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  • #721
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:30am Feb 16, 2016 1:30am
Quoting Piquant
I'm new to the term 2B pattern but after going through some threads here on ff and reading through Adam Grimes free course I realised that I was trading variations of those, mostly long trades on 30min. It took me a while to get around spotting those on 30sec charts. At first I wasn't convinced that they were viable as that of higher TFs. But now that I have, I'm struggling with short 2B patterns. So I decided to ask for a help. Here's my attempt. Any thoughts ? The price had been going up since late Tokyo. Then become a range. A Breakout. And a...
It could go up or down at anytime: trade the present, not the future.
I'v read some of your posts, you did find a good starting point, go on your way; do not mimic what others are doing. Take from them the informations and clues they give you but then use your mind to build your own method.
  • #722
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:41am Feb 16, 2016 1:41am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Well here is the point: the perception of risk. Once you have developed a good understanding on how market works, you know that the informations you get from a higher TF are more accurate and reliable than those you get from a lower one, and there is a specific reason for that: so is it safer to have very tight SL with very unreliable informations or is it safer a wider SL with reliable informations? I'll repeat it again: the mind that brings you to trading is not the mind that will make you to succeed.
I'd question that. The inaccuracy of any forecast increases with the length of the forecasting period. Short-term price swings are easier to predict, in my experience.
  • #723
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:43am Feb 16, 2016 1:43am
One more word about trading small time frames, because I know that the textbook advice for new traders is to avoid them, so probably, most do. I can only offer my own advice here based on my own experience, starting off in this business, without a clue what I was doing initially. I read books, looked for all the advice I could find online, pretty much as we all do. I didn't have much time on my hands as I was working 12 hour days, sometimes more, but as I was self-employed, my hours were irregular, and so this gave me slots here and there where I could study the markets. I looked at all the different time frames from Daily down, and soon realized that if I was going to practice in the time I had available, then the bigger time frames were going to be no good for me at all - I just didn't have the spare time to sit waiting for the market to give me trading opportunities. On the small time frames however, and I started watching the 1 minute, which at first seemed ridiculously small, I soon came to thew conclusion that it was in fact no different to any other time frame, whether it be the Daily or the hourly, you just had to have a system to trade it with, which for me turned out to be moving averages which I didn't use to begin with, for the sole reason that I didn't know which ones to use or how to read them.

To cut a long story short, I stuck with small time frames, working down to the smallest I use currently which is 5 secs, entering most, but not all of my trades on it, and discarding it as soon as I have done so, turning to the bigger frames to plot my exits.

What the smaller time frames gave me was plenty of practice, and I'm sure this will be of interest to those of you who, like me at the beginning of my journey, had a job, and was only able to fit my study of the markets and my trading around my daily life. If I had a spare hour or two during the day, I could practice trading on my demo account, perhaps getting four or five trades in whereas on a 15 min chart I'd have been staring at the screen doing not a lot.

This was the beauty of small time frames for me - it gave me plenty of trades, and the best way to learn how to trade is through trial and error. Now, quite a few years down the line, I would recommend 1 min and smaller to anyone, especially those who have little time to trade. Are they harder to trade? I don't think so. If you have a system that gives you winning trades on the hourly, then you can easily fit this system to the 1m and smaller., it's just a question of using a proportionate stop loss and exit level.

ps - One more thing - the amount of ' noise ' on the small tfs. Firstly, when there is a lot of noise, I don't trade anyway, as trades have to be clean for me. Also however, the reason I use moving averages is that they give structure, providing parameters where often there are none.
  • #724
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:44am Feb 16, 2016 1:44am
Quoting Piquant
I'm new to the term 2B pattern but after going through some threads here on ff and reading through Adam Grimes free course I realised that I was trading variations of those, mostly long trades on 30min. It took me a while to get around spotting those on 30sec charts. At first I wasn't convinced that they were viable as that of higher TFs. But now that I have, I'm struggling with short 2B patterns. So I decided to ask for a help. Here's my attempt. Any thoughts ? The price had been going up since late Tokyo. Then become a range. A Breakout. And a...
Well spotted What asset is that?
  • #725
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:47am Feb 16, 2016 1:47am
Quoting medici
{quote} I'd question that. The inaccuracy of any forecast increases with the length of the forecasting period. Short-term price swings are easier to predict, in my experience.
I agree and my personal research showed that to be true.

Quoting cat
One more word about trading small time frames, because I know that the textbook advice for new traders is to avoid them, so probably, most do. I can only offer my own advice here based on my own experience, starting off in this business, without a clue what I was doing initially. I read books, looked for all the advice I could find online, pretty much as we all do. I didn't have much time on my hands as I was working 12 hour days, sometimes more, but as I was self-employed, my hours were irregular, and so this gave me slots here and there where...
You said everything there is to say about the short TFs. I will like to highlight this point to go with short TF trading -

"If you have a system that gives you winning trades on the hourly, then you can easily fit this system to the 1m and smaller., it's just a question of using a proportionate stop loss and exit level."
  • #726
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:51am Feb 16, 2016 1:51am
Quoting skyway
{quote} I agree and my personal research showed that to be true. {quote} You said everything there is to say about the short TFs.
Which sounds like a polite way to say 'enough is enough'!

Good luck today all!
  • #727
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:07am Feb 16, 2016 2:07am
Quoting cat
{quote} Which sounds like a polite way to say 'enough is enough'! Good luck today all!
Lol....what I meant was that your post covered a large aspect of short TF trading for readers to see the positives within, this sharing of experience comes from traders who operate in this minuscule TF.
  • #728
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:08am Feb 16, 2016 2:08am
Medici
I'd question that. The inaccuracy of any forecast increases with the length of the forecasting period. Short-term price swings are easier to predict..........
Here is another crucial point: are you sure is it really a matter of forecasting?


Cat
One more word about trading small time frames...........
I understand your point and you said something important: to make it short your reference chart is not the smallest one.

There is also a second sentence very important: you said each TF is the same to the others, and it is right but not completely: we can say the market is always the same, or we can say that any pair or cross is the same, but you know there are differences from market to market, from pair/cross to pair/cross: each one has its own specifics; the same is for TF's.

I have understood which is the basic of your method and there is nothing wrong with it.
But the most important part of your message to newbies has been left between the lines and it can be easely misunderstood or unseen; just this.
  • #729
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:12am Feb 16, 2016 2:12am
Quoting strongtrader
Here is another crucial point: are you sure is it really a matter of forecasting?
A successful trading record is evidence of forecasting, even though you may not think of it as such.
  • #730
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:19am Feb 16, 2016 2:19am
Quoting skyway
{quote} Lol....what I meant was that your post covered a large aspect of short TF trading for readers to see the positives within, this sharing of experience comes from traders who operate in this minuscule TF.
I know
  • #731
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:25am Feb 16, 2016 2:25am
[quote=strongtrader;8756073]Medici : we can say the market is always the same, or we can say that any pair or cross is the same, but you know there are differences from market to market, from pair/cross to pair/cross: each one has its own specifics; the same is for TF's.


Agreed, and time spent studying all time frames should clarify these.
  • #732
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:27am Feb 16, 2016 2:27am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} It could go up or down at anytime: trade the present, not the future. I'v read some of your posts, you did find a good starting point, go on your way; do not mimic what others are doing. Take from them the informations and clues they give you but then use your mind to build your own method.
I was guilty of switching systems especially in the early phase. At first I thought something was wrong with me. You know what people say. They tell you, you have to stick with one otherwise you won't see any concrete result.

But later down the road I realised that I didn't know enough. How are you going to be successful in a dynamic market such as FX when the best you can do is one trick. If all I have is one trick and I'm against a market that has many different faces. The chances are I'm going to see what I want to see. You have to have few tricks under sleeve to play the field. All of this is possible if you put in the effort. So I sympathize with your post 100%.

2b is something that I have seen many times but never really traded (the shorts). The pattern speaks to me, I'm familiar with taking the longs. But I was struggling with shorts even before I moved down TF. So I figured this was it. Thank you for your post.
...
  • #733
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:30am Feb 16, 2016 2:30am
Quoting medici
{quote} Well spotted What asset is that?
Looks like I'm getting the hang of this.
Thanks ! Medici
It's EURAUD
...
  • #734
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:58am Feb 16, 2016 2:58am
Quoting medici
{quote} A successful trading record is evidence of forecasting, even though you may not think of it as such.
well, I trade what I see in the present; forecasting is not part of my trading at all, I do not ever ask myself what will happen.
No one can know the future unless it has a crystal ball
  • #735
  • Feb 16, 2016 3:10am Feb 16, 2016 3:10am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} well, I trade what I see in the present; forecasting is not part of my trading at all, I do not ever ask myself what will happen. No one can know the future unless it has a crystal ball
But surely when you pull up your charts in the morning you have an idea of where you think the price will go? That surely is forecasting. The same can be said for exits - you have to have an idea of where you think the price will go, and this is based on forecasting, based upon what you see in the present
  • #736
  • Edited 3:51am Feb 16, 2016 3:34am | Edited 3:51am
Rather than time frames, what about range charts?

I use 4 range overlayed with heiken ashi.

Here's the fast move that developed from 8:59am London time. Small timeframes or in my case range charts can in my opinion clearly identify money flow or order flow.

Chart attached shows three extremely clear setups and trades taken.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: range.jpg Size: 180 KB


edit: by the way I was short got stopped in that spike upwards for -10, and two earlier trades were also short trades that were also stopped out for b/e
  • #737
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:01am Feb 16, 2016 4:01am
Quoting Sakk
Rather than time frames, what about range charts? I use 4 range overlayed with heiken ashi. Here's the fast move that developed from 8:59am London time. Small timeframes or in my case range charts can in my opinion clearly identify money flow or order flow. Chart attached shows three extremely clear setups and trades taken. {image} edit: by the way I was short got stopped in that spike upwards for -10, and two earlier trades were also short trades that were also stopped out for b/e
Brilliant Sakk, for me that's the way to trade small time frames right there. Your first entry is for me the hardest, as it comes right after that vicious spike which caught me out, and the price was as yet not in any sort of short term trend. The second and third though are great entries, a little too late for me, but they are taken with momentum on their side following a small pullback. These are high probability trades, and these are the types of trades I believe traders reading this thread should be working on.

Since your chart above, there has been another great short opportunity, the price pulling back up to my 20 second 200ema before putting in a lower high and rolling over down to the central pivot.

  • #738
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:17am Feb 16, 2016 4:17am
Quoting cat
{quote} Since your chart above, there has been another great short opportunity, the price pulling back up to my 20 second 200ema before putting in a lower high and rolling over down to the central pivot.
Thanks Cat.

And here's the short setup you just mentioned and how I saw it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LH.jpg Size: 182 KB
  • #739
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:22am Feb 16, 2016 4:22am
Quoting Sakk
{quote} Thanks Cat. And here's the short setup you just mentioned and how I saw it. {image}
Yeah way to go!! THAT'S the way to trade in my book
  • #740
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:23am Feb 16, 2016 4:23am
Quoting cat
{quote} But surely when you pull up your charts in the morning you have an idea of where you think the price will go? That surely is forecasting. The same can be said for exits - you have to have an idea of where you think the price will go, and this is based on forecasting, based upon what you see in the present
Hmmmmm.....i'm afraid there is a bit of confusion about the difference between forecasting the future and knowing what is going to happen.
Thinking where price will go means you are creating a bias in your mind; understanding what is happening in the present moment allows you to know what is going to happen in the very next, meaning next 2 or 3 price bars.
Said that I do not have any kind of bias about what price will do, and I do not want to have it, for it makes you unable to see what is happening NOW, but I do have a clear idea of what is going to happen in the very next.
It is similar to driving a car: you see a piece of the road in fron of you and you focus on that piece until you will see another piece and so on; you never think to what you will find 3 miles or more further, don't you?
The difference is very tight but the consequencies are so huge.
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