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Prez Forex (pres78) Trading Journal

  • #521
  • Feb 3, 2016 9:01am Feb 3, 2016 9:01am
Quoting pres78
GBP USD 5 min NS/test into the H of TVZ. We've already moved up so much today (well over ADR) that I'd be nervous to take a long at this point (not much room back to the days high) but it sure looks like the sellers still aren't very interested at this point.
​Well that would have worked out OK. I was already in so I decided not to add on for reasons noted above.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #522
  • Feb 3, 2016 9:05am Feb 3, 2016 9:05am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Anyone catch this one? Reasons why you wouldn't have taken it? The red zone was today's HVZ at the time. This has since been eclipsed by the last hour which just ticked over. {image}
​Had I seen it I would have taken it for sure as a scalp back to the H which I would have tried to hold onto in case it ran (which it did). Loads of room to get even 2:1 had the H held.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #523
  • Feb 3, 2016 9:09am Feb 3, 2016 9:09am
Quoting pres78
I too took a GBPUSD long. Started as a scalp back to the zone H but has taken off. Currently locked in at 6:1. Entry was 4400, SL 4385. 15 min NS into YVZ 50% after having taken out the high. This was the last 15 min bar of LO first hour which gave a close above the 50% and was on the hourly chart an increased volume down bar. The fact it closed with a NS was enough for me to expect a return to at least the H. ​Edit - now locked in for 7:1 {image}
​Ended up pulling a nice 11:1 return from this one. Sellers now seem a bit more interested.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDiM15.png Size: 52 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #524
  • Edited 9:51am Feb 3, 2016 9:23am | Edited 9:51am
Quoting VSAgav
Pres - quick question around something I think you've covered before so sorry if this is a little repetitive!; In the NY session I find my charts get a little busy. I usually by this point have YHVC, LOHVC, a THVC (if its higher than LO) and then you also the target HVCs at around ADR (as per the plan you outline in post #1). So it can start looking a bit busy (as per chart example below). Am I right in saying that you can take LOHVC off assuming there is a higher volume THVC and if LO and NYO overlap YHVC then you can remove them too? I know I...
​For me what works is this;

  1. YVZ = yellow fib (I ONLY remove IF a zone from today fully engulfs it and is on HIGHER volume)
  2. ADR Target zones = gray dashed lines (I ONLY remove if PA has full engulfed the zone - because then its redundant)
  3. LOVZ really only applies at LO for a trade at that time. Usually this zone is the highest volume at the time but almost always gets replaced by a NYO (or later) zone and many times gets replaced even in the hour or two after LO. This zone really is ALL about getting an entry during the first couple of hours of London session and also can work in conjunction with YVZ to confirm trend or bias. IF the LO zone is still today's highest volume at NYO and we are still close to it then I will trade it as today's zone for a possible NYO trade.
  4. NYOVZ zone similar to LOVZ except it usually becomes a confirmation zone for either trend continuation or possible reversal from what LO showed us.
  5. Either way I mark TVZ in white so at a quick glance I can easily separate the levels and what they are. Only ever have one zone from today on your chart.

You can actually use today's zones as they print to trail and manage active trades but that is another topic for another post and another time. I don't want to confuse anyone more than I already have. For me trading this way is like breathing and it can be tough to keep it simple for everyone.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #525
  • Feb 3, 2016 9:48am Feb 3, 2016 9:48am
Quoting pres78
For me what works is this.......
Thanks Pres. This makes absolute sense. Super appreciate it!
Volume at Volume
  • #526
  • Edited 11:13am Feb 3, 2016 10:34am | Edited 11:13am
GBPUSD short scalp at 4586 looking for 50% of TVZ (see if we bounce, L would be next target after). 5min ND into the ZH. Will see if I can trail. TP 1 is just below 50% and would give 2:1.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #527
  • Feb 3, 2016 11:06am Feb 3, 2016 11:06am
Quoting pres78
GBPUSD short scalp at 4586 looking for 50% of TVZ (see if we bounce, L would be next target after). 5min ND into the ZH. Will see if I can trail. TP 1 is just below 50% and would give 2:1.
​TP1 target hit and closed for 2:1. Second half now at BE.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #528
  • Feb 3, 2016 11:30am Feb 3, 2016 11:30am
GBPUSD 15 min ND into TVZ 50%... touched and closed below the level. Not a call, just an observation ...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #529
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:00pm Feb 3, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting pres78
GBPUSD 15 min ND into TVZ 50%... touched and closed below the level. Not a call, just an observation ...
​ND has been Invalidated.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #530
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:10pm Feb 3, 2016 12:10pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} ​TP1 target hit and closed for 2:1. Second half now at BE.
​Out at BE for second half.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #531
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:38pm Feb 3, 2016 12:38pm
Well that wasn't smart on my part. Not only did I get stopped out at BE on the second half of my GBPUSD trade but I missed a chance to get long (and out of my short in profit rather than BE) back to the TVZH off a lovely little 5 min pres78 2BR type 1 into 50% of TVZ. What a slacker!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #532
  • Feb 3, 2016 1:09pm Feb 3, 2016 1:09pm
Quoting pres78
Well that wasn't smart on my part. Not only did I get stopped out at BE on the second half of my GBPUSD trade but I missed a chance to get long (and out of my short in profit rather than BE) back to the TVZH off a lovely little 5 min pres78 2BR type 1 into 50% of TVZ. What a slacker!
​Seems like it might be the right time to write a post on understanding trade expectations and trade limitations to hopefully help some others and also to refresh things in my own mind after my poor handling of my GBPUSD short scalp earlier today. So many things I want to do. Just need to find the time.

What do you do when your to do list has grown longer than a page? I may need to hire and assistant!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #533
  • Feb 3, 2016 6:12pm Feb 3, 2016 6:12pm
So I entered a GBPUSD short scalp... it was a scalp and nothing more. Trading the zone itself during a pause in the holy shit get out of the way bull train trend seen today. I took the trade with great intentions. Grab 2:1 on part 1 upon seeing a return to the 50% of TVZ. If 50% gave way then I close out part 2 at the L.

That's the problem... IF... Let me say that again... IF THE 50% GAVE WAY. IT DID NOT.

So why did I let part 2 run back to my BE SL? Back to back 2BR's into the 50%. Increased effort down bars followed by up bars... Hello hidden buyers.

So why oh why did I not exit after that second 2BR? And to make things worse it was a pres78 2BR Type 1. For me that's the king of all signals. And best of all the signal was with the trend, not against it. We are above the hinge, sure the H hadn't given way yet but I had loads of room for a nice return even if the H didn't give way and let's be honest a buy today had a better chance of being a runner.

We need to make peace when we open a trade what the realistic expectations are for it based on the limitations we can measure.

GBPUSD short from the H is a countertrend scalp as we are most likely seeing a pause in the trend and there is a great chance we will see a bounce at the 50%, what R:R can we get from the H to the 50% (= expectation), we are above the hinge (= limitation), we are in a bull trend (= limitation) and so on...

I should have been happy with 2:1 on both halves and if I wanted to trail to the L I needed to be nimble enough to get out when I saw signs the pause was over.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDiM5.png Size: 51 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #534
  • Feb 4, 2016 12:37am Feb 4, 2016 12:37am
GU was the pair of yesterday. 4h zone of 08 Jan. should not move to BE quickly on 1st trade but it happens still happy .feeling a bit relax and quick responses.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #535
  • Feb 4, 2016 5:17am Feb 4, 2016 5:17am
Pres, what do you use to calculate your ADR? An online calculator or an MT4 indicator?
  • #536
  • Feb 4, 2016 6:20am Feb 4, 2016 6:20am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Pres, what do you use to calculate your ADR? An online calculator or an MT4 indicator?
An MT4 indi, see the bottom right corner of my chart (there are hundreds out there available freely).
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #537
  • Feb 4, 2016 6:42am Feb 4, 2016 6:42am
The GBP weakness (news fuelled - appears to be temporary and a possible SO) helped boost my EURGBP trade taken off a 15 min NS into TVZH. While putting this post together I was stopped out for 5:1. SL was 10 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPiM15.png Size: 42 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #538
  • Feb 4, 2016 10:31am Feb 4, 2016 10:31am
Usdcad H test
Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #539
  • Feb 4, 2016 10:34am Feb 4, 2016 10:34am
Quoting HighFivve
Usdcad H test
​Yes there were actually 2 pres78 2BR's into the H on the 5 min chart. I missed the first but took the second, long at 3701, SL at 3691.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #540
  • Feb 4, 2016 10:38am Feb 4, 2016 10:38am
<p>[quote=pres78;8733149]{quote} ​Yes there were actually 2 pres78 2BR's into the H on the 5 min chart. I missed the first but took the sec

Me too in at 83
Learn THEN Unlearn
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