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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #20,801
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:32am Feb 3, 2016 12:32am
Kuroda Suggests "No Limit" To More NIRP Measures To Stall Japanese Bond Yields, Stocks, USDJPY Plunge


when the people finally awake it is only a small step to build the guillotines
  • #20,802
  • Feb 3, 2016 3:15am Feb 3, 2016 3:15am
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} looks like a truncated 5th failure,, heading down to final 5th now (or b of 4) {image} {image}
Again, i have same view. When bottom (short -mid term) will come usually in extended channels come agressive, so there could be massive short squeeze, i will look to long LL as long as its bellow 25 with tight stop, from lower TF setups aiming for squeeze move. But for now i am still just shorting nothing else.
  • #20,803
  • Feb 3, 2016 8:12am Feb 3, 2016 8:12am
There we go to 1.1+ EU.
  • #20,804
  • Feb 3, 2016 11:11am Feb 3, 2016 11:11am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0160203_DB.jpg

Hm so if EZ banks are heavily exposed to China, that means we could see large bailout to come in EZ in 2017 0r 18 (eg US 2008). I dont believe FED is trying to take down DB, becouse that would just be financial apocalipse so bailout is what seems the option that could happen.
  • #20,805
  • Feb 3, 2016 1:10pm Feb 3, 2016 1:10pm
Hi, guys

So, we have a breakthrough upwards.
The EU daily chart is below.

Best,
D.P.
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Hunting High and Low
  • #20,806
  • Feb 3, 2016 1:14pm Feb 3, 2016 1:14pm
False Flags Are Just a Conspiracy Theor ... Admitted Fact

a really good one

Jan will like it, I think
  • #20,807
  • Edited 5:35pm Feb 3, 2016 1:38pm | Edited 5:35pm
Quoting infinitus
False Flags Are Just a Conspiracy Theor ... Admitted Fact a really good one Jan will like it, I think


False flags have been invented (as first time recorded in history writtings) in around 1000 BC in Egyptean empire (if i remember corectly). Since then probably there were 10 thousands of them, many lost in history. History will recognize current false flags in past 20 years as non-conspirancies but that will be in 50 years, when noone will give a shit about it anymore, becouse of those people will be dead already. It isnt coincidence that "history" is recognized with 50 year number. An avarage 30 year fellow of society will very likely be dead by then before truth is revealed.
,
  • #20,808
  • Feb 3, 2016 3:49pm Feb 3, 2016 3:49pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...60203_EOD2.jpg

Dudley stop telling the truth! Its damage.
  • #20,809
  • Feb 3, 2016 5:45pm Feb 3, 2016 5:45pm
Goldman Capitulates: Revises Fed Call, No Longer Expects A March Rate Hike

Interesting, isn't it, how they fleece the sheeple everytime?
  • #20,810
  • Feb 3, 2016 5:46pm Feb 3, 2016 5:46pm
It's Groundhog Day Again For The Rising Rates Crowd
  • #20,811
  • Feb 4, 2016 3:42am Feb 4, 2016 3:42am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} in a general bearish setup I do not necessarily expect sentiment to go fully bullish before reversal. From a risk perspective it would be easier to trade, that is for sure :-) would like to see 1140-1155 for shorting {image}
Are you shorting now?
  • #20,812
  • Feb 4, 2016 7:01am Feb 4, 2016 7:01am
Gold weekly, maybe down from a bit higher if trendline bumps. If 1200 is taken then it should go to 1300 or higher. Current up leg is not typical rotation leg so there is for now larger chance for down on trendline bump.
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  • #20,813
  • Feb 4, 2016 9:52am Feb 4, 2016 9:52am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Again, i have same view. When bottom (short -mid term) will come usually in extended channels come agressive, so there could be massive short squeeze, i will look to long LL as long as its bellow 25 with tight stop, from lower TF setups aiming for squeeze move. But for now i am still just shorting nothing else.
Updated count, could be down here in wave b or i, looks a bit better as 'b', but tough to say at the moment
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #20,814
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:07am Feb 4, 2016 11:07am
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} Updated count, could be down here in wave b or i, looks a bit better as 'b', but tough to say at the moment {image}
Currently testing important trendline, it could go down directly from here, that would fit with structural view from my side. However if it breaks, then i would expect it to go defenetly to at least your 4 target or perhaps a bit more. For shorts its very good RR here, risk is small (just above previous high).

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  • #20,815
  • Feb 4, 2016 12:18pm Feb 4, 2016 12:18pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Are you shorting now?

not yet - there are a few things I do not like at the moment:

A) bullish momentum is rather high

B) USD is weak

C) the retail crowd seems to reduce their long positions over the course of the last days - would rather like to see them buying with both hands

D) sentiment index is at 62% bullish (Option/Future traders) - would like to see it higher

E) I am cautious, since the expected wave down would be the last one of a wave 5 - what if my count is wrong (since the pattern is not so clear at all)?

Best idea is to sell as near to 1191.45 as possible (the wave 4 top). SL would be just behind that.

Invalidation of wave 4 top would call for much higher prices over the course of this year.
  • #20,816
  • Feb 4, 2016 12:31pm Feb 4, 2016 12:31pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} not yet - there are a few things I do not like at the moment: A) bullish momentum is rather high B) USD is weak C) the retail crowd seems to reduce their long positions over the course of the last days - would rather like to see them buying with both hands D) sentiment index is at 62% bullish (Option/Future traders) - would like to see it higher E) I am cautious, since the expected wave down would be the last one of a wave 5 - what if my count is wrong (since the pattern is not so clear at all)? Best idea is to sell as near to 1191.45 as...



Regarding EU:
Somehow I have a funny felling that it might go as high as 1.18 - 1.20 area ... is it possible from EW point of view ?
  • #20,817
  • Feb 4, 2016 12:35pm Feb 4, 2016 12:35pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} not yet - there are a few things I do not like at the moment: A) bullish momentum is rather high B) USD is weak C) the retail crowd seems to reduce their long positions over the course of the last days - would rather like to see them buying with both hands D) sentiment index is at 62% bullish (Option/Future traders) - would like to see it higher E) I am cautious, since the expected wave down would be the last one of a wave 5 - what if my count is wrong (since the pattern is not so clear at all)? Best idea is to sell as near to 1191.45 as...

Around 1160 in Gold would be a nice fib place
  • #20,818
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:10pm Feb 4, 2016 1:10pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} not yet - there are a few things I do not like at the moment: A) bullish momentum is rather high B) USD is weak C) the retail crowd seems to reduce their long positions over the course of the last days - would rather like to see them buying with both hands D) sentiment index is at 62% bullish (Option/Future traders) - would like to see it higher E) I am cautious, since the expected wave down would be the last one of a wave 5 - what if my count is wrong (since the pattern is not so clear at all)? Best idea is to sell as near to 1191.45 as...
Is that 1191.45 well written? If we are now over 1.1220. I was speaking about EU.
  • #20,819
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:22pm Feb 4, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Regarding EU: Somehow I have a funny felling that it might go as high as 1.18 - 1.20 area ... is it possible from EW point of view ?
yes, definitively:

although my main count, which sees us in a wave 4 since the low at around 1.04 (or already in wave 5 down), fibs extremely well, there are other reasonably counts, which puts us eventually in a scenario, where much higher prices may be reached.

1.2228 is the 50% retracement of the whole move down, 1.2645 is the 61.8% retracement, 1.1811 is the 38.2%

Since many years the structure of the moves in EU are open to multiple interpretations.

Keep in mind: especially in Forex, the direction/wave pattern of an instrument can be heavily skewed by Macro events, namely foremost CB actions/interventions.

Also keep in mind, that the social mood does not follow the wave pattern, but vice versa. And social mood can change on a dime. The EW pattern are flexible and the following count has to take that into account.

With this said:

imagine a movement, where the most likeliest outcome would be an impulse.

So wave 1, 2 and 3 builds.

All of a sudden social mood changes (or CB intervenes heavily), and the following movements offset more than the length of wave 3.

So we would have to label the supposed impulse simply as ABC-zigzag pattern. From that point we would have to assess the situation anew.


When we set the low at the 3rd of December, something smelled very fishy already a few days earlier. Price traced out a pattern which I think is an ending diagonal. I originally thought that the wave down from the 1.1495 high in mid October would be a wave 3 of a wave 5. But the ending diagonal ruled out, that the wave would reach the 161.8 extension of the wave 1 (of 5).

Either we are in kind of an ending diagonal since the 1.1714 top last year (invalidation above 1.1495), or price may go up much higher.

When the 1.1714 top is the wave A of a flat, and the 1.0522 the low of the wave B of that flat, then the wave C should optimally terminate between 1.1775 (100%) and 1.2550 (161.8%).

Another scenario is, that we are within a broad triangle (see here: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaWsfEDW4AEP6UC.png:large)

Sentiment data in EU are not much helping at the moment with bulls at 46%. Retail trader crowd (via the outlets of the retail trader broker) are heavily short.

Structure of the movements since start of January is also not helpful because open to multiple interpretations.


My feeling was, that everytime we were below the 1.08x levels, bank advertised the idea of the EU to go below parity. This idea was entertained also the last days from some banks. Nice fleecing of the sheeple.


For me it seems, that the FED has no chance to hike the rates this year 3 or 4 times. I think they may hike one time more to see the economy deteriorating. Maybe we get a hale marry move towards parity in this situation, maybe.


From this point on the Euro may gain the upper hand. In the moment I can not imagine price to go sub parity. But we will see how social mood may develop.
  • #20,820
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:26pm Feb 4, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Is that 1191.45 well written? If we are now over 1.1220. I was speaking about EU.



I was speaking about Gold, because you quoted my message regarding Gold
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