Where is the logic behind applying Fibonacci to trading? | Page 8 | Forex Factory

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Where is the logic behind applying Fibonacci to trading?

  • #141
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:43am Feb 10, 2016 6:43am
Quoting trader34
{quote} Just to illustrate a point...the entry you picked could also have come from something as arbitrary as an RSI divergence, as in the picture. Not just RSI, there are other simple oscillators that could have picked it. Not to say your entry was bad, I just question the predictive powers of Fibo over any other tool. I see your PT is at the bottom. Well, with Yellen speaking tonight anything can surely happen, but right now your trade is closer to BE than a profit. Whereas the RSI divergence entry has already reached a theoretical 1:4 RR at the...
Just a quick observation to be made here. Anyone who starts a thread, in an effort to meet your challenge, should be ignored. Seriously, why would anyone take time out of their trading to do this? I've made 80 pips this morning on the GBP/$ using fib retracements. Instead of me showing you how I did it, why don't you pull up a chart and figure out how its done? I don't mean to piss on your leg, but let's be realistic here.
  • #142
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:48am Feb 10, 2016 6:48am
Quoting cat
{quote} They may be vague to you pal, but they're as obvious as a one legged man at an arse kicking part to me, and a good deal more useful.
The metaphor you used here, is actually used to describe something as useless. ie. a one legged man at an arse kicking competition, meaning he would not be very good at it, as he would obviously fall over every time he kicked an arse.

I think you meant it useful to you, Sorry to detract from the discussion.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #143
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:22am Feb 10, 2016 7:22am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} The metaphor you used here, is actually used to describe something as useless. ie. a one legged man at an arse kicking competition, meaning he would not be very good at it, as he would obviously fall over every time he kicked an arse. I think you meant it useful to you, Sorry to detract from the discussion.
haha...yes I know it is, I had a boss once who used to use it with me. Here I used it in a slightly different sense, meaning ' obvious' or ' to stand out ', which a one legged man at an arse kicking party certainly would do. When the guy above said that fib levels are " vague ", when they are anything but - a 38.2% is not somewhere around there, it is right there, on 38.2, they are clear, definable levels which the market, being an aggregate of traders, identifies and reacts to. Quite frankly, his post was total nonsense.
  • #144
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:29am Feb 10, 2016 7:29am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Just a quick observation to be made here. Anyone who starts a thread, in an effort to meet your challenge, should be ignored. Seriously, why would anyone take time out of their trading to do this? I've made 80 pips this morning on the GBP/$ using fib retracements. Instead of me showing you how I did it, why don't you pull up a chart and figure out how its done? I don't mean to piss on your leg, but let's be realistic here.

People are already posting charts (usually retrospectively) to confirm their theories.
What I've suggested is something that would literally take 5 seconds printscreen per chart, then a few moments to post to a thread in a single location with controlled variables.
Hell, one person already offered to skype educate me on Fibs! This would take far longer than my suggestion!

Look, honestly I don't care...trade how you wish, because I certainly will...what i can't abide is absolutes.
I've been doing this long enough to know that when someone tells me they have a predictor of where the price is going after touching an imaginary line, I call bullshit!

As i said in previous post, I can believe some of you may use fibs in conjunction with other principles to give you some reference points for trading. @Tom81 gave a good example of confluence.
But, that was not what was being claimed.
The claim was, that fibs and the golden ratio are universal laws which are "key to traders" and obeyed with 70% or greater reliability as a predictor of PA.
So, in theory when we see a rejection of, say the 61.8 there should be someone who can tell me exactly where the price is going as a final destination.

So, instead of the retrospective confirmation usually spouted...I suggested someone actually predict something using fibs alone if they believe fibs are laws to be obeyed.

I am not actually expecting anyone to do it, but it wold be fun to watch!
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #145
  • Feb 10, 2016 8:56am Feb 10, 2016 8:56am
Where's the logic in continuing this useless thread. Use fibs if they work for you, don't if they don't. It is very easy for each and every person to find out the answer for themselves. End of story.
  • #146
  • Feb 10, 2016 9:42am Feb 10, 2016 9:42am
Quoting cat
Where's the logic in continuing this useless thread. Use fibs if they work for you, don't if they don't. It is very easy for each and every person to find out the answer for themselves. End of story.
It's a negative thread, you learn very little and frankly quite pointless. It will end up where similar threads end up in the bin.
Give it three months after this one has died and another one will pop up.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #147
  • Feb 10, 2016 9:50am Feb 10, 2016 9:50am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} It's a negative thread, you learn very little and frankly quite pointless. It will end up where similar threads end up in the bin. Give it three months after this one has died and another one will pop up.
A thread discussing the benefits of high fibre breakfast cereals would be more interesting and far more useful.
  • #148
  • Feb 12, 2016 6:46am Feb 12, 2016 6:46am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Yep, great entry for you, and I hope you got all of the bounce. Well done!


I was aware of the possible bounce happening, so I closed the trade at 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio. You can't play short USD/CAD if OIL prices start to drop again, because of very strong negative correlation between these two pairs. Fundamentals not technicals move the markets. Technical analysis (fibo included) is just a meassuring tool to get in the market at relatively cheap price.
  • #149
  • Feb 12, 2016 9:48am Feb 12, 2016 9:48am
Quoting Tom81
{quote} Fundamentals not technicals move the markets. Technical analysis (fibo included) is just a meassuring tool to get in the market at relatively cheap price.
I've been preaching this point for years! But well said. Good trading!
  • #150
  • Feb 12, 2016 12:16pm Feb 12, 2016 12:16pm
Fibs include several levels so price is bound to hit one of the levels just based on a random chance. If we place and orbitrare level on our fibs such as 47, the price is bound to retrace to to the level just a it may to 38.2,50, or 61.8. What makes the fibs work thought are the other traders. Everybody aims for 61.8 confluence with other trading tools, so once enough traders are convinced that 61.8 retracement is probable the reversal Wil happen at that level following sufficient accumulation of orders. Self-fulfilling prophecy.
  • #151
  • Feb 12, 2016 3:56pm Feb 12, 2016 3:56pm
Quoting antonb1985
Fibs include several levels so price is bound to hit one of the levels just based on a random chance. If we place and orbitrare level on our fibs such as 47, the price is bound to retrace to to the level just a it may to 38.2,50, or 61.8. What makes the fibs work thought are the other traders. Everybody aims for 61.8 confluence with other trading tools, so once enough traders are convinced that 61.8 retracement is probable the reversal Wil happen at that level following sufficient accumulation of orders. Self-fulfilling prophecy.
No, that's not right. The market's behavior does not depend on fibs, or any other technical analysis or tool. You are completely wrong. The market has a structure, and that structure is a representation of market fundamentals. TA does not drive anything, rather, it is a measure of process, patterns, and decision making. Come on, buddy, think before you post.
  • #152
  • Feb 12, 2016 5:17pm Feb 12, 2016 5:17pm
Hey dum dum,, read my post again because you clearly did it comprehend what I said. Nothing in my post suggested that market is ta dependent, it's driven by supply and demand. A fib level is just a level, nothing more and a retrace is bound to be hit simply because it's there not because market respects those level. It amazes me how many yapping twats troll ff.
  • #153
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:51pm Feb 12, 2016 7:51pm
Quoting antonb1985
What makes the fibs work thought are the other traders. Everybody aims for 61.8 confluence with other trading tools, so once enough traders are convinced that 61.8 retracement is probable the reversal Wil happen at that level following sufficient accumulation of orders. Self-fulfilling prophecy.
Your words. You say "what makes fibs work". Isn't that what you said? "Everybody aims for 61.8". You are clearly stating the market behavior is dependent on the 61.8, right? Orders are accumulating there? Market behavior based on TA? The fib level is just a level? But orders are accumulating there? Isn't that kinda like saying that market behavior is TA dependent? What you should know is that fibs don't work, nor do any of the TA tools. None of those things "work".My point is, none of what you said is true, or correct. And market is not driven by supply and demand. Supply and demand drive current price. The market is driven by fundamentals. And it all creates structure. Like I said before, think before you post.
  • #154
  • Feb 12, 2016 8:03pm Feb 12, 2016 8:03pm
Lol this guy still doesn't get it.
  • #155
  • Feb 13, 2016 7:34am Feb 13, 2016 7:34am
Quoting antonb1985
Lol this guy still doesn't get it.
Again with the stupid comments. Don't try to walk away. Explain your comments. Or admit you don't understand. Don't say random stuff and then walk away. Explain how, in one post, you state the fibs are "self fulfilling prophecy", while in another post your state, "Nothing in my post suggested that market is ta dependent"? Just random bull shit? What exactly don't I get?
  • #156
  • Feb 13, 2016 7:43am Feb 13, 2016 7:43am
Hey guys

I like this song. What do you think /?

Inserted Video
Time hides Nothing
  • #157
  • Feb 13, 2016 8:01am Feb 13, 2016 8:01am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I use fib levels in my trading, and have explained how I use them in my FF journal and in several threads (along with proof that the market is not random, but that's another story). Fibs have no/zero/nada predictive powers. There is nothing magical about them. They are, however, useful tools that can show you how professionals are trading the market, when professionals are trading the market (professional traders know when and when not to trade). For the record, every professional trader on planet earth knows the trading fib level and fib...
Hey man,out of curiosity

can you show an example of how you think professionals are using fibs to trade the market,,''???

Thanks brother
Time hides Nothing
  • #158
  • Feb 13, 2016 8:02am Feb 13, 2016 8:02am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Your words. You say "what makes fibs work". Isn't that what you said? "Everybody aims for 61.8". You are clearly stating the market behavior is dependent on the 61.8, right? Orders are accumulating there? Market behavior based on TA? The fib level is just a level? But orders are accumulating there? Isn't that kinda like saying that market behavior is TA dependent? What you should know is that fibs don't work, nor do any of the TA tools. None of those things "work".My point is, none of what you said is true, or correct. And market is not...
lol... hey ,,

Show us your fibs
Time hides Nothing
  • #159
  • Feb 13, 2016 9:09am Feb 13, 2016 9:09am
Here you go, CindyXXX. This is from a professional trader's long-range analysis of structure, with much of the TA removed but fibs remain. This is carried down on other charts to the 4H, 1H and trading chart for entry/exit (10M). Glad you asked, and have a good weekend.
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  • #160
  • Feb 13, 2016 9:43am Feb 13, 2016 9:43am
Cindy, before I run out for the day, here is one more. Structure may be falling apart on this one, or may not, so some professional traders might be holding long run trades open, while avoiding any short-term decisions/trades. Might know next week. Fibs help you see what the banks are thinking/doing, but hold no predictive power. Supply and demand is not building or diminishing because these levels exist. It's because a lot of people haven't figured out what to do yet.
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