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  • #741
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:38am Feb 16, 2016 4:38am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} I was guilty of switching systems especially in the early phase. At first I thought something was wrong with me. You know what people say. They tell you, you have to stick with one otherwise you won't see any concrete result. But later down the road I realised that I didn't know enough. How are you going to be successful in a dynamic market such as FX when the best you can do is one trick. If all I have is one trick and I'm against a market that has many different faces. The chances are I'm going to see what I want to see. You have to have...
Glad you've got the point
  • #742
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:44am Feb 16, 2016 4:44am
[quote=strongtrader;8756375]{quote} Hmmmmm.....i'm afraid there is a bit of confusion about the difference between forecasting the future and knowing what is going to happen. Thinking where price will go means you are creating a bias in your mind; understanding what is happening in the present moment allows you to know what is going to happen in the very next, meaning next 2 or 3 price bars. Said that I do not have any kind of bias about what price will do, and I do not want to have it, for it makes you unable to see what is happening NOW, but I do have a clear idea of what is going to happen in the very next.....

It can be confusing I agree, but we do need bias...how can I put on a long trade without long bias? The very fact that I have put on that trade means that I have long bias, however short term that may be. I think it's necessary to have bias as long as you don't get married to it if it turns out that you are wrong. I think predicting what is going to happen in future time is necessary because the moment you put on that trade, you are making a prediction about something that hasn't happened yet. As long as this prediction is based upon what you can actually physically see on your charts, then it is legitimate, but if one puts on a trade or makes a prediction based upon a hunch or some other subjective criteria, then we can refer back to that crystal ball analogy you mentioned in your post above.
  • #743
  • Feb 16, 2016 5:05am Feb 16, 2016 5:05am
Quoting cat
{quote} Yeah way to go!! THAT'S the way to trade in my book
Agreed
  • #744
  • Feb 16, 2016 5:06am Feb 16, 2016 5:06am
I've got your point Cat.
However, given that we are in a world of possibilities and not certainties, there is a difference between predicting the next short term move and knowing it with a high level accuracy.
When we predict something we are playing the game with no more than 50% probabilities, when we know we are near certainty; which of the two is that we are playing with, depends on the method we have......Market is not random
  • #745
  • Feb 16, 2016 5:18am Feb 16, 2016 5:18am
I agree with you all that Sakk's chart is correct; is far away from my trading method but is correct and good.
There are many ways or methods to trade profitably, this is out of discussion.
What I wanted to point out is that while there are many ways to trade, there is only one good way to learn and to make things easy to understand (well, better to say simplier because they are not easy at all).
I'll make you an example:
let's say you are in a little town at the foot of a hill from which you have a panoramic view over the whole town; now your work is to figure out the map of the town: would you walk through all of its streets, one after another, or would you better climb over the hill?
  • #746
  • Feb 16, 2016 5:29am Feb 16, 2016 5:29am
Quoting strongtrader
I've got your point Cat. However, given that we are in a world of possibilities and not certainties, there is a difference between predicting the next short term move and knowing it with a high level accuracy. When we predict something we are playing the game with no more than 50% probabilities, when we know we are near certainty; which of the two is that we are playing with, depends on the method we have......Market is not random
No, the market is far from random as you say. The 50% rule applies only to gambling. As a trader, it depends. If you are a trader with a 50% win/loss ration then the net % in your favour is zero, from which you can still make excellent money provided your wins are bigger than your losses. But if your wins to losses over a given period stands at say 68%, then that is the game you are playing, with 18% in your favour. We can never know whether a trade is going to work out, but we can be 100% sure in ourselves that we are going to take the trade, and this certainty goes hand in hand with prediction - I'm buying at this level because I predict, by way of my technical analysis, that the price will go up.

knowing doesn't enter into the equation, because we never can know. But predicting and having a bias, combined with the flexibility to change that bias as the market dictates, that is surely what trading is all about.

I'm not going out of my way to counter what you say strong, you raise an interesting conundrum, that between predicting and knowing, and certainty vs uncertainty. Mark Douglas, author of ' Trading in the Zone ' who sadly passed away not long ago, calls trading a game of probabilities, and all a trader has to do is get the probabilities on his/her side - which can be done with an edge and total conviction, that certainty we need when we put on a trade.
  • #747
  • Feb 16, 2016 5:45am Feb 16, 2016 5:45am
As Cat and Revoli have got me back looking at seconds charts - this after looking at both Renko and Range Bar and Tick Charts - I think this morning's fake-out aka stop sweep is interesting and illustrates why I personally am staying with time based charts.

The 15 minutes of very tight ranged action during the normally most active time of the day was a great warning to be prepared for a break-out and my Buy Stop was triggered - with slippage - during that 20 second spike up to my +30 band where I closed. After the small green doji that was the high, I sold anticipating a retrace and collected some more ticks......ALL of this within ~90 seconds.

What I am pointing out is how both RBs and Renko smooth out this frantic action, thereby, IMO, missing out on important detail......that of TIME which as WD Gann tells us, is as important as price.

Doubtless there will be other opinions

PS Thanks Medici for reminding me to use B / S Stops for entries

PSS The two vertical red lines were system sells
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #748
  • Feb 16, 2016 6:02am Feb 16, 2016 6:02am
Quoting Islander
morning's fake-out aka stop sweep is interesting and illustrates why I personally am staying with time based charts...;}
That was a wicked one, a stop reaper if ever I've seen one, and fortunately not something you often see out of nothing, even on the Dax, though it did demonstrate the importance of a good high entry following the London open. Although I said out of nothing, it did rebound off the 15m 100sma, always an important one, it was just the strength of it that caught me out.
  • #749
  • Feb 16, 2016 6:04am Feb 16, 2016 6:04am
Just to conclude my conversation with strongtrader about, well, it's already a bit hazy actually
Attached Image
  • #750
  • Edited 6:30am Feb 16, 2016 6:17am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting cat
Just to conclude my conversation with strongtrader about, well, it's already a bit hazy actually {image}
LOL!! you want to conclude right at the moment is becoming interesting......let me tease you one more time:
you agreed that market is not random....this is a great point.....now I tell you this:
if market is not random, there must be a scheme; for how complex it could be it is a scheme.
Now, once you know the scheme you do not predict anymore, you know; the only reson you cannot know with absolute certainty is that market is alive, so that is the scheme.
What can happen is that the scheme changes just after your entry, but if your entry is well timed the probabilities that this could happen are very few; so in such a situation you are no more predicting anyway.
BUT if you have a bias you cannot see anymore the scheme.
Now if you are tired or bored, I will end it here, but think of it when you have time.
  • #751
  • Feb 16, 2016 6:23am Feb 16, 2016 6:23am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote}BUT if you have a bias you cannot see anymore the scheme.
Good point
  • #752
  • Feb 16, 2016 6:29am Feb 16, 2016 6:29am
This was the short opp at around 09.40 after the pullback following the short opps posted earleir by Sakk. The 20 sec chart gave a much cleaner entry than the 1 m here, but I'm posting my 1m chart because most people here don't go lower than this. You can see that from the four long southerly stalks right above the Daily central pivot, the price rises up to the 20ema, falls a bit, pushes up again, goes sideways for 5 mins, then pushes up again to the 100sma ( dotted ) Prior to this, I have no signal to trade, neither from my MA positioning, nor from any of the candles. What I get though as the price reaches just below the 100sma is a pretty long northerly stalk, followed by a shhooting star, and this, just beneath a big MA, with momentum on my side, is a powerful signal to sell, and would have produced a great trade here with no pullback. You can however wait for a bit more confirmation, which is what I usually do, and which is why I like the extra information of the smaller time frames. Sticking with this 1m TF though, an equally good, though lower down entry, would have been as soon as the first negative candle closed below the 20ema, which you can see clearly marked by the arrow.

A trade, taken following a pullback, with momentum on your side, just beneath a major moving average - the highest probability trade in the book
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #753
  • Feb 16, 2016 7:51am Feb 16, 2016 7:51am
Inserted Video


Just listened to the latest Gerald Celente report, and as usual it's entertaining as well as informative.
  • #754
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:09am Feb 16, 2016 8:09am
[quote=strongtrader;8756607]{quote} BUT if you have a bias you cannot see anymore the scheme....

and if you cannot see the scheme then you cannot have bias. We can go round and round.

I have a bias when I can see the scheme. When I cannot see the scheme I have no bias and I do not trade. The scheme changes not only after entry, it changes with every second, but the scheme I see prior to and when entering a trade is enough for me to risk my money in the uncertainty that comes immediately after. This is the hurdle fearful traders have to learn to manage - the certainty of the uncertainty which is magnified a thousand times over in the markets compared with many other things we do in life. It is, or should be, a well managed leap into the dark, one which, taken consistently, and following a rigorously pre-determined trading plan, will lead to profitability.
  • #755
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:18am Feb 16, 2016 8:18am
Quoting Islander
Thanks Medici for reminding me to use B / S Stops for entries
WTG And that fake-out looked even nicer on a tick chart
  • #756
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:50am Feb 16, 2016 8:50am
Quoting cat
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} BUT if you have a bias you cannot see anymore the scheme.... and if you cannot see the scheme then you cannot have bias. We can go round and round. I have a bias when I can see the scheme. When I cannot see the scheme I have no bias and I do not trade. The scheme changes not only after entry, it changes with every second, but the scheme I see prior to and when entering a trade is enough for me to risk my money in the uncertainty that comes immediately after. This is the hurdle fearful traders have to learn to
...
you are no more getting the point now, never mind.
I will end it here but for those who are willing to understand, in today discussion there is a lot of food for thoughts
  • #757
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:00am Feb 16, 2016 9:00am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote}{quote} you are no more getting the point now, never mind. I will end it here but for those who are willing to understand, in today discussion there is a lot of food for thoughts
I get what Cat is saying, and I agree, but I don't understand your point to the extent that it differs.
  • #758
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:08am Feb 16, 2016 9:08am
Quoting cat
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} BUT if you have a bias you cannot see anymore the scheme.... and if you cannot see the scheme then you cannot have bias. We can go round and round. I have a bias when I can see the scheme. When I cannot see the scheme I have no bias and I do not trade. The scheme changes not only after entry, it changes with every second, but the scheme I see prior to and when entering a trade is enough for me to risk my money in the uncertainty that comes immediately after. This is the hurdle fearful traders have to learn to
...
Awesome description ! That's trading right at the eye of the storm that I refer to earlier. Unfortunately, many traders are full of fear right at this juncture which causes them to freeze up and makes them miss good trading opportunities when this window is open for brief moments.
  • #759
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:17am Feb 16, 2016 9:17am
Quoting skyway
{quote}{quote} Awesome description ! That's trading right at the eye of the storm that I refer to earlier. Unfortunately, many traders are full of fear right at this juncture which causes them to freeze up and makes them miss good trading opportunities when this window is open for brief moments.
Very important point
  • #760
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:18am Feb 16, 2016 9:18am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote}{quote} you are no more getting the point now, never mind. I will end it here but for those who are willing to understand, in today discussion there is a lot of food for thoughts
What is the point I am not getting?
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