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Stocks - specifically the liquid energy sector

  • #61
  • Feb 7, 2016 8:24am Feb 7, 2016 8:24am
Quoting leeshindig
oh you mean for gold spot to dip under that $800 production cost? Can't see that with the markets like they are right now. I misunderstood. Personally I don't like to catch a falling knife, so would look for signs of life/reversal before making a move. It's served me well in my two decades of investing
Yes that is what I meant

Gold is just about the hardest thing in the world to invest in I think.

The arguements are so compelling though, there is so much hype and misinformation in this sector it makes it very difficult to judge
  • #62
  • Feb 7, 2016 10:52am Feb 7, 2016 10:52am
Quoting verv
{quote} Miners don't look like a great bet with China stuttering. Gdxj is a better gold bet imo. The major flows into gold are speculative rather than value driven which makes it an incredibly difficult investment to analysis. I would own a max of 10% gold or related assets, and would only ever trade these speculative moves. If you were to follow the advice of the gold bugs for the last 5 years you would have lost your shirt. I know a couple of guys holding large gold ports down 60% from their highs. A 10% pop is nothing...
IMO, GDXJ is better when gold prices are going up or there's consolidation in the industry but in a down market it's more risky than GDX. GDXJ is the junior (smaller) miners so they're usually more financially stressed if gold should continue to fall as their costs of production are often higher than the larger miners. They often have a larger debt-to-equity ratio than the large miners. Similar situation in the oil industry now as the smaller companies are filing for bankruptcy but the larger companies will survive as they have lower costs & can cut dividends to save on $$$.

I have long positions in GDX and silver. Also a spread where I'm short gold vs. long silver in equal $$ amounts.
  • #63
  • Feb 7, 2016 11:28am Feb 7, 2016 11:28am
Quoting srt
{quote} IMO, GDXJ is better when gold prices are going up or there's consolidation in the industry but in a down market it's more risky than GDX. GDXJ is the junior (smaller) miners so they're usually more financially stressed if gold should continue to fall as their costs of production are often higher than the larger miners. They often have a larger debt-to-equity ratio than the large miners. Similar situation in the oil industry now as the smaller companies are filing for bankruptcy but the larger companies will survive as they have lower costs...

srt and lee - I said earlier than I felt that gold didn't have a catalyst to move higher...

well some unwelcome news on the state of european banks may be enough to catapult gold

see here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post8737778

edit - in future I think we keep the gold talk out of this thread
  • #64
  • Feb 7, 2016 11:41am Feb 7, 2016 11:41am
Hmm interesting view.

Yup, agree on topic , Oil?

Too much uncertainty just now. Good for knife catching, good for being stripped of your wealth for a couple of year.

Plenty time to make a move imo, no need to be macho and catch the bottom in what could be a 3 to 4 year slow rise after fear has been removed.
  • #65
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:02pm Feb 7, 2016 3:02pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oi...-idUSKCN0VD0D7


thought this was interesting..
  • #66
  • Feb 7, 2016 4:19pm Feb 7, 2016 4:19pm
Quoting verv
{quote} srt and lee - I said earlier than I felt that gold didn't have a catalyst to move higher... well some unwelcome news on the state of european banks may be enough to catapult gold see here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post8737778 edit - in future I think we keep the gold talk out of this thread
Thanks, I will read your post in Ja's thread.

Gold, where is the best or existing place for such a discussion?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #67
  • Feb 7, 2016 4:26pm Feb 7, 2016 4:26pm
Quoting verv
{quote} It isn't below production cost if they are profitable at 800-1000, how gold be below production cost if they can turn a be profit?
From a recent report last month. Production cost is below $700

For immediate release

7th January 2016




Centamin plc ("Centamin" or "the Company")

(LSE:CEY, TSX:CEE)


Q4 2015 Preliminary Production Results and 2016 Production Guidance

Centamin announces preliminary production results for the quarter ended 31 December 2015 from its Sukari Gold Mine ("Sukari") in Egypt.

Preliminary total gold production for the quarter was 117,644 ounces, a 12% increase on the previous quarter and an 8% decrease on Q4 2014. This brings full year production to 439,072 ounces, a 16% increase on 2014 and within guidance of between 430,000 and 440,000 ounces for 2015.

Open pit total material movement decreased 4% on the previous quarter to 13,754kt with open pit ore production increasing by 1% to 2,229kt. The run of mine ore stockpile balance decreased by 328kt to 704kt at the end of the period.

During the quarter an unfortunate incident occurred within the open pit operation, when a contractor's employee was involved in a rock collapse whilst relocating a grade control drill rig. The operator, and sole occupant of the drill rig, was fatally injured in the incident.

A full review of the relevant operating procedures has been completed, subsequent to which open pit mining rates have increased towards target levels.

The underground operation delivered 300kt of ore, a 4% decrease on Q3 2015.

Quarterly throughput at the process plant was 2,758kt, a 3% increase on the previous quarter and in line with our target rate of 11 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HandyClip_001.jpg Size: 50 KB


Forecast production for 2016 from the Sukari Gold Mine is 470,000 ounces at a cash operating cost of US$680 per ounce and all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) of US$900 per ounce. This would represent a 7% increase on 2015 production and a reduction over 2015 cost guidance of US$700 per ounce cash operating cost and US$950 per ounce AISC.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #68
  • Feb 7, 2016 4:44pm Feb 7, 2016 4:44pm
Interesting picture of the Spanish plant, thanks.

Quoting verv
... What do you see coming in the next few months?
...all gathered from the usual sources of suspicious inaccuracy...

A number of situations are in confluence:
Venezuela's economy and political situation is deteriorating further as their oil revenues reduce
Saudi is determined to hang onto its market share, diplomacy is deflecting outright mud-slinging at the moment
Iran has been sitting on a floating stock-pile and intends to increase production by 500kbopd as soon as unfettered shipments commence
Small countries are beginning to go bust, Azerbaijan and Nigeria so far.....
The Syrian conflict is dragging-in more and more people
Da'esh have allegedly assumed control of Libyan oil production

On top of all that some (all ?) of the oil majors are seeing their stock prices fall. I have not looked at Chevron and Exxon-Mobil. Have a peek at Total, not down by much but a little depressed and holding up better than the next two. BP is in a mess, currently around 60% of their peak value and still suffering from GoM spillage issues, and now their revenue streams are suffering as declared in the most recent final results. Royal-Dutch-Shell had been floating along more-or-less unscathed until last June when the slide set-in. All of this will hit valuations in some funds who generally hold a modest percentage in the major players.

I missed the pop in Circle Oil on Friday last. I was too busy watching RDS.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #69
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:49am Feb 8, 2016 3:49am
Quoting Exodus
Interesting picture of the Spanish plant, thanks. {quote} ...all gathered from the usual sources of suspicious inaccuracy... A number of situations are in confluence: Venezuela's economy and political situation is deteriorating further as their oil revenues reduce Saudi is determined to hang onto its market share, diplomacy is deflecting outright mud-slinging at the moment Iran has been sitting on a floating stock-pile and intends to increase production by 500kbopd as soon as unfettered shipments commence Small countries are beginning to go bust,...
That is an interesting check list of things to look out for, several of which are news to me - cheers for that.

Re: the cost of gold. It is definitely closer to $700 than the current spot price. However if the hot money is heading into gold, say as a result of global financial turmoil, it would be foolish not to try and trade that - silver would be my vehicle of choice.
  • #70
  • Feb 8, 2016 8:05am Feb 8, 2016 8:05am
Quoting verv
{quote} That is an interesting check list of things to look out for, several of which are news to me - cheers for that. Re: the cost of gold. It is definitely closer to $700 than the current spot price. However if the hot money is heading into gold, say as a result of global financial turmoil, it would be foolish not to try and trade that - silver would be my vehicle of choice.
...the two favourites have been running up recently.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #71
  • Feb 11, 2016 3:07am Feb 11, 2016 3:07am
After the report yesterday that Tullow Oil made a somewhat reduced $-billion loss compared to last year, we find that one of the directors has raided his piggy-bank and trebled his holding in shares of his employer. What a guy...!

Further down the list of director-buys was this unfortunate entry showing that Brian Gilvary has lavished the cost of taking a family to the theatre, so they lucked-out for the sake of 95 shares in BP! One can't help thinking that some of these disclosures which are required by stock exchange rules could be better stated....

"Bp (BP.)
Director name: Gilvary,Brian
Amount purchased: 95 @ 334.45p
Value: £317.73 "
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #72
  • Feb 11, 2016 4:01am Feb 11, 2016 4:01am
I can't help thinking that suggestions for the oil price improving in the second half are a little optimistic. We have not yet seen any major change in production or demand.

"
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil slid on Thursday, dented by record U.S. crude inventories at the Cushing delivery point, worries about the demand outlook, and as Goldman Sachs said prices would remain low and volatile until the second half of the year.

In a sign that producers are still competing for market share by lowering prices, Iran offered its crude to Asia at a discount to rival OPEC producer Saudi Arabia.

Brent crude futures were down 31 cents at $30.53 per barrel at 0850 GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $26.76 per barrel, down 69 cents and not far off the $26.19 intraday low hit in January that was their weakest price since 2003.
"
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #73
  • Feb 17, 2016 12:53am Feb 17, 2016 12:53am
I posted this entry in the Oil & Gas thread, when it probably should have been in this thread.

UK onshore oil discoveries appear solid, and this one requires no fracking.
....so just the transportation issues to overcome.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #74
  • Feb 17, 2016 5:26pm Feb 17, 2016 5:26pm
Quoting Exodus
I posted this entry in the Oil & Gas thread, when it probably should have been in this thread. UK onshore oil discoveries appear solid, and this one requires no fracking. ....so just the transportation issues to overcome.

Any word on the quantity of oil found. I seen something about 400 barrels a day - not a lot of production.
  • #75
  • Feb 18, 2016 3:10am Feb 18, 2016 3:10am
Quoting verv
{quote} Any word on the quantity of oil found. I seen something about 400 barrels a day - not a lot of production.
It was around 400bpd. However this was a test flow through a smaller choke than had been used previously and the flow was not pumped. The prospect seems to have around 270mmbo per square mile, so that is a lot and matches the claim of 'potentially billions' which was doing the news rounds last year.

The Horse Hill-1 test well has undergone 'extended' flow test.
Here's what the company said on 16th February

UK Oil & Gas Investments PLC (London AIM and ISDX: UKOG) announces that Horse Hill Developments Limited has informed the Company that light, 40-degree API, sweet oil has flowed naturally to surface from an 80-foot zone within the Lower Kimmeridge limestone interval at a depth of approximately 900 metres below ground level.

Flow commenced at around 10.00am GMT yesterday at an initial instantaneous rate in excess of 700 barrels per day using a 1-inch choke, in an approximate mix of 50:50 oil to water. The well was then choked back to 32/64 inches resulting in a steady early oil rate in excess of 463 barrels of oil per day over a further 7.3-hour period, in an approximate mix of over 99% oil and less than 1% water.

The Lower Kimmeridge flow period is planned to continue today at 0700 following an overnight shut-in from 1900 Monday. Upon completion, Phase 2 and Phase 3 operations will move to the shallower Upper Kimmeridge limestone and Portland sandstone zones at approximately 840 and 615 metres below ground level, respectively.

The HH-1 discovery well, the original exploration drilling phase originally completed at the end of 2014, is located within onshore exploration Licence PEDL137, on the northern side of the Weald Basin near Gatwick Airport. UKOG owns a 20.163% interest in PEDL137.

...and they published this further update on 17th February

Following the announcement on 16 February 2016, UK Oil & Gas Investments PLC (London AIM and ISDX: UKOG) announces that Horse Hill Developments Limited ("HHDL") has informed the Company that light, 40-degree API, sweet oil has continued to flow naturally to surface from an 80-foot zone within the Lower Kimmeridge limestone interval at a depth of approximately 900 metres below ground level.

Flow re-commenced at around 07.45 am GMT yesterday at a steady oil rate in excess of 456 barrels of oil per day over a further 9.5-hour period using a smaller 28/64-inch choke in order to further stabilise the flow. Yesterday's flow consisted of dry oil with zero water.

As previously announced, Phase 2 and Phase 3 operations will move to the shallower Upper Kimmeridge limestone and Portland sandstone zones at approximately 840 and 615 metres below ground level, respectively, once the Lower Kimmeridge testing is completed.

The HH-1 discovery well, the original exploration drilling phase originally completed at the end of 2014, is located within onshore exploration Licence PEDL137, on the northern side of the Weald Basin near Gatwick Airport. UKOG owns a 20.163% interest in PEDL137.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #76
  • Feb 18, 2016 4:00am Feb 18, 2016 4:00am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} It was around 400bpd. However this was a test flow through a smaller choke than had been used previously and the flow was not pumped. The prospect seems to have around 270mmbo per square mile, so that is a lot and matches the claim of 'potentially billions' which was doing the news rounds last year. The Horse Hill-1 test well has undergone 'extended' flow test. Here's what the company said on 16th February UK Oil & Gas Investments PLC (London AIM and ISDX: UKOG) announces that Horse Hill Developments Limited has informed the Company that...

100 billion was the rumour, which if true is just mental.
  • #77
  • Feb 26, 2016 3:22am Feb 26, 2016 3:22am
More crunching sounds from the E&P section....

"(Reuters) - Oil producer Petroceltic International Plc's largest shareholder, WorldView Capital Management, offered to acquire the company for 6.42 million pounds ($8.98 million) in cash, a month after Petroceltic said it was considering an offer.

Sunny Hill Ltd, a unit of WorldView, said it would pay 3 pence for each Petroceltic share in issue, representing an 83 percent discount to the stock's closing price on Thursday. Sunny Hill said it believed Petroceltic's equity value was close to zero, given its financial position.

Earlier this week, Petroceltic said it had received a waiver of repayments under its senior bank facility until March 4.

Shares in the company fell about 56 percent on Friday morning in London. They have lost 92 percent of their value since October 2014 until Thursday, while Brent oil prices have fallen by more than 60 percent. "
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #78
  • Feb 26, 2016 5:35am Feb 26, 2016 5:35am
Quoting Exodus
More crunching sounds from the E&P section.... "(Reuters) - Oil producer Petroceltic International Plc's largest shareholder, WorldView Capital Management, offered to acquire the company for 6.42 million pounds ($8.98 million) in cash, a month after Petroceltic said it was considering an offer. Sunny Hill Ltd, a unit of WorldView, said it would pay 3 pence for each Petroceltic share in issue, representing an 83 percent discount to the stock's closing price on Thursday. Sunny Hill said it believed Petroceltic's equity value was close to zero, given...
Companies sitting on otherwise good resources are getting taken to the cleaner. If the company was really worth close to zero then why both offering 6.4 million. It is the assets they are after.

Good time to be an investor in this sector if you have the money
  • #79
  • Mar 29, 2016 3:57am Mar 29, 2016 3:57am
Further to some discussions surrounding alternative technologies that have occurred here on FF, I present the 'invisible' B-class.

Inserted Video
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #80
  • Apr 25, 2016 3:29pm Apr 25, 2016 3:29pm
most of my money is now in oil, it has been doing well recently, the tide seems to be turning.

OPEC might be done but the world doses t need OPEC anyway
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