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  • #661
  • Feb 11, 2016 8:27am Feb 11, 2016 8:27am
Quoting Atokys
I'll just leave this here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM
A classic All trading knowledge you need is encapsulated in Country & Western songs
  • #662
  • Feb 11, 2016 8:58am Feb 11, 2016 8:58am
Quoting medici
{quote}........
you will have to do your own research
And different markets behave differently, so focus on one asset at a time.
And these are two great truth!
  • #663
  • Feb 11, 2016 7:33pm Feb 11, 2016 7:33pm
Quoting strongtrader
nice songs Medici..... Pulke Very interesting observation. Can you please elaborate on each point you made, and maybe give some tips? Piquant I can recognise a trend, reversal and a range when I see one. But I don't think I have studied accumulation much at all. I'm doing my homework now on the subject. But I would appreciate if you explained a bit more They already are good tips and material for thoughts: going deeper on each point would mean to go public with what I discovered in 5 years of very hard work, and I won't ever do it; there literaly...
Quoting medici
{quote} I would suggest that you take a look at the book by Adam Grimes, mentioned many times here. The first five chapters will give you a thorough introduction to all these topics. Then the bad news is...based on that, you will have to do your own research And different markets behave differently, so focus on one asset at a time.
Sure I totally understand what you're saying.
I just wanted a simple explanation on accumulation. I wanted to see different point of view, if there was any.

I'll try nevertheless good advise Strongtrader
Thanks Medici for the recommendation.
...
  • #664
  • Feb 12, 2016 12:51am Feb 12, 2016 12:51am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} {quote} Sure I totally understand what you're saying. I just wanted a simple explanation on accumulation. I wanted to see different point of view, if there was any. I'll try nevertheless good advise Strongtrader Thanks Medici for the recommendation.
Accumulation and distribution, compression and expansion, there is nothing complicated over here,
But they are a result, the effect of something else; you need to find the source.
  • #665
  • Feb 12, 2016 1:02am Feb 12, 2016 1:02am
About the differences between an uptrend and a downtrend: I think it is influenced by the kind of current market [bearish or bullish].
In the market right now I find that uptrends are less reliable and run out of fuel quicker while downtrends are stronger and longer.

Any thoughts???

Also-

Is anyone here a swing trader?

I would like to enter 1 or 2 position a week and not have to open and close multiple positions. Does anyone know how I can learn to do that successfully? online courses perhaps? teachers??????
  • #666
  • Feb 12, 2016 1:14am Feb 12, 2016 1:14am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Accumulation and distribution, compression and expansion, there is nothing complicated over here, But they are a result, the effect of something else; you need to find the source.
I'm on it
...
  • #667
  • Feb 12, 2016 1:23am Feb 12, 2016 1:23am
Quoting pulke
About the differences between an uptrend and a downtrend: I think it is influenced by the kind of current market [bearish or bullish]. In the market right now I find that uptrends are less reliable and run out of fuel quicker while downtrends are stronger and longer. Any thoughts??? Also- Is anyone here a swing trader? I would like to enter 1 or 2 position a week and not have to open and close multiple positions. Does anyone know how I can learn to do that successfully? online courses perhaps? teachers??????
look, you are describing the results again.
If you want to learn how to trade, first of all you should stop trading: that's right, you are reading well; thereafter you should spend a lot of time analysing your charts, observing how price moves.
Don't try to run even before knowing how to walk.
  • #668
  • Feb 12, 2016 1:29am Feb 12, 2016 1:29am
Quoting cat
{quote} I couldn't have put it better, so I won't try.
Thank you I am glad that we are at least three who are in agreement on the views expressed by Strongtrader and myself. It seems like experience and independent research has taught us the same lessons.

As the original question was about mechanical trading, I thought the following interview could be of value for those entertaining such interests.

It is an interview with a quantitative portfolio manager describing the research and development process behind automated strategies:

https://www.quandl.com/blog/intervie...quant-part-one

I'll post part two when it becomes available.
  • #669
  • Edited 5:09am Feb 12, 2016 1:37am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting pulke
Is anyone here a swing trader? I would like to enter 1 or 2 position a week and not have to open and close multiple positions. Does anyone know how I can learn to do that successfully? online courses perhaps? teachers??????
You ask what the market should do for you, but maybe a better question would be what the market wants from you?

It is possible to trade the bigger swings, but it may not fit your requirements. Maybe you still need to watch the market more than you hope for? Maybe it is better time management, and business sense, to learn to daytrade and keep it at 10-20 hours a month? Do you know?
  • #670
  • Edited 7:17am Feb 12, 2016 3:40am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting medici
{quote} Thank you I am glad that we are at least three who are in agreement on the views expressed by Strongtrader and myself. It seems like experience and independent research has taught us the same lessons. As the original question was about mechanical trading, I thought the following interview could be of value for those entertaining such interests. It is an interview with a quantitative portfolio manager describing the research and development process behind automated strategies: https://www.quandl.com/blog/intervie...quant-part-one...
Thanks for that medici, I'll watch it this weekend.
This what i always try to impress upon traders with less experience of the markets than you and I, though I think you have more than I do, and that is that the lessons we do learn can come only from experience, they cannot come through a trading course or manual, that there are no short cuts in this business even though so many people continually look for them. Traders out there who are frustrated because they still fail to make money even after two of three years of trading need not feel depressed or dejected because in reality they are probably only 50%, if that, of the way towards gaining the knowledge and experience necessary to make something as difficult as trading the markets into a full time profession. Few people realize this or even want to accept it, somehow believing that they are the exception to the rule, and though I dare say there are people out there making good money consistently in less than three years, I would say they are few and far between - there is just too much to learn for that to be realistic. With time, those who stay the course evolve into the people they need to become to be successful traders, not people who win all the time, but people who have adapted fully to the requirements of the market, with all its vicissitudes and uncertainty, just like life in many ways, but without life's forgiving nature for those who are naive and unprepared.
  • #671
  • Feb 12, 2016 5:06am Feb 12, 2016 5:06am
Quoting Piquant
I just wanted a simple explanation on accumulation.
Are you sure there is a simple explanation? Maybe it's simple only after diligent study and plenty of market experience?

But for your benefit DAX delivered a very good example of accumulation this morning See chart.

As evident, there are very few opportunities to enter, set the stop at BE after 10 points and then wait for 30+, as some people like to do. Stop-out at BE would be the rule. And if you expect a breakout upwards sooner or later, well.... As Jesse Livermore said - the market is designed to fool most people most of the time.

So what is going on in this chart? For that, an understanding of market microstructure is helpful (see attachment for a brief intro).

As a home-based trader one may, with such understanding, hypothesise about various scenarios as to what is going on. Briefly put, those who move the market realise that it's not going to go much lower for a week or two, so they are buying into the last remaining supply - that's a guess.

In any case, the chart sends a clear message about accumulation - slight imbalance between supply and demand, but not much, driving the market higher at slow pace. And after having watched these scenarios repeat themselves for some time, you know what to expect, what the setups are, etc. Totally different from a trending day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Microstructure stock market.pdf   247 KB | 630 downloads
  • #672
  • Feb 12, 2016 5:09am Feb 12, 2016 5:09am
Yes, experience cannot be taught, can only be practiced and experience is mandatory; however a professional teaching course will lead the student on the right way showing the path step by step, and this could be a great help and also a big save of time.
If 5 years have been the time it took me to learn, more than a half have gone to understand that what is usually taught means nothing and thereafter to find which was the true path I should follow; and in doing this I understood i needed to change my mind too because none of us is born to be a trader.
I think Cat expressed it very well: ".....With time, those who stay the course, evolve into the people they need to be in order to be successful traders, not someone who wins all the time, but someone who has adapted fully to the requirements of the market, with all its vicissitudes and uncertainty....."
Those kinds of courses are not easy to find and might be not affordable for many people: this is the reason I had to make it all by myself.
  • #673
  • Feb 12, 2016 6:23am Feb 12, 2016 6:23am
Quoting medici
{quote} As evident, there are very few opportunities to enter, set the stop at BE after 10 points and then wait for 30+, as some people like to do. Stop-out at BE would be the rule. And if you expect a breakout upwards sooner or later, well.... As Jesse Livermore said - the market is designed to fool most people most of the time. {image} {image}
I was going to make a post on todays market action on the DAX but decided not too as it wouldn't be of any benefit to anyone rather more of a cheeky remark but after reading Medici's post I just had too. So here it is........

Who needs a trending market when you can take out 100+ points with 8 long only trades in the first two hours of London Open ;-)

A great trader once said he played "ping pong" in the morning session and was done for the day and it stuck in my head ever since
ps. He might even have posted on this thread
  • #674
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:07am Feb 12, 2016 7:07am
Quoting strongtrader
Yes, I think Cat expressed it very well: ".....With time, those who stay the course,....." Those kinds of courses are not easy to find and might be not affordable for many people: this is the reason I had to make it all by myself.
The course I was referring to was the course of time, not something physical that you can buy, just in case you misunderstood
  • #675
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:09am Feb 12, 2016 7:09am
Quoting medici
{quote} Are you sure there is a simple explanation? Maybe it's simple only after diligent study and plenty of market experience? But for your benefit DAX delivered a very good example of accumulation this morning See chart. As evident, there are very few opportunities to enter, set the stop at BE after 10 points and then wait for 30+, as some people like to do. Stop-out at BE would be the rule. And if you expect a breakout upwards sooner or later, well.... As Jesse Livermore said - the market is designed to fool most people most of the time....
Found one
But as obvious as it is it doesn't reflect the reality much. So therefore can't be much of help but only a guidance.

I hope you don't me drawing on your chart. Below the yellow arrow at a higher low where I used to enter when I used to trade higher TF. But since I moved down to 30sec/1m chart I haven't been as courageous as I was simply because I had no experience trading them on lower TF as 30sec. Thank you for your reply. I appreciate that. Downloaded the pdf material. I'll read it over the weekends.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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...
  • #676
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:12am Feb 12, 2016 7:12am
Quoting cat
{quote} Thanks for that medici, I'll watch it this weekend. This what i always try to impress upon traders with less experience of the markets than you and I, though I think you have more than I do, and that is that the lessons we do learn can come only from experience, they cannot come through a trading course or manual, that there are no short cuts in this business even though so many people continually look for them. Traders out there who are frustrated because they still fail to make money even after two of three years of trading need not feel...
Well said!
...
  • #677
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:14am Feb 12, 2016 7:14am
Quoting Sakk
{quote} Who needs a trending market when you can take out 100+ points with 8 long only trades in the first two hours of London Open ;-) A great trader once said he played "ping pong" in the morning session and was done for the day and it stuck in my head ever since ps. He might even have posted on this thread
...
  • #678
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:32am Feb 12, 2016 7:32am
Quoting Sakk
{quote} I was going to make a post on todays market action on the DAX but decided not too as it wouldn't be of any benefit to anyone rather more of a cheeky remark but after reading Medici's post I just had too. So here it is........ Who needs a trending market when you can take out 100+ points with 8 long only trades in the first two hours of London Open ;-) A great trader once said he played "ping pong" in the morning session and was done for the day and it stuck in my head ever since ps. He might even have posted on this...
You are right, that doesn't help anyone at all, so please, in future, if you are going to tell people how many pips you are making, how about providing an explanation of how you are doing it for the benefit of everybody, because without it, such posts are pointless and belong to the interactive trading threads.
  • #679
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:42am Feb 12, 2016 7:42am
Quoting Sakk
{quote} I was going to make a post on todays market action on the DAX but decided not too as it wouldn't be of any benefit to anyone rather more of a cheeky remark but after reading Medici's post I just had too. So here it is........ Who needs a trending market when you can take out 100+ points with 8 long only trades in the first two hours of London Open ;-) A great trader once said he played "ping pong" in the morning session and was done for the day and it stuck in my head ever since ps. He might even have posted on this thread ...
Correct!!
Well, the truth relies on the fact that a trader is able to trade on any market conditions; in consolidations you play ping pong, in trends you hold following the trend.
  • #680
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:49am Feb 12, 2016 7:49am
Quoting cat
{quote} The course I was referring to was the course of time, not something physical that you can buy, just in case you misunderstood
Yes, I understood, my post was instead referred to a teaching course indeed; I quoted your statement in relation to the fact that becoming a trader will transform in a new person, with a different mind and this is something can be reached only through experience
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