Market View; World Stock Indexes; Trading Journal

Yesterday, North American market recovered from lows during the session, despite having ended in negative territory. However, given the low trading volume this recovery becomes negligible, and it is not possible to anticipate with more certainty a positive trend.

A member of the Conference Board said that consumers remain positive on the current state of the economy, particularly as regards the labor market: slightly increased the number of people who anticipate an increase in jobs in the coming months, while which decreased the percentage of consumers who expected fewer jobs.

It was a pretty profitable year! :-)
The forum was a great help.
Which you all Wish you all a Happy 2016!

After the oil has fallen about 40% over the past three months, the positive consequences should begin to emerge and perhaps to influence investor decisions. Some macroeconomic studies indicate that a decrease of 60 USD / barrel crude price moves about 2000 000 M.USD from producing countries to consuming countries. In recent months, investors focused on the negative impact that the oil is falling in countries like Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Russia, etc. However, there is a flip side and the main beneficiary is Europe. In fact, the European Union is one of the largest importers of oil and at a time when its economy has not yet reached a 'cruising speed', the fall of oil could be the missing driver. In fact, if one considers that the European Union imports about 30% of the world's oil, so a drop of 60 USD / barrel will generate an income of about 660,000 M.USD to this region.

If European markets close higher today, many investors who have opened selling positions in the market will resort to derivatives to protect their capital and might close their positions. In addition, recent declines have made some stocks interesting from a fundamental point of view, which could attract the interest of the so-called value Investors. When a financial asset goes through a very prolonged and steep downturn, where many investors have opened selling positions (short), recoveries are usually quite quick and sharp. However, if today’s behavior of European equities is weak investors who bought yesterday, as well as potential buyers will be discouraged.

Today US oil reserves will be released. In recent weeks, there has been a fairly volatile and distant readings forecast of economists. Despite this volatility is possible to trace a pattern, characterized by a much smaller increase in oil reserves and a sharp increase in gas reserves. Economists estimate that crude oil reserves have increased 2.6 M.USD and gasoline 1.9 M.USD.

For a more enduring reversal of investor sentiment, the statements of Mario Draghi do not seem to be enough. To attend a recovery of stock markets, it should be confirmed any of the following conditions:
– The decline in fears about a devaluation of the Yuan (which has already been happening)
– The stabilization of the Chinese markets
– The oil recovery

he value of crude oil was undoubtedly the main catalyst of Wall Street’s rise on Friday. Oil posted the largest daily increase since August of last year valuing up 9%.

From a technical point of view, while the S & P stays above 1800 points, there remains a reasonable probability that the stock markets entering into a recovery.

The meeting of the Fed today will not bring major changes in relation to what was broadcast to the market at its December meeting. Last month, the oil retreated over 25%, with a negative impact on inflation and hindering the task of driving the Fed to levels close to 2%. Given this trend, investors will monitor the reference of the Fed for inflation, it is not excluded the minutes to reveal the apprehension of the members of the Central Bank, which would lead investors to believe not only that the Fed will not raise rates at the March meeting as the number of increases may be smaller than anticipated by the Fed members (4 increases of 0.25%).

In the European session will be the scene of two opposite forces: a negative reaction from Wall Street to the Fed decision and the appreciation of oil in the New York session.

Asian markets closed with sharp gains, due to the somewhat surprising decision by the Bank of Japan. Challenging economists’ forecasts, which point to an extension of the asset purchase program, the Bank of Japan decided to reduce the interest rate on deposits which the Nipponese banks have with this institution to -0.10%. This measure is not innovative but takes the surprise character in that Governor Haruhiko Kuroda recently to have shown skeptical to the adoption of negative interest rates.

Regarding the potential of the ongoing recovery, this will depend on the behavior of oil and Chinese financial markets. From a technical point of view, and considering the DAX as a sample of European markets, the first obstacle relevant to the rise of the German index is located in the zone of 10170-10270. The recovery is expected to be much more volatile than in the last years. It is not excluded that this upward movement is interrupted by negative sessions, in which may occur sharp devaluations.

It seems that the GBP/USD move to the downside is over for now.

Perhaps the overperformance of the Chinese market was due to the approach of the New Year festivities and the possibility (purely hypothetical) that the Bank of China to surprise the financial markets during this period with some monetary measure

The Governor of New-York Fed, said that conditions in financial markets and the global economy serve as compelling evidence to the US economy, with the same effects of a rise in interest rates. Investors interpreted the words of William Dudley as a lower propensity of the Central Bank to raise interest rates at its next meeting in March.

Despite the recent acceleration, wages are not fully mirroring, the improvements in the labor market.

With closed Asian markets, oil prices should capture the attention, and the trading volume should be more restrained. In terms of consolidation movements, the French retailer Casino has agreed to sell a majority stake in the Thai operator of supermarket Big C Supercenter by 3,100 M €, excluding debt to the Thai TCC Group. On the other hand, the Air France KLM said passenger traffic grew 3.20% in January, while the traffic loads decreased 6.40%.

It looks like european stocks are heading for 2013 low.

In recent sessions, European equities have been under strong selling pressure and since the beginning of the year have recorded a underperformance compared to their US counterparts. The reasons for this pattern are several. The first is that the European economy is far more exposed to China than the US. Another reason has to do with the resurgence of fears about the banking sector in different European countries. Another cause of selling pressure on European equities is that in December these equities are the first choice of global investors who had overexposure to European equity indices, justified by good economic prospects and the expectation that the ECB will implement further monetary stimulus measures. When earlier this year as risk aversion increased significantly, global investors rushed to reduce their exposure to equity markets and consequently those in which they held a greater exposure.