clue, they just follow the herd. It is easier. I prefer to follow the legendary Peter Lynch in observing the world and reaching my own conclusions. But really observing, not just looking around. I am not just happy to take my huge SUV to the pump and say "oh cool, I can fill it up with $30!" I think of my pension plan and what low price for oil means for that (if I have oil companies in my portfolio), I look at the people in the US that have been laid off because the wells are closing, one after the other, etc., just to give you a picture, and my conclusion is that oil at these levels is unsustainable. We have not rediscovered the wheel, our reliance on oil is where it was 8 years ago. And while I love alternative energy, it is still not efficient enough and without huge subsidies from all governments, alternative energy companies would be worth zero. I have traded them and I have seen them going from $90 to $0.90 when governments announce that they will not subsidize them any more.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,235
  • Feb 17, 2016 6:28am Feb 17, 2016 6:28am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I will just say one thing, based on my years of professional experience in the market: If you remember what happened in 2008 when oil hit $150, everyone and their grandmother, including well known investors, had joined the tune of not enough oil, alternative energy not efficient enough, etc. Interestingly, at the same time all analysts, researchers, geologists and their grandmothers rediscovered, republished and re-researched information about the scarcity of oil and concluded that the end is approaching, oilwise, supporting $150. So, my...
something like this:
Attached Image
  • #2,236
  • Feb 17, 2016 6:37am Feb 17, 2016 6:37am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} something like this: {image}
precisely
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,237
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:35am Feb 17, 2016 7:35am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} something like this: {image}

  • #2,238
  • Feb 17, 2016 8:51am Feb 17, 2016 8:51am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I will just say one thing .....
He-ey ..ay..ay!
The post was purely to inform that Britain (let's keep using that word, Britain) has viable onshore oil.
Like we really need it just at this juncture, ...although... by the time the pipes and other infrastructure are 'in' it may prove just timely.

The fishy smell comes from the anticipated break-even price. I suspect it is just lubrication for the path to/from the Exchequer.

Why might it cost $30 to have a job-seeker stand there and swap the barrels when one becomes full?
The Saudis do this for $5 per barrel. Of course, they probably have an army of convicts.....

As for oil running out......
My estimate (just as accurate as anybody else's BTW) is that we can see out this Century at the current rate of consumption.
It might get a bit warm around here while we are doing that.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,239
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:08am Feb 17, 2016 9:08am
Quoting your post was not meant as a way to discredit it or contradict your statement.

It was just an observation that this kind of information tends to surface when oil is at 28 not when oil is at 110. That's it. Whether we have enough oil for the next century I don't know and do not care to make any guess. I certainly have not changed my consumption pattern but I know one thing that the truth is not at 28 or at 110. It is somewhere in the middle. What I really care is whether something is over or undervalued. And oil seems undervalued to me at this moment.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,240
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:10am Feb 17, 2016 9:10am
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
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