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  • #601
  • Feb 7, 2016 9:44am Feb 7, 2016 9:44am
Keltner and coppock ? Cannot find them on MT4 ?
I suppose I am discretionary but thats just me.
Having said that I am always willing to look at other approaches and will take a look. Good thread for discussion here chaps -well done.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #602
  • Feb 7, 2016 10:27am Feb 7, 2016 10:27am
Quoting medici
{quote} Good stuff Exactly what I had hoped people to arrive at. As skyway put it, this is the "end-game" of trading - researching and developing your own system. And thank you Sakk for coming out of hiding The 2B way is a high-probability approach to things For the purposes of illustration, I thought I'd sketch a simple approach to this. The idea is to use a SMA100/8ATR Keltner Channel and a Coppock Curve as momentum indicator. Trades are taken from the MA and exited at the channel envelope, or from the envelope and exited...
Nice post. I read "Come into my trading room" 10 years ago. It's a masterpiece. It has a chapter called "5 bullets to a clip" and he introduces 5 indicators that is needed to be a successful trader. They are: moving averages, envelopes, MACD, MACD histogram, and Force Index (he is also the developer of Force Index).

But I want to say something that most beginners ignore. Indicators are math formulas of past data. Before using any indicator try to at least understand the basic reasoning behind its formula. They always need parameters to work. The tricky part is the magic parameter to be set in the indicator and wait for it to give 100% accurate signals. There is no magic parameter. But there is a solution to optimize indicators to show optimal signals. For example the channels that "medici" talked about is a great indicator which can show extreme areas of market. But as Mr. Elder mentioned in his book you should regularly optimize it in a way that it contains approximately 95% of all prices for the past several months and only highest tops and lowest bottoms stick out of the boundaries.
This is true for all indicators. I don't have time right now but I will post my approach to trading trends with examples as soon as I can. But I do believe if you give a lazy new trader with a "get rich quickly" mindset the best trading system in the world he/she will sooner or later try to filter its false signals, then mix it with other systems, then abandons it entirely with frustration and hate, and start to look for a better system.
  • #603
  • Feb 7, 2016 10:34am Feb 7, 2016 10:34am
Quoting Forexia
....I would say the exit strategy is THE MOST IMPORTANT part of a trading system. .....
ENTRY. exit is directly related to personality....
  • #604
  • Feb 7, 2016 11:52am Feb 7, 2016 11:52am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=544538&page=2

I opened a thread a while back titled ' Were you one of the world's best traders trading demo'?

Obviously it discusses the merits or lack thereof of trading demo as opposed to live. It generated some interesting comments that some people following this thread may find useful.
  • #605
  • Feb 7, 2016 11:53am Feb 7, 2016 11:53am
Quoting turnip15
Keltner and coppock ? Cannot find them on MT4 ? I suppose I am discretionary but thats just me. Having said that I am always willing to look at other approaches and will take a look. Good thread for discussion here chaps -well done.
You're welcome. I found both indicators here on FF... Attached below. STARC Bands is a different name for what I called Keltner Channel. Found an indicator with that name too...
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 STARC Bands.mq4   2 KB | 514 downloads
File Type: mq4 Coppock Curve CCT.mq4   7 KB | 486 downloads
  • #606
  • Feb 7, 2016 11:59am Feb 7, 2016 11:59am
Quoting cat
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=544538&page=2 I opened a thread a while back titled ' Were you one of the world's best traders trading demo'? Obviously it discusses the merits or lack thereof of trading demo as opposed to live. It generated some interesting comments that some people following this thread may find useful.
Good post by you on that thread Reminds me of somebody I taught a profitable system some years ago. The chap back-tested it with encouraging results, demo-traded it for three weeks tripling the account with prudent risk-taking.

Then he decided to open a live a account and deposited £5k to trade with. They were gone in a week!
  • #607
  • Feb 7, 2016 12:08pm Feb 7, 2016 12:08pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Good post by you on that thread Reminds me of somebody I taught a profitable system some years ago. The chap back-tested it with encouraging results, demo-traded it for three weeks tripling the account with prudent risk-taking. Then he decided to open a live a account and deposited 5k to trade with. They were gone in a week!
Actually, demo trading is extremely difficult in my opinion because unless you are extremely disciplined you end up taking trades you would never take on a live account. It is only useful if you treat it exactly like a live account, which in my own experience, is practically impossible. It helped me by showing me what I was capable of achieving, not what I would achieve.
  • #608
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:41pm Feb 7, 2016 3:41pm
OK what is a trend? I think if you see the direction of movement in anything in the world that thing is trending.

How can we humans recognize the direction of movement? it's easy. our eyes compare that moving object with its surrounding objects as points of reference and if there is a substantial difference between them and it is continuously getting higher we call that object a moving object which is moving away from the point of reference.

So in the market whenever we see that price is going somewhere it is a trend. (that's it) If you can not see the direction at the first glance it is not a trend. Of course there are numerous technical tools that show us the trend, but all of them tell you exactly what can be seen with your bare eyes. (our mind can detect a trend very fast)

How to find a trend? it's more a philosophical question than a technical question. let me explain. Suppose you want to go from City A to City E. there are city B, city C, and city D in your way to city E. Something is sure if a car wants to go from City A to City E it has to go through the other cities in its way. Now the question is "how can you tell a car is going to city E just by looking at where it started its journey and its current position in the road?"

You can tell me that its obvious that when a car is going from city C to city B, the probability of it turning back and then going to city E is very low. So it's wiser to bet on those cars which are moving in the direction of A to E. the other point is this: suppose you see a car which has moved from A to B and another car which has moved from A to C. which one is more likely going to city E? it is obvious that the car which is near city C is more likely going to city E than the car who is near city B. So we can say both cars are trending toward the city E. But which one do you bet on? I prefer the second car. because we have more statistical data about it and its direction.

I know it seems a bit complicated but it is not and our mind solve these problems in a fraction of a second subconsciously.

So whenever you see a direction you have a trend. Now its up to you to analyze its quality. the more data which confirms the direction (for example higher lows) the more valid your trend is. However be careful that trends will run out of fuel and stop after a while.

I think up to here you do not need any technical analysis knowledge. Any school girl or boy can say if a price is going up or down by looking at the chart.

How to trade a trend?

this is my approach for trading a down trend:
1- when I find a trend I wait for reversals
2- I check the reversals to be sure that they do not go beyond last Fibonacci retracement line.
3- I check a fast oscillator like CCI or Force Index set to 8 to see if the price is overbought enough to go back or not.
4- I check the candles to see a reversal signal like Pinbar, inside bar, doji, or outside bar. to show me the bulls are getting weak and the bears are controlling the game again.
5- I enter the trade as soon as I see the momentum in the direction of the price for example a lower bar in MACD histogram than the previous bar. (same for Bear Power, Bull Power, and etc) you should play a little bit with it to find the best parameter for each indicator. Or you can use Heiken Ashi candles.
6- I place my stop loss 10 pips ( it should be testes for each pair) above the signal candle.
7- I move my stop to break even when the price moves half of my stop loss distance. (This is completely up to you). then trail it base on swing highs.
8- If I see a divergence or something unusual like a sudden reverse of price I close my trade.

I'll post examples later.
  • #609
  • Feb 7, 2016 5:55pm Feb 7, 2016 5:55pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Actually, demo trading is extremely difficult in my opinion because unless you are extremely disciplined you end up taking trades you would never take on a live account. It is only useful if you treat it exactly like a live account, which in my own experience, is practically impossible. It helped me by showing me what I was capable of achieving, not what I would achieve.
Hello Cat, very good thread this one, I agree with almost all of your posts but this one.
Discipline is one of the basic aspects in trading and is not more difficult than achieving the correct mindset to trading, of which discipline is an important part.
If someone cannot be disciplined trading with a demo account won't be disciplined with a real money account as well and sooner or later will end up blowing his accout, even with a sounding system.
There is no point to use real money during the learning process unless you have money to throw away.
What is always surprising me is that the most part of newbies are willing to throw away their money to trade a real account, despite they have no idea of what they are doing, but they do not ever will to invest their money on their education, which is meant to make them true traders.
At the end each one takes out of market what he wants to take.
  • #610
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:31am Feb 8, 2016 1:31am
[quote=strongtrader;8738263]{quote}. "If someone cannot be disciplined trading with a demo account won't be disciplined with a real money "

Hi Strong, and thanks. I agree with you entirely, but I was saying it is difficult, as anyone will know. Actually, for me demo trading wasn't just about discipline, it was about using it through the learning process, because to trade with real money while you are learning is foolish in the extreme unless you have money to burn. The discipline wasn't an issue for me once I started live trading as demo trading had already highlighted my weaknesses in that area, which is what demo trading is all about - identifying those areas that are liable to sabotage your trading when you go live. Once live, and with a strategy you know works, a whole new challenge opens up, namely the fear factor, ( which also comes under discipline, ie, having the discipline to overcome the fear of losing ) but it is a lot easier to overcome that if you have already doubled your demo account three times over.
  • #611
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:51am Feb 8, 2016 1:51am
GM - as ever, some great posts here

My view is that demo is for learning your platform, researching and setting up your system. Once that's done, then switch to live trading with the broker's minimum size - Real Money IS different to demo - either take our word for that - or loose some money - usually fast!

I research a contract - my last one was the Dax - by analysing and recording every swing on the time frame that I will be trading over the last 100 trading days either by hand in an A4 notebook - or on a spreadsheet. Once done and analysed I have a picture of how price typically moves and when it does so.......very useful

Attached is a chart that I posted on Friday - all trades were given in Real Time in Clive Packham's Dax Room.

As Medici will observe, I've been here before, system-wise........a fast MA with Keltner Type Bands - actually just the standard MT4 MA with the MA's colour set to "None" and an indicator to help with my Trading Rules.....

Discipline, Patience and "A System" ........plus a few thousand of hours of screen time off the right side....

Now for XO.......

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86543&page=488
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: feb5 dax 1m 0922.png Size: 47 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #612
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:30am Feb 8, 2016 2:30am
Fib doubters take note:

Dax has just turned north off of the 61.8% retracement from Friday's low, to the pip, no other indicators present, though I have MA support on the 30m which corresponded. Resistance is currently the 10 m 200ema.
  • #613
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:31am Feb 8, 2016 2:31am
Quoting Islander
GM - as ever, some great posts here My view is that demo is for learning your platform, researching and setting up your system. Once that's done, then switch to live trading with the broker's minimum size - Real Money IS different to demo - either take our word for that - or loose some money - usually fast! I research a contract - my last one was the Dax - by analysing and recording every swing on the time frame that I will be trading over the last 100 trading days either by hand in an A4 notebook - or on a spreadsheet. Once done and analysed...
Hi Islander, good to see you here..your input is very welcome
  • #614
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:35am Feb 8, 2016 2:35am
Quoting cat
{quote} As promised, here's my penultimate trade on Tuesday 2nd. I remember posting on the Carpe Diem Dax/Dow thread in the morning that Tuesdays usually say big price movements, and I wasn't wrong. I've attached two charts, one showing a close up of the candles, and the other showing the whole aspect. I took both entires you see, the lower losing one, and the higher winning trade, off of this 1m chart. My mistake, as always, was immediately apparent once my SL was hit, a SL of 13 which placed it above the Bollinger. This trade was probably a trade...
From what I have noticed (I'm still new to 30sec charts) if price comes down to touch the trend line in your example (50ema on my chart) is usually a sign that the rally cooling down. Price usually bounces off this level before shooting up the last time where your SL got hit. And then came a lower high a second short entry where I most likely would have went short (I can't do any higher than this like you I'm still a noob )

I enjoy this kind of post of yours the most. Keep them up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2016-02-08 at 8.44.16 AM.png Size: 121 KB
...
  • #615
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:25am Feb 8, 2016 3:25am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} From what I have noticed (I'm still new to 30sec charts) if price comes down to touch the trend line in your example (50ema on my chart) is usually a sign that the rally cooling down. Price usually bounces off this level before shooting up the last time where your SL got hit. And then came a lower high a second short entry where I most likely would have went short (I can't do any higher than this like you I'm still a noob ) I enjoy this kind of post of yours the most. Keep them up. {image}
Aha, but remember that the trend line wasn't there when I went short, I drew it in afterwards, in time to take the second trade. And a candle like that one I traded off on the second trade is always worth taking if it comes right beneath a big S&R area, in line with current momentum, because all the other like-minded traders, and there will be a good many, will also hit the sell button when they see it - try to put yourself in the minds of other traders at all times - it helps
  • #616
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:48am Feb 8, 2016 3:48am
Fibo can work as many other indicators, everything depends on how they are used; most of the people is trying to hammer a nail in the wall with a screwdriver.....
I think the biggest difficulty is to arrange a cluster of tools that allows a trader to be no more blind folded: but to reach such a result is necessary to see what is hidden behind charts
  • #617
  • Feb 8, 2016 6:07am Feb 8, 2016 6:07am
Quoting strongtrader
Fibo can work as many other indicators, everything depends on how they are used; most of the people is trying to hammer a nail in the wall with a screwdriver..... I think the biggest difficulty is to arrange a cluster of tools that allows a trader to be no more blind folded: but to reach such a result is necessary to see what is hidden behind charts

Nothing works in isolation as I've said many times, it's all about getting a cluster of indicators/signals to help you determine likely S&R levels. And I know what you mean when you say ' hidden behind charts ', but actually, everything we need to know is all there, we just have to find it, a bit like one of those trees with 15 donkeys hidden inside it.
  • #618
  • Feb 8, 2016 6:38am Feb 8, 2016 6:38am
Quoting cat
{quote} Aha, but remember that the trend line wasn't there when I went short, I drew it in afterwards, in time to take the second trade. And a candle like that one I traded off on the second trade is always worth taking if it comes right beneath a big S&R area, in line with current momentum, because all the other like-minded traders, and there will be a good many, will also hit the sell button when they see it - try to put yourself in the minds of other traders at all times - it helps
I'll take note of that !
...
  • #619
  • Feb 8, 2016 6:56am Feb 8, 2016 6:56am
Quick word about risk, which no one has talked about here on this thread, which is somewhat surprising.

This is pretty personal, but I never risk more than 2% of my account on any one trade, that's it. For some traders that's too low, for others it's too high, but I keep things ticking over nicely with 2%. If I have a bad run, I'll reduce it to 1%, but I never go higher.
  • #620
  • Feb 8, 2016 7:41am Feb 8, 2016 7:41am
Quoting cat
{quote}[/b] Nothing works in isolation as I've said many times, it's all about getting a cluster of indicators/signals to help you determine likely S&R levels. And I know what you mean when you say ' hidden behind charts ', but actually, everything we need to know is all there, we just have to find it, a bit like one of those trees with 15 donkeys hidden inside it.
Correct, and if you can assess price direction around those S/R levels you have something sounding
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