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  • #561
  • Feb 4, 2016 3:44pm Feb 4, 2016 3:44pm
Quoting FxClown
{quote} Sorry. I did not mean to alarm my friends. I was remembering famous quite of Bill Shankly about football being more important than 'life and death'. I should have clarified. Have a good evening everyone. Happy trading.
That's a relief, I was about to call the Good Samaritans!
  • #562
  • Feb 4, 2016 4:45pm Feb 4, 2016 4:45pm
A quick late thought before I close down.

The markets are one of the most unforgiving, ruthless environments that we are ever going to expose ourselves to. Whereas in everyday life we can cover up our weaknesses and get away with many of the foolish and irresponsible things that we do, in the markets, these vices are punished instantly and without mercy.

In life, we can expect sympathy from friends or family when things go wrong, a comforting arm around the shoulder, a warm embrace, a soothing chat. but the market gives us none of these - it doesn't care. It has no conscience, no compassion, no heart, and it will strip us of everything we own if we let it without stopping to pay its respects. This is why as traders, we cannot afford to be the people we were when we came into trading, we have to change, face the conditions exposed to us, and adapt or die, metaphorically speaking of course.

If we launch ourselves into the markets unprepared, our weaknesses, inconsistencies, impulsiveness, impatience and general naivety will be immediately seized and exploited in the form of losses by a market that has none of these human frailties. If however we take the time to build our defenses, to understand the market , to learn to move with it rather than against it, to play it on its terms, not ours, then it can be a thing of beauty - benign and life giving - a provider of limitless opportunities to change our lives for the better.
  • #563
  • Feb 4, 2016 8:23pm Feb 4, 2016 8:23pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} I would say the exit strategy is THE MOST IMPORTANT part of a trading system. Without a good exit strategy, everything you did is wasted. With a good strategy, it can salvage a bad entry and turn a potential loss into a winner.
I donīt understand your point, I agree an exit can give you more or less profit if your entry is a winner, but if you entered wrong...exiting earlier or later could give you a lesser or bigger loss...but it can not turn a loss into a winner....at least I am missing something...so, please explain it.
  • #564
  • Edited 12:51am Feb 5, 2016 12:04am | Edited 12:51am
Quoting medici
{quote} Glad you like it I'd like to add a bit to what I said. Here is an excerpt from Jack Schwager's The New Market Wizards: Jack Schwager: Anything to add regarding traits that differentiate winning from losing traders? Charles Faulkner: A final critical characteristic distinguishing winning traders from losing traders relates to what I've termed "operating metaphors." An operating metaphor determines how we view the world, and it shapes our beliefs, actions, and life-styles. Some of the metaphors used by traders to describe the market are...
You're very right in saying that its not universal. Personally I've never seen trading as a war nor something that I need to conquer but more in form of an art, a dance or a painting. It should be effortless and intuitive not forced. Having settled on my dancing partner EURAUD occasionally GJ I'm going over the moves, the nuances , small details in short study my partner in great detail. It takes time to get to know your partner to become in sync with him/her. You just have pick the right one for you.

My thinking is that if its done over a period of time provided you already have some experience just like dancing eventually I'll be able to anticipate the next move of my partner intuitively so that he/she won't step on my feet and ruin the whole show. Ive had it happen many times that I needed a break, I mean my feet . But injuries can't be avoided when you're in the training phase, it's an integral part of learning experience so as long as we learn and grow from them. Someone said few days ago on this thread that a double or a triple top doesn't necessarily mean price is going down immediately that there's a story behind every move which I agree 100%. There's a pattern that tends to repeat itself over and over again. But in the end no other move is exactly the same as with dancing. Trading isn't strictly technical or rational as there're humans behind those charts and pattern formations. No matter how good your technical abilities are I think to succeed one has to be intuitive. Can only be achieved after thousands of hours and practice however gifted you maybe. As with any profession.

But it took me two years to adapt that thinking into trading. I'm still (finally) adjusting. And your post was timely done for me.

Extending on Cats post I think art is also another field besides trading that's beautiful but cruel. To stand out your work has to be original and unique. Even so it doesn't guarantee success. For your work to be recognised by the mass and the pros is mostly dependent on luck (I think). With trading however I think it's less cruel in a sense that once we learn to flow with the market and develop an authentic personal approach odds are in our favour to succeed. Our success isn't entirely (almost) dependent on luck unlike art no matter how original and revolutionary your work maybe if the timing isn't right or if luck isn't on your side your work could easily go unnoticed. I'd like to think we stand a better chance succeeding at trading than artists trying to get their name out there. We really have no excuse not to succeed. Its only my own thinking and I don't necessarily expect everyone should agree or conform.
...
  • #565
  • Feb 5, 2016 12:54am Feb 5, 2016 12:54am
Hi Cat, great thread here. I think that experienced members should have a single place to posit ideas in the hopes that we can help......

Except that it is very likely that we won't.

Why is that? Most traders are men, and men do not like to listen. It's the ego in us all.

So in my view, the first thing a trader has to do is get rid of the ego. It is pure ego that makes us big losses. Pure ego that we try to buy bottoms and sell tops. Pure ego that we over leverage. We want to get rich right now. If I start trading on Monday, I've have my Lambo in a year, the supermodel in two years, and my own jet in three years.

Pure ego. We think there is something new under the sun. Some new trick or idea that no one has thought of. We think we are smarter than the smartest people on earth, all of whom are trying to beat the market.

We then start playing with indicators, then we learn to write our own, some of us. I personally feel that indicators do have their place.

Eventually a few of us will realize that indicators are based on price action, and maybe we should just learn that. But then, we have to define what price action is.

Okay, so now we know what price action is, let's trade! Except we did not know about slippage, swap, leverage, margin, pip values, time of day to trade, day of week to trade, news, spreads, and on it goes............

And still, in the background...is EGO. A big big part of this forum is ego driven.

Just like young drivers do not want to hear about defensive driving, new traders do not want to hear about defensive trading. In the US we are about to have our Super Bowl. They say that defense wins championships. The same is true in trading. Defense makes money.

Is there any newbie, anywhere, that wants to hear the truth? Trading is a slow grind. It takes a long time to learn. Most markets, especially in FX are ranging, and this can be easily proven.

Trading is a business that requires your attention every hour of every day that it is not the weekend or you are sleeping. Your commitment must be total. You should pay at least as much attention to your money as you do your honey. In my view, it should be more. Money draws honey. Remember that, newbie, and keep your focus pristine!

A professional trader should know what to do the second they pull a chart. They should know whether they are going to buy or sell, what they are going to risk, and how long they will wait for the trade to mature. They should know this immediately.

Lastly, be a student of this game. Read as much as you can. Read everything you can. You never know what prerequisite knowledge you need to make something click based on something someone will say to you next year. Read, read, read!

Forex factory is nice in that we have a few posters who will cry and scream about how FX is a scam, but each and every day they come back to the scene of the crime. No, newbie, FX is not a scam. Do your homework, trade properly, and your account will grow.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #566
  • Feb 5, 2016 1:17am Feb 5, 2016 1:17am
Quoting jmn5611
Hi Cat, great thread here. I think that experienced members should have a single place to posit ideas in the hopes that we can help...... Except that it is very likely that we won't. Why is that? Most traders are men, and men do not like to listen. It's the ego in us all.
thanks jmn, wise words indeed....take note all!
  • #567
  • Feb 5, 2016 1:35am Feb 5, 2016 1:35am
http://www.military-history.org/arti...tain-pilot.htm

One more on the trader/fighter pilot theme. ' Sailor ' Malan was the greatest of them all, not a particularly gifted pilot, but a brilliant leader of men and absolutely ruthless in the air. You could do a lot worse if you are looking for inspiration than to look this guy up, because he was the real deal, in every sense of the word, not that any of the others weren't, but Malan achieved more in a shorter time frames than any of them did, and he was never shot down. He never wrote a book, but there is an excellent biography written in the 50s when he was still alive by Oliver Walker, who knew him well. difficult to get hold of now but a fantastic read if you can. The other biography, written by Norman Franks in 1994, ' Sky Tiger ', is also good, and focuses more on his life as a fighter pilot than the earlier one. The most recent biography, from 2012, avoid, it is just a bad hash of the other two.
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  • #568
  • Feb 5, 2016 1:49am Feb 5, 2016 1:49am
Quoting cat
{quote} I agree, but it can be difficult to think like that if you're stuck by a machine in a factory all day. And yes, to trade you need to be ' in the zone ', and you can only do that if you are alone, without extraneous noise, which is why I could never have been a commercial trader in a room full of others, in fact, I cannot imagine anything worse. I'm one of those people who can be extremely sociable when it is required, but I'm happiest, and most comfortable working on my own, doing my own thing, in my own way, in my own time, without anyone...
That is why (as you said ear;ier I think) having a dedicated office is so important. Preferably with an air gap between you and kids/noise. Best investment I ever made. Mine even has a child proof fence (although they are all big enough to rip it off its hinges now).
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #569
  • Feb 5, 2016 1:53am Feb 5, 2016 1:53am
Quoting medici
{quote} There's a fairly well-known trader, Adam Grimes, who also started out in classical music. His book The Art & Science of Technical Analysis: Market Structure, Price Action & Trading Strategies is a good comprehensive introduction to its topics: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Art-Science-...adam+grimes%5D Also, I posted earlier on this thread a seven step process for becoming a profitable trader. Only a suggestion, but you may find it worthwhile...
This guy now also has an excellent web site with a whole bunch of free lessons and systems. Book and site worth a visit.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #570
  • Feb 5, 2016 2:04am Feb 5, 2016 2:04am
Quoting cat
http://www.military-history.org/arti...tain-pilot.htm One more on the trader/fighter pilot theme. ' Sailor ' Malan was the greatest of them all, not a particularly gifted pilot, but a brilliant leader of men and absolutely ruthless in the air. You could do a lot worse if you are looking for inspiration than to look this guy up, because he was the real deal, in every sense of the word, not that any of the others weren't, but Malan achieved more in a shorter time frames than any of them did, and he was never...
Thanks Cat for your endorsement. You get it.

Newbies....do you know who you are in this little video? Do you see Cat, and the rest of the experienced traders?

Tomorrow is NFP........

Inserted Video
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #571
  • Feb 5, 2016 2:10am Feb 5, 2016 2:10am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Thanks Cat for your endorsement. You get it. Newbies....do you know who you are in this little video? Do you see Cat, and the rest of the experienced traders? Tomorrow is NFP........ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szTGXeLk2Jg
Today for us...sleep tight
  • #572
  • Feb 5, 2016 2:13am Feb 5, 2016 2:13am
Quoting jmn5611
Hi Cat, great thread here. I think that experienced members should have a single place to posit ideas in the hopes that we can help......
That post nailed it Jm
  • #573
  • Feb 5, 2016 3:56am Feb 5, 2016 3:56am
Good morning friends,
Just caught up with all the great posts here.

To keep it all in perspective, I'd like to recommend one of my favourite recent reads.

'Tuesdays with Morrie' - an old man, a young man, and life's greatest lesson.
by Mitch Albom


PS
Have a great day.
None the wiser!
  • #574
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:09am Feb 5, 2016 5:09am
Quoting FxClown
Good morning friends, Just caught up with all the great posts here. To keep it all in perspective, I'd like to recommend one of my favourite recent reads. 'Tuesdays with Morrie' - an old man, a young man, and life's greatest lesson. by Mitch Albom PS Have a great day.
A friend recommended the book said if I liked "5 people you meet in heaven" this was the next book to read.
...
  • #575
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:38am Feb 5, 2016 5:38am
Biggest fall in 7 years for the US Dollar on Wednesday, and now here you can see how it has found support, temporary or otherwise, on the trend line. Today's NFP will determine whether it rises or breaks lower.
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  • #576
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:44am Feb 5, 2016 5:44am
Keep the books coming guys! We are all traders, and if there's a special book/s we found a valuable lesson in for ourselves, they they're very likely going to do the same thing for others. I've found the best books for this business are not necessarily trading books, they can be anything that moves and inspires you.
  • #577
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:57am Feb 5, 2016 5:57am
Quoting cat
Keep the books coming guys! We are all traders, and if there's a special book/s we found a valuable lesson in for ourselves, they they're very likely going to do the same thing for others. I've found the best books for this business are not necessarily trading books, they can be anything that moves and inspires you.
well, which inspires me regarding trading and is not about trading i recommend this one

Tao of Jeet Kune Do (amazon)

Compiled from Bruce Lees notes and essays and originally published in 1975, this iconic volume is one of the seminal martial arts guides of its time. The science and philosophy behind the fighting system Lee pioneered himself jeet kune do is explained in detail, depicted through hundreds of Lees own illustrations. With the collaboration of Lees daughter, Shannon, and Bruce Lee Enterprises, this new edition is expanded, updated, and remastered, covering topics such as Zen and enlightenment, kicking, striking, grappling, and footwork. Featuring an introduction by Linda Lee, this is essential reading for any practitioner, offering a brief glimpse into the mind of one of the worlds greatest martial artists.
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #578
  • Feb 5, 2016 11:55am Feb 5, 2016 11:55am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} That post nailed it Jm
Hard won lessons, like all of us Nick!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #579
  • Edited 1:28pm Feb 5, 2016 12:58pm | Edited 1:28pm
Let me show you this, because this is exactly the kind of day that most people get burned - the easiest day of all to make money. This is a 3 minute Dax chart from the 2nd of this month, a day of strong selling, and yet guess what, most traders, even experienced ones, will attempt to buy into a market that is doing this, sad, but true. The reasons traders do this I've written about above so I won't repeat them here, but believe me they do.

What I'm showing here is a section of the 3 minute chart showing the typical stair formation of a trending market - here down, retrace, down, retrace, down etc. How do you pick the top of the retrace? Once you get to read these pullbacks and recognize when they are rolling over on the smaller time frames than this one, then they can be timed with fairly good accuracy, and because these trades are going WITH the trend, the price tends not to snap back against you as it does when you are trading AGAINST the trend, - it tends to rise or fall away quickly.

You can see how the price reacts to the 76.4% and the 61.8% fib levels. Top left, once the price puts in a lower high, it's all down.

Where to get out? More difficult. You either stay in with this obvious downward momentum riding it as far as you can, or you exit on smaller time frames which give you a signal that the price is about to retrace, and then jump in again on the short side when it has done so.

Very many traders will be attempting to catch bottoms all the way down, getting continually burnt as they do so, either that, or they won't bother to trade at all because they feel they've missed the move!!

I'll never say anything is easy in trading, but these trades with the trend offer the highest probability of a successful trade that can be found.

And don't worry if you don't trade the DAX, because this could be any forex pair. I use exactly the same strategy whatever I trade.

ps - I'm always happy to receive questions from people, queries, whatever, so don't be shy - this thread is to help others, that is it's only purpose, so don't hesitate to ask if there's something you're not sure about and I'll help if I can. If you want to be discreet, then send me a pm and I'll get back to you asap.
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  • #580
  • Feb 5, 2016 4:02pm Feb 5, 2016 4:02pm
Quoting cat
Let me show you this, because this is exactly the kind of day that most people get burned - the easiest day of all to make money. This is a 3 minute Dax chart from the 2nd of this month, a day of strong selling, and yet guess what, most traders, even experienced ones, will attempt to buy into a market that is doing this, sad, but true. The reasons traders do this I've written about above so I won't repeat them here, but believe me they do. What I'm showing here is a section of the 3 minute chart showing the typical stair formation of a trending...
Nice example. I always trade the trends. I have some rules for myself that can be useful for others too:
1- I use Fibonacci retracement and do not take the signals which are beyond 78.6.
2- I use a CCI 8 to show me whether the retracement is valid or not. (if the signal is very good I may ignore this read the rest for more info). If we are in a down trend and we have a CCI over or near 100 level the retracement is valid if it couldn't force the CCI to go above the 0 line the retracement is too weak.
3- the signal bar should show me the retracement is over and the market is going back to its direction. so I use pinbar, engulfing, and outside patterns to make sure of that.
4- I count the previous waves. If there were more than two moves behind the signal I ignore it because an "abc" wave is probably near.
5- And last but not least, I pay attention to support and resistance areas, round numbers, pivot points, trend lines, and channels to see how much room price has got before it turns against me. If it has enough room to move my stop to the BE I enter if not I ignore the signal.

Paying attention to all of these are not easy in lower time frames. That is why scalping is very difficult. But after a while you can do these analysis very fast and decide based on your analysis.
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