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  • #81
  • Jan 28, 2016 10:56am Jan 28, 2016 10:56am
Quoting trader34
Struggled a bit initially, but got there/ {image}

Great job!!! When you have a nice up channel...and you're disciplined enough to wait to sell the high, it usually works out. It also helps, when you are going to counter trend trade, you wait until the daily ADR has been met...and in this case, it was. Again, confluence of events(having multiple reasons to enter a trade) gives you Higher Probability of a winning trade! Keep up the good work and enjoy the pips!
  • #82
  • Jan 29, 2016 2:26am Jan 29, 2016 2:26am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Great job!!! When you have a nice up channel...and you're disciplined enough to wait to sell the high, it usually works out. It also helps, when you are going to counter trend trade, you wait until the daily ADR has been met...and in this case, it was. Again, confluence of events(having multiple reasons to enter a trade) gives you Higher Probability of a winning trade! Keep up the good work and enjoy the pips!

Thanks

Yes, I am a fan of using ADR's to determine counter trade entry points. Other factors too, but my belief is that probabilities increase when ADR is included.

Confluence is important for sure. I ditched the traditional single trigger ideas some time ago and things improved dramatically.

The Traditional TA concepts of; enter when MA "x" crosses MA "y" and Stoch is at "z" just don't make sense to use blindly.
Not to say they are totally useless, but I believe that ignoring the PA leading to any signal is done at your peril, and expense!
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #83
  • Jan 29, 2016 4:57am Jan 29, 2016 4:57am
Thanks for the contribution trader34! Hope to see some others do the same.

On a side note, looks like it's profit taking Friday. Nice 1hr setup for shorts. Of course it happened early London session while I was sleeping, haha. But I'll try to post a chart in a couple hours.
  • #84
  • Jan 29, 2016 8:12am Jan 29, 2016 8:12am
I hope some of you caught this trade! Have a great weekend!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH1 006.png Size: 185 KB
  • #85
  • Jan 29, 2016 11:07am Jan 29, 2016 11:07am
Caught the same trade, banked 35 pips
  • #86
  • Jan 29, 2016 11:39am Jan 29, 2016 11:39am
Quoting biDc
Caught the same trade, banked 35 pips

Excellent, great way to end the week and enjoy your weekend!
  • #87
  • Jan 31, 2016 7:42pm Jan 31, 2016 7:42pm
not much going on to start the week. Looks like price finally broke below the 1hr 50ema and could test the 200ema around .7020. Watch to see if any possible setups happen there. Just be cautious, RBA interest rate news tomorrow so things could be tricky. Trade Smart!!!
  • #88
  • Feb 1, 2016 1:05am Feb 1, 2016 1:05am
the daily on friday posted a pinbar against the 50EMA, so looking for bias to the downside
  • #89
  • Feb 1, 2016 6:54am Feb 1, 2016 6:54am
Quoting biDc
the daily on friday posted a pinbar against the 50EMA, so looking for bias to the downside

I'm leaning to the downside as well for multiple factors...but I can't ignore the fact that price just isn't dropping either. It's still stuck around the 50ema right now. Interest rate decision tonight should get it moving one way or another at least and then we can have some more clarity!
  • #90
  • Feb 1, 2016 8:03am Feb 1, 2016 8:03am
Refreshing thread! Wonder please if anyone can advise as to another currency which is the inverse/opposite of AUDUSD please? thanks for any pointers!
  • #91
  • Feb 1, 2016 8:23am Feb 1, 2016 8:23am
Quoting JohnDalio
Refreshing thread! Wonder please if anyone can advise as to another currency which is the inverse/opposite of AUDUSD please? thanks for any pointers!

I do believe the USD/AUD is the inverse of AUD/USD. I kid I kid. Kidding aside, I'm not sure I understand your question fully...could you clarify? Are you looking for another pair that moves opposite of the AUDUSD? Example, if AUDUSD is going up then something like USDCHF is going down?
  • #92
  • Feb 1, 2016 8:36am Feb 1, 2016 8:36am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I do believe the USD/AUD is the inverse of AUD/USD. I kid I kid. Kidding aside, I'm not sure I understand your question fully...could you clarify? Are you looking for another pair that moves opposite of the AUDUSD? Example, if AUDUSD is going up then something like USDCHF is going down?
haha I thought you might say USD lol, I wasnt very clear my apologies, yes thats right I'm wondering please what would be a good inverse currency to look for short setups whilst AUDUSD is going up, thks
  • #93
  • Feb 1, 2016 9:06am Feb 1, 2016 9:06am
Quoting JohnDalio
Refreshing thread! Wonder please if anyone can advise as to another currency which is the inverse/opposite of AUDUSD please? thanks for any pointers!
EURAUD is usually in opposite correlation with AUDUSD. As is GBPAUD.
But beware, they are very different beasts! They have 2 - 3 times the ADR of AUDUSD so I strongly advise adjusting any parameters accordingly!
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #94
  • Feb 1, 2016 9:28am Feb 1, 2016 9:28am
Quoting trader34
{quote} EURAUD is usually in opposite correlation with AUDUSD. As is GBPAUD. But beware, they are very different beasts! They have 2 - 3 times the ADR of AUDUSD so I strongly advise adjusting any parameters accordingly!
Thank you trader34 I will check out and backtest my strategy with these two pairs, trying to get my head around the inverse correlation thang at the mo', confusing me lol appreciate your help!
  • #95
  • Feb 1, 2016 9:34am Feb 1, 2016 9:34am
Looks like trader34 took care of your question. Many pips to you!
  • #96
  • Feb 1, 2016 9:47am Feb 1, 2016 9:47am
Quoting JohnDalio
{quote} Thank you trader34 I will check out and backtest my strategy with these two pairs, trying to get my head around the inverse correlation thang at the mo', confusing me lol appreciate your help!

No problem. Good luck with your test.

I am a fan of EURAUD trading, but am the 1st to admit she has stung me hard a couple of times!
As a cross currency pair, it becomes particularly volatile at times where there are large fundamental factors in play with the US and Europe.
When it moves, it moves hard and fast, a quick analysis of the average candle size on any given time frame will illustrate that.

It also tends to be a more trending pair, or perhaps it just seems so because of the far larger moves.
As an example, in the month of January, AUDUSD moved in a top to bottom range of around 475 pips. In the same period, EURAUD has moved 1200 pips!
It would be wise to factor in such a huge difference while testing any inverse system
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #97
  • Feb 1, 2016 10:54am Feb 1, 2016 10:54am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I'm leaning to the downside as well for multiple factors...but I can't ignore the fact that price just isn't dropping either. It's still stuck around the 50ema right now. Interest rate decision tonight should get it moving one way or another at least and then we can have some more clarity!
Looks like price is just moving side way right now, likely waiting for the interest rate decision as you mentioned. Probably no action until then.
  • #98
  • Feb 1, 2016 2:16pm Feb 1, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting biDc
{quote} Looks like price is just moving side way right now, likely waiting for the interest rate decision as you mentioned. Probably no action until then.
Yeah, that's why I'm hesitant on any short trades. We've had two bullish weeks on Aussie and today is bullish as well. While nothing trends one way forever, I don't want to be caught on the wrong side of a trade. So the charts and markets are still saying bullish...I'm just leery of a pullback. In either case, I don't have a setup so still just waiting.
  • #99
  • Feb 1, 2016 2:59pm Feb 1, 2016 2:59pm
Just looked at the news calendar for the week...lots of big news releases for Aussie, US, and GBP. Trade smart out there....could be choppy/whippy.
  • #100
  • Feb 1, 2016 3:15pm Feb 1, 2016 3:15pm
on a side note, I have no idea what the news will be this week or how prices will react...but looking at some higher timeframe charts if Aussie clears .7200, then .7400 might be next target. if that clears then .7700 is possible. Again that's higher timeframe charts and could take weeks or a month or more to reach the last level.
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