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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #821
  • Aug 17, 2006 8:06pm Aug 17, 2006 8:06pm
Quoting arayle
How about GU?has it finish going down?
What is GU?
fxtrada.com
  • #822
  • Aug 18, 2006 2:56am Aug 18, 2006 2:56am
Friday August 18 at 3:45 ET

EUR/GBP just rose 104 pips and met a probable reversal point.

TS #145 Sell EUR/GBP at .6814


Stop is .6835
Target is .6724

Risk is 24 pips
Reward is 87 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.6 to 1

For research purposes only
<!-- / message -->
  • #823
  • Aug 18, 2006 7:04am Aug 18, 2006 7:04am
Friday August 18 at 7:45 ET

USD/CAD just rose 37 pips in a corrective upwards wave and met a probable reversal point.

TS #146 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1232

Stop is 1.1246

Target is 1.1100

Risk is 16 pips
Reward is 128 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.0 to 1

For research purposes only

<!-- / message -->
  • #824
  • Aug 18, 2006 7:15am Aug 18, 2006 7:15am
Friday August 18 at 7:45 ET

USD/CHF just rose 76 pips in a corrective upwards wave and met a highly probable reversal point.

TS #147 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2362

Stop is 1.2387

Target #1 is 1.2200

Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 158 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.4 to 1

For research purposes only
  • #825
  • Edited 11:26am Aug 18, 2006 8:06am | Edited 11:26am
Friday August 18 at 8:30 ET


USD/JPY just rose 53 pips in a corrective upwards wave and met a probable reversal point.

TS #143A Sell USD/JPY at 115.95

Stop is 116.16

Target is 113.30

Risk is 25 pips
Reward is 261 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 10.4 to 1

For research purposes only
  • #826
  • Aug 18, 2006 8:28am Aug 18, 2006 8:28am
Quoting itme
Friday August 18 at 3:45 ET

EUR/GBP just rose 104 pips and met a probable reversal point.

TS #145 Sell EUR/GBP at .6814


Stop is .6835
Target is .6724

Risk is 24 pips
Reward is 87 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.6 to 1

For research purposes only
<!-- / message -->
Hi! I wanna thank you for your thread first. Your comments support my thoughts many times.
Do you still have the same view on this pair?
All the best!
  • #827
  • Aug 18, 2006 9:47am Aug 18, 2006 9:47am
My thoughts on EUR/GBP are that it will go down now, as GBP/USD rises strongly. It is not generally a good currency to trade, though, as it rarely moves as strongly and quickly as the majors or some other cross currencies. I just included this trade because it is in an interesting configuration that I want to study.
  • #828
  • Aug 18, 2006 11:19am Aug 18, 2006 11:19am
Friday August 18 at 10:30

GBP/USD just fell 92 pips in what we believe is the last swing downtrend of a complex corrective downwards wave, and also it came to a critical reversal point, a likely reversal point, of the downwards trend since August 8 according to our model.

TS #148 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8780

Stop is 1.8736

Target #1 is 1.9000

Risk is 48 pips
Reward is 216 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.9 to 1

For research purposes only
<!-- / message -->
  • #829
  • Aug 18, 2006 11:48am Aug 18, 2006 11:48am
Friday August 18 at 12:30 ET

USD/CAD rose to 1.1260, hitting our stop which was at 1.1246. This new high is a good re-entry price zone for a short.

TS #146A Sell USD/CAD at 1.1260

Stop is 1.1281
Target is 1.1100

Risk is 24 pips
Reward is 156 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.5 to 1

For research purposes only

________________________________________________________

Friday August 18 at 7:45 ET
USD/CAD just rose 37 pips in a corrective upwards wave and met a probable reversal point.
TS #146 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1232
Stop is 1.1246
Target is 1.1100
Risk is 16 pips
Reward is 128 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.0 to 1

For research purposes only
  • #830
  • Aug 18, 2006 12:03pm Aug 18, 2006 12:03pm
Friday August 18 at 12:45 ET

EUR/CAD rose 75 pips in a corrective wave to 1.14434. This new high is a good re-entry price zone for a short, as evidenced by a cluster of targetting axes.

TS #146A Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4434

Stop is 1.4455
Target is 1.4150

Risk is 31 pips
Reward is 274 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.8 to 1

For research purposes only
  • #831
  • Aug 18, 2006 12:16pm Aug 18, 2006 12:16pm
Quoting itme
My thoughts on EUR/GBP are that it will go down now, as GBP/USD rises strongly. It is not generally a good currency to trade, though, as it rarely moves as strongly and quickly as the majors or some other cross currencies. I just included this trade because it is in an interesting configuration that I want to study.
Thanks for the answer. Have a nice weekend!
  • #832
  • Aug 21, 2006 8:53am Aug 21, 2006 8:53am
Monday August 21 9:45 ET

EUR/CAD rose higher than expected, to 1.4472, hitting our stop which was placed at 1.4455. EUR/CAD subsequently fell to 1.4406 before shooting up to 1.4466 again when disappointing Canadian retail sales data was released at 8:30 ET this morning.

Sell on a rise to 1.4450 or better, (the higher the better - less risk for more potential gain), stop must be at 1.4525, which is far away, but target is still 1.4150.

A falling USD/CAD, conjoined with a EUR/USD which will descend in a day or two, will move this cross down over the next few days.
_____________________________________

Friday August 18 at 12:45 ET

EUR/CAD rose 75 pips in a corrective wave to 1.14434. This new high is a good re-entry price zone for a short, as evidenced by a cluster of targetting axes.

TS #146A Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4434

Stop is 1.4455
Target is 1.4150

Risk is 31 pips
Reward is 274 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.8 to 1

For research purposes only
  • #833
  • Aug 21, 2006 8:56am Aug 21, 2006 8:56am
What about our beloved JPY pairs? hehe. EURJPY is at multiyear highs. But GBPJPY hasnt revisited its previous highs of a few weeks ago as yet.
  • #834
  • Edited 9:56am Aug 21, 2006 9:44am | Edited 9:56am
Monday August 21 10:45 ET

EUR/USD rose as predicted, while USD/JPY delayed its fall. This caused EUR/JPY to rise. EUR/USD has now almost finished its upward trend according to our model, and USD/JPY will be falling soon. This will mean that both EUR/USD and USD/JPY will trend downwards, causing a steep fall in EUR/JPY.

TS #144A Sell EUR/JPY at 149.70

Stop is 150.11

Target is 147.25

Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 241 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.5 to 1

For research purposes only.
_______________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

EUR/JPY went down as predicted on August 10, but more than predicted, descending to 147.20 (we predicted a fall to about 147.90). Then, as predicted, it rose to a new high at about 148.85 on August 16, which was tested 7 times on the 15 minute chart. This would have been an excellent short opportunity at exactly the resistance level for a low risk, high reward trade. EUR/JPY then fell 60 pips to 148.25 this morning, followed by a bounce up to 148.84, which is a probable reversal point according to our system of analysis.USD/JPY, as we predicted on August 10, rose to a new high, but higher than expected, rising to 116.75 (we predicted a rise to about 115.75 - 115.90). It formed a triple top at 116.75 on August 14 and August 15, which would have been an ideal sell opportunity. Then it started a new downwards trend, and advanced down to 115.20 this morning. It then bounced up to 116.02, which is a good sell opportunity.

Thursday August 17 at 13:30 ET


TS #144 Sell EUR/JPY at 148.80

Stop is 149.07

Target is 146.75

Risk is 30 pips
Reward is 202 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.7 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #835
  • Aug 21, 2006 1:22pm Aug 21, 2006 1:22pm
The following trade shorting USD/CHF hit its target this morning, and went even a little further down to 1.2182, after moving 200 pips from its high of 1.2380, which was met on Friday morning. USD/CHF subsequently bounced up to 1.2240. It will probably reverse between here and 1.2250, and then proceed further down to 1.2140 or lower:

________________________________________

Previous trade signal:
<!--StartFragment --><!--StartFragment -->
Friday August 18 at 7:45 ET

USD/CHF just rose 76 pips in a corrective upwards wave and met a highly probable reversal point.
TS #147 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2362
Stop is 1.2387
Target #1 is 1.2200
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 158 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.4 to 1

For research purposes only
  • #836
  • Aug 21, 2006 1:34pm Aug 21, 2006 1:34pm
GBP/USD made a morning high of 1.8995, just 5 pips short of our trade target. We believe that it will rise again and meet our target.

______________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Friday August 18 at 10:30

GBP/USD just fell 92 pips in what we believe is the last swing downtrend of a complex corrective downwards wave, and also it came to a critical reversal point, a likely reversal point, of the downwards trend since August 8 according to our model.

TS #148 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8780
Stop is 1.8736
Target #1 is 1.9000
Risk is 48 pips
Reward is 216 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.9 to 1

For research purposes only
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->
  • #837
  • Aug 21, 2006 2:34pm Aug 21, 2006 2:34pm
Quoting itme
The following trade shorting USD/CHF hit its target this morning, and went even a little further down to 1.2182, after moving 200 pips from its high of 1.2380, which was met on Friday morning. USD/CHF subsequently bounced up to 1.2240. It will probably reverse between here and 1.2250, and then proceed further down to 1.2140 or lower
Nice trade. Congratulations!
  • #838
  • Aug 21, 2006 3:58pm Aug 21, 2006 3:58pm
Thanks. Our efforts are gradually resulting in better performance. Patience, precision and carefullness are essential. The models are good, but require alot of time and skill, plus the maturity to wait.
  • #839
  • Aug 21, 2006 6:23pm Aug 21, 2006 6:23pm
The GBPUSD trade that you have on now is a fantastic trade.. GBPUSD is a very hard cross to trade due to is high ranging intermediate swings. The market as you pointed out has fallen just shy of your target (1.9000) .. if trading this are you ever tempted to take profit early and re-enter lower .. It's almost 100 points lower this morning (dropped to 1.8901) would this be a good re-entry for an climb to the 1.9000 lvls?

or do you always wait out the trade to either your stop or targets are hit?

You also think that GBPUSD will make another run up and hit the target .. would this likely be a exhustive wave up and a very Critical time/level for the GBPUSD. In otherwords .. would it be a good time to REVERSE the position and start selling the GBPUSD ?
  • #840
  • Aug 21, 2006 8:37pm Aug 21, 2006 8:37pm
Quoting itme
Thanks. Our efforts are gradually resulting in better performance. Patience, precision and carefullness are essential. The models are good, but require alot of time and skill, plus the maturity to wait.
dear itme, it's cool to have your free signals.. and most of the time your signal proven us that they work trumendously! may i know.. when will u share us the method on how to calculate your system.. thanx
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