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  • #12,041
  • Feb 11, 2016 2:21pm Feb 11, 2016 2:21pm
I wasn't gonna do a weekly scalp, but I have finger on trigger for some Mar SPY bull put credit spreads, looking at $172/$168 for 80c...will see if it fills
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,042
  • Feb 11, 2016 2:42pm Feb 11, 2016 2:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} SPY hit a big order there at $181.20 - was that you Cecil?
if it doesn't finish above 185 now then I'll buy puts for tomorrows expiration maybe 181
  • #12,043
  • Feb 11, 2016 2:47pm Feb 11, 2016 2:47pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
if it doesn't finish above 185 now then I'll buy puts for tomorrows expiration maybe 181
it's about time for a bounce. JY did lunch with some of the Congressmen, who have IRA's just like the rest of us....enough, they said....we'll see.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,044
  • Feb 11, 2016 2:47pm Feb 11, 2016 2:47pm
Quoting The Fool
I wasn't gonna do a weekly scalp, but I have finger on trigger for some Mar SPY bull put credit spreads, looking at $172/$168 for 80c...will see if it fills
I was a few minutes late for this....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,045
  • Feb 11, 2016 9:56pm Feb 11, 2016 9:56pm
IWM Big Kahuna, let's rally into March
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-11_1949IWMBK.png Size: 86 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,046
  • Feb 12, 2016 12:20am Feb 12, 2016 12:20am
polar vortex ....aw yeah...right now, eastside USA.........can UNG catch a ride to $8+...? Feb4 $8 calls are <10c......maybe a little help for crude, tooo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,047
  • Feb 12, 2016 2:49pm Feb 12, 2016 2:49pm
Quoting The Fool
polar vortex ....aw yeah...right now, eastside USA.........can UNG catch a ride to $8+...? Feb4 $8 calls are <10c......maybe a little help for crude, tooo
http://www.inquisitr.com/2789793/pol...-this-weekend/

trying to buy 2/26 UNG $8 calls for 6c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,048
  • Feb 12, 2016 3:02pm Feb 12, 2016 3:02pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to buy 2/26 UNG $8 calls for 6c
filled for 7c.....also filled a IWM Mar/Mar5 $108 call calendar for 5c....markets all but forgotten March FOMC rate hike potential, just need oil to come along for a nice risk rally to welcome Spring....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,049
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:04pm Feb 12, 2016 7:04pm
Quoting The Fool
Hello peeps, I am spread very thin these days so not much time to spend blogging. Just trying to stay calm and riding out some dicey trades. Wonder if wti will give us a double bottom down at $27.5x? Watching jitters in the credit space and that along with crude crashing is quite ominous. Sad that I had not positioned for market slide, but my focus has been spotty. Now just staying alive. Hope ya'll have been capitalizing. I'm eyeing Feb opex & fingers crossed for a bit of a rally and UVXY blowing off steam & falling sub $40, my best chance for...
In the same boat, TF, rowing sightly against the current in places. Didn't want to go all nuts here one way or the other, so I've just been sprinkling things on here and there -- mostly index stuff, a few earnings, nothing to get horribly excited about. Just waiting for the Feb plays to play out here one way or the other, so I can tell how much turd I have to roll/work off/massage, so I can turn my attention to March ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,050
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:12pm Feb 12, 2016 7:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://www.inquisitr.com/2789793/pol...-this-weekend/ trying to buy 2/26 UNG $8 calls for 6c
F'in UNG -- so close to being called away at $8, only to have price retreat to sub-7.50 with 7 days to go until expiry. Oh, well, lather, rinse repeat on the short call, which I sold for a .41 credit before price went from +8 to 7.20 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,051
  • Feb 13, 2016 12:23am Feb 13, 2016 12:23am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
F'in UNG -- ... .
long natgas a Fool's errand - I see that deep freeze forecast for the East for the weekend, but will be gone by Tuesday, prolly not enough to scare up a rally...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,052
  • Feb 14, 2016 4:21am Feb 14, 2016 4:21am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} long natgas a Fool's errand - I see that deep freeze forecast for the East for the weekend, but will be gone by Tuesday, prolly not enough to scare up a rally...
brrrr...... 10 below in Boston now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,053
  • Feb 14, 2016 9:33am Feb 14, 2016 9:33am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} long natgas a Fool's errand - I see that deep freeze forecast for the East for the weekend, but will be gone by Tuesday, prolly not enough to scare up a rally...
its volatility needs to be re set, just see sideways for a while on UNG
  • #12,054
  • Feb 14, 2016 11:08am Feb 14, 2016 11:08am
Quoting Cecil Gee
its volatility needs to be re set, just see sideways for a while on UNG
huge oversupply in the USA and that is cut off from world market - that will change as US natgas liquifaction plants come online and LNG gets exported
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,055
  • Feb 14, 2016 12:54pm Feb 14, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} huge oversupply in the USA and that is cut off from world market - that will change as US natgas liquifaction plants come online and LNG gets exported
I'll just have to work that covered call until the cows come home ... . Problems occur, however, when you can't get squat for premium at or above your cost basis ... . Mine's around $7.00/share, so I'm still good, but if this is the "seasonal peak," $7.00/share cost basis ain't gonna cut it ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,056
  • Feb 14, 2016 1:02pm Feb 14, 2016 1:02pm
I dipped my foot a little bit too early on USO (on the break of the 2009 low at ~32.70 WTI). I considered taking on additional shares here, but decided to go with a cheaper alternative:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Work it like a covered call, leaving the long option untouched as you roll the shortie for additional credit. Take off the entire thing when the credits received for the shortie rolling exceed the debit paid by some measure or run the thing until near expiration of the long ... . Gives me some flexibility for USO price to flop all over the place from here until the end of the year ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,057
  • Feb 14, 2016 1:04pm Feb 14, 2016 1:04pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} brrrr...... 10 below in Boston now....
Been 20 degrees below normal here for the past several days, but back to normal, normal plus next week ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,058
  • Feb 15, 2016 4:15pm Feb 15, 2016 4:15pm
I need UVXY to open with a nice $5-10 gap down, then crash another $10-15 for the short week. Need a steady rally for the SnP to do it, but it can - witness week of 9/14/15, when it ranged down $64 to $35.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,059
  • Feb 15, 2016 11:50pm Feb 15, 2016 11:50pm
Quoting The Fool
I need UVXY to open with a nice $5-10 gap down, then crash another $10-15 for the short week. Need a steady rally for the SnP to do it, but it can - witness week of 9/14/15, when it ranged down $64 to $35.....
Same boat on VXX long put verts, this, next Fri's expiration ... . Got 'em cheap; knew they were somewhat lottery, so no sweat, but would prefer a big payday, naturally.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,060
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:10am Feb 16, 2016 1:10am
well, short vol should be a money trade if you get it on with enough time, but no guarantees......... If we do get a nice deep collapse, I will be shopping wide call flys in UVXY again, out April or further....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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