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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #20,761
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:12pm Jan 28, 2016 1:12pm
Quoting infinitus
Gold 45% bulls it is really interesting, how quick the sentiment in Gold shifts from very bearish (below 5% bulls) to fairly bullish when the bearish case stays intact, the new bulls should soon be ripe for punishment
Good info, if we have futher price surge in gold and positioning goes to 80% bulls and price still bellow 1150 which is bear structure, then that would be solid info to short. Lets see what we get, test of 1750 however would turn weekly on possible bottoming or at least extended impulsive wave, in either case its wait and see game before jumping in.
  • #20,762
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:31pm Jan 28, 2016 1:31pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Good info, if we have futher price surge in gold and positioning goes to 80% bulls and price still bellow 1150 which is bear structure, then that would be solid info to short. Lets see what we get, test of 1750 however would turn weekly on possible bottoming or at least extended impulsive wave, in either case its wait and see game before jumping in.

in a general bearish setup I do not necessarily expect sentiment to go fully bullish before reversal.

From a risk perspective it would be easier to trade, that is for sure :-)


would like to see 1140-1155 for shorting
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  • #20,763
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:34pm Jan 28, 2016 1:34pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} if the people are right, who count a triangle setup, the 0950 area is the spot to watch

triangle setup

http://elliottchart.com/2016/01/28/eurusd-119/
  • #20,764
  • Jan 28, 2016 3:08pm Jan 28, 2016 3:08pm
and that is the dishonest side of EWI

I have often criticized their attempt to often show different counts in their different outlets:

here they are once again caught red handed


do you see the difference between the two following counts of Gold?


this
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...e-Pattern.aspx

equals this

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...----Gold..aspx

so they do await a waive C down of wave 5 in an ending diagonal setup B of 5 of 5 of A



but now they are bragging about this:


http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...e-of-Gold.aspx

Here they clearly show end of move 5 of 5 of A
  • #20,765
  • Jan 28, 2016 3:11pm Jan 28, 2016 3:11pm
Petrodollar war phase 2.5, pool out capital flows. Make the capital return to EMs and make it worthless, thats the gameplay for now. The states will do the rest with capital restrictions.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...us-real-estate
  • #20,766
  • Jan 28, 2016 3:13pm Jan 28, 2016 3:13pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} in a general bearish setup I do not necessarily expect sentiment to go fully bullish before reversal. From a risk perspective it would be easier to trade, that is for sure :-) would like to see 1140-1155 for shorting {image}
Yup same here, just saying if we do go to 1150 with severe positioning shift above 80 that would be nice signal for short.
  • #20,767
  • Jan 28, 2016 4:31pm Jan 28, 2016 4:31pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} HI INF... already spoken in other places but for me it is a good references 1.093x / 4x and 1.0333 is another {image}
long-term analysis is really what I like...
almost a year later...perfectly updated
  • #20,768
  • Jan 28, 2016 4:32pm Jan 28, 2016 4:32pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} triangle setup http://elliottchart.com/2016/01/28/eurusd-119/
I have 1.0333 as a target... and a good place to buy if the price dont break the upside 1.106x the triangle...
  • #20,769
  • Jan 28, 2016 8:14pm Jan 28, 2016 8:14pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} long-term analysis is really what I like... almost a year later...perfectly updated




keep it on.......
  • #20,770
  • Jan 29, 2016 2:11am Jan 29, 2016 2:11am
Quoting infinitus
EU 4h TF {image}

so far the triangle scenario is intact
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  • #20,771
  • Jan 29, 2016 5:42am Jan 29, 2016 5:42am
350 pips up on JPY pairs, i love how unpredictable BOJ is on their moves, have to check if that is in codex of the way of the warrior book. Lets short some JPY then.
  • #20,772
  • Edited 9:33am Jan 29, 2016 5:45am | Edited 9:33am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} I am going to pretend that this was 100 lot trade, and market just reversed when i closed the long. Heavy. {image} Here is additional confirmation that EU is likely to go further higher, ECAD bottom is in. Gona scale some longs on better price. Longs were squeezed already, shorts not yet, so it might be fbo before going further higher eg 80+ pips. {image}
Got stoped on ECAD long -18 pips, in new one now 536.

edit: That one got sacked aswell -15. BOJ fliped table on EUR looks like, test of 080 would be likely bear and cancel 1.10 for now. Hm...
  • #20,773
  • Jan 29, 2016 10:35am Jan 29, 2016 10:35am
Quoting RamsesII
Something like this for oil? {image}
Shortened B, nice one for the bulls, up to top of wave 4 soon...
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #20,774
  • Jan 29, 2016 12:18pm Jan 29, 2016 12:18pm
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} Shortened B, nice one for the bulls, up to top of wave 4 soon... {image} {image}
Yes i have same:
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36 is where i plan to sell, no production cuts from any side on market means any rally is a sell.
  • #20,775
  • Jan 29, 2016 3:27pm Jan 29, 2016 3:27pm
wwww.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-29/bank-japan-policy-panic-unleashes-stock-bond-buying-pandemonium

The cheapest money lender country just got a bit cheaper
  • #20,776
  • Jan 29, 2016 6:03pm Jan 29, 2016 6:03pm
Buy Canada, Thailand in 2 years.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...argain-emerges
  • #20,777
  • Jan 30, 2016 2:13am Jan 30, 2016 2:13am
$7 Crude? Deutsche Bank Downgrades Oil 'Lower For A Lot Longer'


Time to buy?

Have we heard similar from them when the price was above 100? Have to dig for it........
  • #20,778
  • Jan 30, 2016 2:18am Jan 30, 2016 2:18am
Dallas Fed "Responds" To Zero Hedge FOIA Request


unbelievable
  • #20,779
  • Jan 30, 2016 2:25am Jan 30, 2016 2:25am
ISIS Planning To Build Navy, NATO Commander Imagines

snippet:

Back to that in a moment after a brief trip down hypocrisy lane.

Johnstone says he’s worried about “sophisticated Chinese and Russian” weapons falling into the hands of militant groups like Hezbollah. Those weapons, he says, create a “horrible opportunity” that a “misdirected, untargeted round of a very high quality weapons system will just happen to target a cruise liner, or an oil platform, or a container ship.”

Johnstone apparently isn’t concerned that “sophisticated” American weapons might be used for similar attacks.

After all, the US is arming all sorts of Sunni extremists in Syria and one group (the FSA) has already done exactly what Johnstone claims to be so afraid of: they used a US-supplied TOW to destroy a Russian search and rescue helicopter (see here for more).
The other hypocritical thing to note about Johnstone’s assessment is that it was NATO itself that put Libya in the position it’s in now. Had NATO not supported the overthrow of Gaddafi, we wouldn’t be in this situation in the first place and ISIS wouldn’t be running amok in the country’s oil crescent.
  • #20,780
  • Jan 30, 2016 3:27am Jan 30, 2016 3:27am
interesting observations from the last two days regarding EU

the retail trader got the drop in EU right. Most retail traders were net short heaviest just shortly before the drop in EU started.

Of course,. they were mainly wrong all the way up to the 0967 top. But at that particular point the bears percentage was the highest since some times.

But they also were quick to cover. Now most outlets show, that yesterday evening they covered their short positions and are nearly balanced now (slightly long). Pity for me is: I can not see where their average price was for their shorts.

FF claims 0922, whereas "myFXbook" claims 1183. By looking at Oanda data, I would estimate the average price for a short at around 0874. Approximately half of those positions were closed above 0900
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