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Prez Forex (pres78) Trading Journal

  • #481
  • Jan 28, 2016 8:33am Jan 28, 2016 8:33am
I missed this perfect little trade at the end of the first NYO hour on USDCAD...

LO bar today had it's 50% at the L of YVZ. We went up and rolled over at 50% of YVZ to gather sells (by enticing buyers to buy the pending BO of today's high), broke the L of YVZ and were below the hinge or TVZ. Perfect 5 min ND (look at that complete lack of volume) into the shared level, entry on the very next bar and boom down we go. Great stuff. Entry was on a break of the LO zone L. We may have seen a re-test but in the case she just kept on going
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADiM5.png Size: 49 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #482
  • Jan 28, 2016 10:10am Jan 28, 2016 10:10am
Quoting pres78
I am currently in a GBPUSD long (scalp for now, may see if I can manage it into a runner)...
And we did. A nice runner which has exceeded the ADR by 50%. Was managing this manually but now I am just letting my EA do it's thing.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #483
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:40am Jan 28, 2016 11:40am
Stopped out on my GBPUSD longs but now long again after a 15 min pres78 2BR Type 2 (I will explain more in the coming days - will follow onto an earlier post I made about my previous GBPUSD longs) into today's zone high. Looking for a return back to today's daily high.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #484
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:50am Jan 28, 2016 11:50am
Thank you Pres!

We are also curious about the 3 bar pattern mentioned a few pages back!
  • #485
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:53am Jan 28, 2016 11:53am
Quoting Rinehart
Thank you Pres! We are also curious about the 3 bar pattern mentioned a few pages back!
​Sorry to keep everyone hanging but I assure you it is on my to do list (it's getting longer by the day)... this working fulltime, trading part time and trying to run this place is a tough balance.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #486
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:01pm Jan 28, 2016 1:01pm
Quoting pres78
Stopped out on my GBPUSD longs but now long again after a 15 min pres78 2BR Type 2 (I will explain more in the coming days - will follow onto an earlier post I made about my previous GBPUSD longs) into today's zone high. Looking for a return back to today's daily high.
Hello 4400 (GBPUSD we will be there soon )...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #487
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:19pm Jan 28, 2016 1:19pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Hello 4400 (GBPUSD we will be there soon )...
Or maybe not . Just killing time. Long still open but moving painfully slow sideways at the moment just below 1:1.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #488
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:47pm Jan 28, 2016 1:47pm
Quoting pres78
Stopped out on my GBPUSD longs but now long again after a 15 min pres78 2BR Type 2 (I will explain more in the coming days - will follow onto an earlier post I made about my previous GBPUSD longs) into today's zone high. Looking for a return back to today's daily high.
​Trade closed at BE+ a few. Countermanding signal, end of day coming. Trade hit 1:1 at it's best point and then slide sideways.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #489
  • Jan 28, 2016 5:51pm Jan 28, 2016 5:51pm
Quoting pres78
I am currently in a GBPUSD long (scalp for now, may see if I can manage it into a runner)... This trade and entry is a great example of a key component to a successful pres78 2BR which I did not have on this trade and in turn I suffered a bit after trade entry. Should be a good lesson for all. When I have some time I'll post a chart and explain what I did and what could have been better. Price is currently struggling up around the H of today's zone. So far the trade has hit 1:1 so I closed half and will leave the rest for now to see if we can get...
Quoting pres78
Stopped out on my GBPUSD longs but now long again after a 15 min pres78 2BR Type 2 (I will explain more in the coming days - will follow onto an earlier post I made about my previous GBPUSD longs) into today's zone high. Looking for a return back to today's daily high.
Ok so as a follow up to these two posts and as an add on thought to my FAQ I offer this. I have been finding that my pres78 2BR trades are much more successful and survive much less DD when the first bar IS on increased volume. My rules currently state that this is an option but that it is NOT required. I may turn this into two signals (after some more testing). Pres78 2BR1 is with increased volume on bar 1, pres78 2BR2 is without.

See how price meandered sideways after entry because price wasn't ready to rise. After a 2BR with the increased volume bar 1 this tends to not happen as much.

Some food for thought. Let the testing continue.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #490
  • Jan 29, 2016 4:46am Jan 29, 2016 4:46am
Recent GBPUSD short. 1:1 achieved by the zone low. Pres78 2BR1 into the shared level. White zone is today's zone which occurred oddly enough during Asia.

Hit 2:1 so far so now locked in at BE. EA will manage while I drive to work.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDiM15.png Size: 49 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #491
  • Edited 7:32am Jan 29, 2016 7:07am | Edited 7:32am
Quoting pres78
Recent GBPUSD short. 1:1 achieved by the zone low. Pres78 2BR1 into the shared level. White zone is today's zone which occurred oddly enough during Asia. Hit 2:1 so far so now locked in at BE. EA will manage while I drive to work. {image}
​And GBPUSD offered up even more chances to get short. A nice pres78 2BR2 into the zone low (both zones and closed below both), 5 min ND's into the YVZL. Hope some others got in too.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #492
  • Jan 29, 2016 12:48pm Jan 29, 2016 12:48pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} ​And GBPUSD offered up even more chances to get short. A nice pres78 2BR2 into the zone low (both zones and closed below both), 5 min ND's into the YVZL. Hope some others got in too.
​No? Just me! Well that's too bad. GBPUSD moved like a champ today!

Got knocked out at BE on trade 1 (part 2) after hitting 2:1 followed by a sizeable retrace (or my SL was too small .​)

Snagged 5:1 (where I had my EA fixed TP set at) on trade 2 (part 2). Funny thing is the bar that killed my first trade gave me my entry for my second trade.

Both entries were pres78 2BR's on the 15 min chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDiM15.png Size: 48 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #493
  • Jan 29, 2016 1:26pm Jan 29, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} ​No? Just me! Well that's too bad.
The first trade was shorting the H back into the zone, which is part of the advanced classes - VZA 201.

The second one, I hesitated because the shake out right before was the highest volume other than LO.
  • #494
  • Edited 2:08pm Jan 29, 2016 1:50pm | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting Rinehart
{quote} The first trade was shorting the H back into the zone, which is part of the advanced classes - VZA 201. The second one, I hesitated because the shake out right before was the highest volume other than LO.
​The H of YVZ sure but we did close below the 50% of YVZ and for me what sealed the deal was the fact we were now below the L of what was TVZ and I could get 1:1 before the YZL. As you can see however price wasn't ready to fall and we did come back to test the L of TVZ and 50% of YVZ before the real drop. Entry 2 based on placement was for sure the safer of the two entries.

I can see your hesitation after the little mini SO but look at the next 2 bars right after. Upbar on reducing volume (lowest in last 3) follow by the completed 2BR back out of the zone. Ease of flow was entirely to the downside. Whatever demand we spiked into was very short lived. Also I had room for 1:1 even if we didn't' get lower than the low of that SO.

Chart updated to show the two zones that were there at the time of entry. Love those shared levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDiM15.png Size: 60 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #495
  • Jan 29, 2016 2:59pm Jan 29, 2016 2:59pm
one of the things i have difficulty accepting is in using the 2 bar reversals is often the second half of the reversal is on lower volume
  • #496
  • Jan 29, 2016 3:20pm Jan 29, 2016 3:20pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
one of the things i have difficulty accepting is in using the 2 bar reversals is often the second half of the reversal is on lower volume
Yes and that's the point in my pres78 2BR's. The lower volume second bar which made the HH or the LL thus making it a test type bar. But as always to each their own and if it doesn't feel right then don't use it.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #497
  • Jan 30, 2016 5:24am Jan 30, 2016 5:24am
Good Day Pres.
Nice trades you got on the GU last few days. We have been watching in awe.

Can you please critique the trade I took below. It was a pattern Im not familiar trading (the Pres782BR on the 15m) and want to check what I was seeing was indeed something you may have taken.
Is this something you would have taken? If not can you tell me why? Was it pure luck?

Thanks!
Gav
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Volume at Volume
  • #498
  • Jan 30, 2016 6:20pm Jan 30, 2016 6:20pm
Quoting VSAgav
Good Day Pres. Nice trades you got on the GU last few days. We have been watching in awe. Can you please critique the trade I took below. It was a pattern Im not familiar trading (the Pres782BR on the 15m) and want to check what I was seeing was indeed something you may have taken. Is this something you would have taken? If not can you tell me why? Was it pure luck? Thanks! Gav {image}
Hello Gav, I hope your weekend is going well.

I am a bit confused as you say you traded the pres78 2BR but you really didn't. You entered after the bar closed below the L of the LOVZ so it wasn't really off any pattern per say and not a VSA based entry (some I guess may say you entered after the "gotcha" bar). What I will say is you correctly saw weakness in the background (that crazy UHVWRB during Asia and the rejection of the H before LO was a nice clue). Also the repeat rejections at 50% are a nice sign also.

Now would I have taken that entry?

Actually my Friday GBPJPY chart had Thursday zone on it from 170.808 to 170.152 and a "target zone (almost exactly the ADR from 50% to 50%)" from 173.756 to 173.152 (Jan 6th VZ) so the fact that we were inside that zone when LO came and we had seen the H respected I was thinking perhaps a short back to the Thursday Z. That said having that crazy UHV Asia zone sitting so close below the LO zone kept me away from this pair. LO showed sellers but I was too worried about the buyers zone whose H was only 40 pips below.

Other factors / considerations;

  1. The LO zone was NOT the highest volume on Friday. That said as we can see the London boys opening activity zone was most certainly respected. I mean come on check out that second hour of NY session. A killer mark up full of hidden selling right into the 50% and L of the LO zone, note how it closed below the L too. Big move right after.
  2. The LO zone was too narrow to trade within especially where we had NOT taken out the L. Also let's say we were trading the LO zone itself regardless of it not being the highest volume zone that day... for me there was no entry that I liked. I would ONLY trade that 2BR IF the zone L had been breached OR if I could get 1:1 before the ZL. When it printed we were inside the LOZ and my Jan 6th target zone so too much mess for me.

Nothing lined up for me on that pair on Friday.

I will say I have started to see if a KISS system of ONLY trading the current days zones (looking at using ONLY market open bars or the second bar of the market open)can be profitable or not but that study will be a long ways from being completed. I have concerns that not having the YVZ and the Target VZ could leave us a bit blind but we will see I guess. If nothing else the KISS system may turn out to be a nice scalping system. Time will tell.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #499
  • Jan 31, 2016 7:32am Jan 31, 2016 7:32am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Hello Gav, I hope your weekend is going well.
Thanks for the detailed reply Pres. A lot for me to consider and think about. Hope your weekend is going well too!

Quote
I am a bit confused as you say you traded the pres78 2BR but you really didn't......
Yes thats true. Im slightly adapting your entry technique by entering on clean confirmation of the signal bar(s). Rightly or wrongly; I will learn in due course!

The lesson I learnt this week was keeping it simple and sticking with your original prescribed plan by marking YHVC and target Z based on ADR. I wasn't sticking to that and was often just waiting for LO to print then winging it from there.

Back to the drawing board for me.

Thanks again for the great response and taking time out your weekend to do so.
Volume at Volume
  • #500
  • Feb 1, 2016 8:34am Feb 1, 2016 8:34am
EURUSD 15 min ND pending short set. ND is into the Friday VZL (which for me is the Asia session SO looking bar) which was on higher volume than the bar down at the low of the day. As you can see both zones from Friday are playing a role today. Check out the Asia PA as we found support at the 50% and H of that second Friday zone.

​Edit - pending killed.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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