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  • #12,001
  • Feb 5, 2016 4:03pm Feb 5, 2016 4:03pm
I need some short delta somewhere, looks like GLD's the place to go for that:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,002
  • Feb 5, 2016 4:07pm Feb 5, 2016 4:07pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
End to a good week ... . going small and often.
......I, otoh, am in shitty shape, too bullish and attached to trading that way, having to scramble to cover my ass, but I still have a lot of time, some things coming off Feb but much more March and beyond. Equities looking very weak and if USD strengthens and weighs down oil into the $20's again, we could see the carnage continue for a while. Tried to fill march UVXY call flys today but got tired of chasing.

Have a good weekend, ya'll.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,003
  • Feb 5, 2016 4:12pm Feb 5, 2016 4:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ......I, otoh, am in shitty shape, too bullish and attached to trading that way, having to scramble to cover my ass, but I still have a lot of time, some things coming off Feb but much more March and beyond. Equities looking very weak and if USD strengthens and weighs down oil into the $20's again, we could see the carnage continue for a while. Tried to fill march UVXY call flys today but got tired of chasing. Have a good weekend, ya'll.
Got a couple turd piles on myself ... . Broken earnings plays that'll just take time to work out ... . Some I can get back to scratch in short order, some don't succumb to my Jedi mind tricks ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,004
  • Feb 6, 2016 1:13am Feb 6, 2016 1:13am
Credit Suisse at million year lows.....do you see any extreme mispricing in those March calls?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...=yhoo.headline
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,005
  • Feb 6, 2016 1:40am Feb 6, 2016 1:40am
Quoting The Fool
.....do you see any extreme mispricing in those March calls
sure.....lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,006
  • Feb 6, 2016 1:53am Feb 6, 2016 1:53am
DB crash even worse than CS but it does not have the big backwardation that CS does
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,007
  • Feb 8, 2016 7:03am Feb 8, 2016 7:03am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} FXE is poised for that directional play, Next week I'll be putting in a order 9 months out long 110 calls, Fool is right when going long in options timing is everything unlike with spreads where you can trade yourself out if its going against you, Want FXE for $1.80 or under september 2016 expiry


took this last week as above but long at 1.85 not 1.80 as I could not get that price, will leave this until I can get 5x the value
  • #12,008
  • Feb 8, 2016 7:05am Feb 8, 2016 7:05am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} AAPL if it does hit 85 some time soon will be the areas when I look for a bounce in equities in general and a fall back in VIX/TLT
may just get there
  • #12,009
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:42am Feb 8, 2016 10:42am
Quoting StrayDog
In case we visit areas around 1800-1830 soon... I have just bought a few of /ES Feb 1850/1845 put spreads for $1.25 debit. Will buy a few more IF I can get them for $1.00. Also will monitor /ES after FOMC and than decide if I want to sell some call spreads as well, like maybe Feb 1950/1980... (Sell wide, buy narrrow)
That was on Jan 27.

I have closed partially today @ $2.30 ... probably too soon.
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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,010
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:56am Feb 8, 2016 11:56am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} FXY has just traded above $83 now need it to close there or above and if it does then looking for a acceleration up to $86 first and ultimately 90 later in the year translating a quicker drop on the USD/YEN pair CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) -NYSEArca 83.01 {image} 0.94(1.15%) 17:14 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
will see today if it does finally close above 83, then I will look higher.
  • #12,011
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:41pm Feb 8, 2016 10:41pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} That was on Jan 27. I have closed partially today @ $2.30 ... probably too soon. {image}


I was thinking of doing some call spread financed long put spreads, put have missed the boat with this down move ... . As always, timing is everything ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,012
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:49pm Feb 8, 2016 10:49pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I need some short delta somewhere, looks like GLD's the place to go for that: {image}
Course, we touched 1200 today, so it looks like someone's shopping for Valentine's day ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,013
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:54pm Feb 8, 2016 10:54pm
I used to like to do these TLT iron condors as a "bread and butter" trade, but they're only worthwhile if you go with more than 1 contract, 'cuz you don't get much bang for your buying power buck:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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That being said, there's less vol skew in TLT than an index ETF and what there is is skewed to the call side ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,014
  • Feb 9, 2016 10:31am Feb 9, 2016 10:31am
Quoting Cecil Gee
TLT AND FXY are the two new year long term strangles I'm looking to make, just waiting for the longer term IV to come down, hoping to get in sometime next week or at one of the low volatility days next week or near the closing of year end ready for the start of the new year for some strong directional moves in those two mentioned as to me those charts indicate
closed all my TLT positions AT 131.25, worked out better than I thought. Still in FXY and FXE also looking good so far
  • #12,015
  • Feb 9, 2016 1:52pm Feb 9, 2016 1:52pm
Hello peeps,

I am spread very thin these days so not much time to spend blogging. Just trying to stay calm and riding out some dicey trades. Wonder if wti will give us a double bottom down at $27.5x? Watching jitters in the credit space and that along with crude crashing is quite ominous. Sad that I had not positioned for market slide, but my focus has been spotty. Now just staying alive. Hope ya'll have been capitalizing.

I'm eyeing Feb opex & fingers crossed for a bit of a rally and UVXY blowing off steam & falling sub $40, my best chance for a decent February equity boost. Not at all confident...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,016
  • Feb 9, 2016 2:03pm Feb 9, 2016 2:03pm
Quoting The Fool
DB crash even worse than CS but it does not have the big backwardation that CS does
When I am busy & find it hard to manage a lot of short term trades, I will look at some longer term bets: the banks have been hammered but they will likely come back, especially the US banks - I may do some shopping for longer term spreads amongst them - like C, BAC, etc. .....re: the Eurozone big dogs, you know they will not be allowed to fail.......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,017
  • Feb 9, 2016 2:20pm Feb 9, 2016 2:20pm
Quoting The Fool
I'm eyeing Feb opex & fingers crossed for a bit of a rally and UVXY blowing off steam & falling sub $40, my best chance for a decent February equity boost. Not at all confident...
wait, green shoots for /ES - let's go Lemmings, you don't wanna be left behind - buy some NFLX & AAPL, help a brother out....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,018
  • Feb 10, 2016 12:00pm Feb 10, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting The Fool
I'm eyeing Feb opex & fingers crossed for a bit of a rally and UVXY blowing off steam & falling sub $40, my best chance for a decent February equity boost. Not at all confident...
UVXY only been below $40 a few days in the last 6 weeks, we need some fat green weekly candles in the spoos to open up the trap door......its falls can be pretty precipitous, what I need, in truth, I will need $36 or lower by next week to get something decent out of Feb put flys.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,019
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:18pm Feb 10, 2016 1:18pm
new low for wti today, $27.3x......and that in the face of short storage data print......can US equities rally while oil continues to slide?....the answer has been "no" but I wonder when/if that correlation may break? For the time being, though, I'm sure equity bulls would breathe easier if oil will rally......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,020
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:28pm Feb 10, 2016 1:28pm
/CL making new lows... currently @ $27.35
(it is just 15c lower than Jan 20 low... so watching the PA)

Market is stalling... a big hmm... I already have too much trades today (scalping all over the place, /CL included)... watching now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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