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  • #1,581
  • Dec 3, 2015 5:53pm Dec 3, 2015 5:53pm
EUR/USD Retail FX Flips Net-Short on Mild ECB Easing Package

The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has a new format on DailyFX.com and the latest SSI readings show that despite the spike in the EUR/USD exchange rate after today's ECB rate decision, the retail crowd has flipped net-short EUR/USD.

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An SSI value of -1.8956 for EUR/USD means that 65% of retail traders are short the pair. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator, that's a strong signal that EUR/USD can go even higher.
  • #1,582
  • Dec 4, 2015 2:04pm Dec 4, 2015 2:04pm
"Goldilocks" US NFPs Keep EUR/USD Steady; Fed Rate Hike a "Lock"

DailyFX currency strategist Christopher Vecchio says, "Mark your calendar for December 16: markets are honing in for the first Federal Reserve rate hike in two weeks after the November US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

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"The data, which was truly a Goldilocks print not too hot, not too cold confirmed recent labor market trends that should keep the Federal Reserve confident enough that the US economy is continuing to heal."
  • #1,583
  • Dec 10, 2015 12:00pm Dec 10, 2015 12:00pm
Forex Sentiment Warns that US Dollar Likely to Continue Lower

A major turn in retail FX positions warns that the US Dollar may lose further against these major counterparts.

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See real time Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) data on the new retail trader Sentiment page on DailyFX.com
  • #1,584
  • Dec 14, 2015 6:50pm Dec 14, 2015 6:50pm
Fed Rate Decision Can Ignite Volatility and Upend Well Established Trends

Chief currency strategist John Kicklighter discusses how the upcoming Fed rate decision has the potential to cause big market moves in his article on DailyFX.com.

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Talking Points

  1. Though there is still some doubt, the market consensus now expects the Fed to hike December 16
  2. Even if a rate hike is realized, the market has priced in far more than what liftoff insinuates
  3. We look at a range of visuals that show why this may be a critical event for the global markets

  • #1,585
  • Dec 15, 2015 3:58pm Dec 15, 2015 3:58pm
Gold Setting the Stage For "Lift-off" Post-FOMC

A couple of different scenarios could unfold following the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

While it is widely expected the Fed will raise rates, what is not so clear is the path the Fed will take after embarking on a tightening cycle.


Gold Daily: Aug '15 - Present
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If the Fed signals an even more gradual pace of rate increases than the market expects, we will likely see an immediate sell-off in the dollar and rise in precious metals.
  • #1,586
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:58am Dec 16, 2015 11:58am
Snapshot of Retail Trader Sentiment Heading into FOMC
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source: The new Sentiment section of DailyFX
  • #1,587
  • Dec 17, 2015 1:08pm Dec 17, 2015 1:08pm
Post-FOMC Sentiment Points to Further US Dollar Strength
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Read quantitative strategist David Rodriguez's full report on DailyFX.com.
  • #1,588
  • Dec 30, 2015 2:28pm Dec 30, 2015 2:28pm
DailyFX Forecasts for the US Dollar, Gold, Equities, Yen, and Oil in 2016

  1. US Dollar: Greenback Looks in Trouble Heading into New Year
  2. International Equities: S&P 500, World Equities at Risk of Major Correction
  3. Gold Price Forecast: Sell-Off May Accelerate as Fed Likely to Hike Rates
  4. Yen Forecast: Fed Rate Hikes and BoJ Action Points to USD/JPY Gains
  5. Oil Price Forecast: No End in Sight for Oil Price Declines


The forecasts above are all discussed today on DailyFX.com

  • #1,589
  • Jan 4, 2016 2:03pm Jan 4, 2016 2:03pm
JPY Strength Materializing as Global Equities Plummet
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  • #1,590
  • Jan 6, 2016 12:18pm Jan 6, 2016 12:18pm
Riksbank Intervention Threat Aims to Lift EUR/SEK Prices

Currency strategist Christopher Vecchio discussion the following in his article today on DailyFX.com:

  1. Riksbank has been threatening intervention for the past several months.
  2. Ability to intervene was codified on Monday with this release.
  3. EUR/SEK move below 9.1000 would greatly raise odds of immediate intervention.

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  • #1,591
  • Jan 8, 2016 11:35am Jan 8, 2016 11:35am
Substantial Shift in Sentiment Post-NFP
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See David Rodriguez's weekly report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) at DailyFX.com
  • #1,592
  • Jan 11, 2016 11:27am Jan 11, 2016 11:27am
CNH rolls surge as China gets more aggressive in deterring speculation

DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez sent me the following alert this morning:

"overnight rollover charges in the USD/CNH have surged as the PBOC has unofficially made it substantially more expensive to hold CNH-short positions. This is consistent with their preference to defend the CNH against speculation, and theres no question that theyre feeling the heat on the surge in the CNH vs CNY spread. (more on that here)"

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Image source: Bloomberg
  • #1,593
  • Jan 20, 2016 5:36pm Jan 20, 2016 5:36pm
from John Kicklighter's Twitter feed:

"Strongest $SPX bearish momentum - spot distance from 200-day DMA - since 2011 tumble."

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  • #1,594
  • Jan 21, 2016 5:28pm Jan 21, 2016 5:28pm
Sentiment Points to Potential Trend Reversal in CAD and Majors
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For David Rodriguez's full report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), visit DailyFX.com
  • #1,595
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:53pm Jan 28, 2016 1:53pm
US Dollar on the Verge of a Major Breakdown

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning
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For David Rodriguez's full report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), visit DailyFX.com[/center]
  • #1,596
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:54pm Feb 3, 2016 12:54pm
US Dollar Breakdown is the Real Deal - Heres Why

A major turn in price and forex trader positions warns that the US Dollar will likely continue lower versus the Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Gold prices. David Rodriguez explains why in his weekly summary of the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) on DailyFX.com:

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  • #1,597
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:02pm Feb 8, 2016 2:02pm
COT-Specs Increase Euro Longs Most Since June 2015

In his weekly report on the Commitments of Traders (COT) data, Jamie Saettele discusses extreme positioning in the Euro.

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Commitments of Traders data are available as an MT4 indicator on FXCMapps.com
  • #1,598
  • Feb 11, 2016 12:42pm Feb 11, 2016 12:42pm
Data Points to S&P 500 Losses and a Gold Price Surge

A massive shift in Gold and S&P 500 sentiment warns that further losses are in store for the US Dollar and global stock markets.

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning
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David Rodriguez discusses the implications of the latest SSI readings for the Euro, Pound, Canadian dollar, Gold, DAX and S&P 500 in his Weekly Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) report on DailyFX.com
  • #1,599
  • Feb 12, 2016 6:26am Feb 12, 2016 6:26am
Quoting Jason Rogers
CNH rolls surge as China gets more aggressive in deterring speculation DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez sent me the following alert this morning: "overnight rollover charges in the USD/CNH have surged as the PBOC has unofficially made it substantially more expensive to hold CNH-short positions. This is consistent with their preference to defend the CNH against speculation, and theres no question that theyre feeling the heat on the surge in the CNH vs CNY spread. (more on that here)" {image} Image...
USD/CNY or USD/CNH ?????
  • #1,600
  • Feb 19, 2016 11:23am Feb 19, 2016 11:23am
Are both the US Dollar and the S&P 500 Worth Buying?

In his Weekly Speculative Sentiment (SSI) Index report, DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez says, "A major turn in retail FX trader positioning warns that the Euro could continue lower, while the S&P 500 finally looks like a buy."

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning
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