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  • #381
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:42am Jan 27, 2016 1:42am
Quoting FxClown
{quote} I have not bothered to read subsequent exchanges but I found your original post more than helpful. I avoid debates on this forum because there are a lot of people who are simply into 'dick waving' contest. Please carry on.
Thank you! Appreciated
  • #382
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:44am Jan 27, 2016 1:44am
Quoting FxClown
{quote}
Perhaps this one is more appropriate!?
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  • #383
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:47am Jan 27, 2016 1:47am
There are many aspects on trading itself discussed in this thread by Impact Members from which PA traders can absorb a great deal whether it is mentality or methodology.

As a non-PA trader there isn't much I can offer on trading method deliberated here, so I'll share my 2 cents on trading from a top-down perspective, namely trading as a business.

I am sure a large proportion of members here had taken a solemn vow such as "I want to become a consistent profitable trader, I want to trade for a living". Yet to reach the state of consistency as an independent trader, few had realized the non-trading aspect of trading, which is to treat trading as if you are running a business.

In any business premeditation and strategic thinking is the key, as the master of war Sun Tzsu proclaimed, "Every battle is won or lost before it is fought". In the business of trading there are few areas a fledgling needs to take extra care.

1. Have a Concrete Business Plan

What?
Career Goal: What do I really want? Do I want to be an independent trader or do I want to be a prop firm trader or bank trader?

Financial Goal: What's my current income per year? Whats my expected income from trading per year?

How?
Skill Assessment: Be honest with myself, can I call myself a successful trader? Do I trust my proven trading method and there are at least (Short Term Trader) 3mo./6mo. track record to backup my claim?

SMART Goal Setting


Financing Plan: What's my monthly expense? Judging by the size of my trading account, what return% do I have to generate monthly to cover my living expense? Is it realistic to assume that I can generate that level of return every month?
Financing Plan Alternative: To cover my living expense, what options do I have? Start my own business, keep a regular day job, get a non-demanding job, freelancing,etc?

Why are you still not a consistent profitable trader yet? Most of the time, you are under-capitalized.

2. Know Thyself
"PA trading is great, lots of people are doing it successfully, but is it for me? Do I have a better-than-average pattern recognition skill? Am I more analytical or intuitive? What's trading style suit me the best, given that I have developed calm mentality & discipline to trade it?

3. Be Honest with yourself
In every aspect.


Source: Me. Lost families connections, lost girlfriend because they all thought I had gone loony; try to plunge into full-time trading 4 times for the last 4 years, bankrupt 3 times due to lack of discipline & without a method that suited unique personal psychic & under-capitalization, now breaking even on the fourth attempt with a market-neutral method, in financing stage.
No Highs? No Lows? Must be Bose!
  • #384
  • Jan 27, 2016 2:55am Jan 27, 2016 2:55am
Quoting medici
{quote} What your chart setup make me think of is the Guppy moving average setup, with several MAs on one chart, and I wonder if yours could be similarly reduced to, say, M5 and 20 sec.
I dare say I could, but as the saying goes, ' if it ain't broke, don't fix it '.
  • #385
  • Jan 27, 2016 3:25am Jan 27, 2016 3:25am
Quoting medici
{quote} Good morning Today is Cartel day! {image}
My view on the FOMC later today is that if the Fed changes tack and acknowledges that the economy is too weak to usher in any rate hikes for the foreseeable future, perhaps even hinting at a rate cut in the coming months, the stock market should continue to rally. If Yellen however uses the rally this week to continue to deny that there are serious structural problems with the US economy and hints at further rate hikes this year, then I think we could sell off hard. She may go for the middle ground, which is that everything is fine at home, but all depends on spill over from China and overseas, in which case the Fed will be monitoring and prepared to make any necessary adjustments, which is the ' buying time ' option she has. Whether the markets buy that one or not is difficult to say.
  • #386
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:04am Jan 27, 2016 4:04am
Attached Image
None the wiser!
  • #387
  • Edited 4:27am Jan 27, 2016 4:05am | Edited 4:27am
Quoting cat
{quote} My view on the FOMC later today is that if the Fed changes tack and acknowledges that the economy is too weak to usher in any rate hikes for the foreseeable future, perhaps even hinting at a rate cut in the coming months, the stock market should continue to rally. If Yellen however uses the rally this week to continue to deny that there are serious structural problems with the US economy and hints at further rate hikes this year, then I think we could sell off hard. She may go for the middle ground, which is that everything is fine at home,...
Agreed, and I think there's another dilemma that comes into their deliberations - a dilemma that is not likely to be officially mentioned, but might very well be the core issue for the Cartel:

 

  1. Keeping interest rates low adds to the debt mountains, increasing the risk of a debt default crisis.
  2. Raising rates risks a global liquidity crunch in the financial markets.


In other words, whichever way they take, they risk causing turbulence a la 2007-08. Will be good for us, but it may set off a mayhem, as it would prove the Cartel's policies over recent years to be ineffective. If we can't trust the Cartel, then who can we trust?

  • #388
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:23am Jan 27, 2016 4:23am
Quoting medici
{quote} If we can't trust the Cartel, then who can we trust?
That's just it, no one. The whole mess needs to be completely restructured, otherwise it's an endless cycle of boom/bust only now without the boom unless you're in the richest 1%. There needs to be a crash and recession of such enormity for people to finally wake up to the fact that the entire banking system is rigged in favour of a few very rich people whilst the rest slosh around in debt and on low wages. I do not wish it because people are going to suffer terribly in the recession that is coming, but there is no other way. And is it good for us? On the one hand as traders it is, but on the other, I do not wish to see friends and family perhaps lose their jobs or suffer from the vagaries that recessions inevitable bring about.
  • #389
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:28am Jan 27, 2016 4:28am
With trading, as in life, the key component is being able to quickly get back on your feet following the inevitable setbacks. Making sure your whole approach is well structured and methodical enables you to do this.
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  • #390
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:32am Jan 27, 2016 4:32am
Floosie agrees and hopes that Cat has got out of that blind
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #391
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:39am Jan 27, 2016 4:39am
Quoting FxClown
{image}
Good one. Raises two questions/observations for me.

1. On ranging days like in DAX today, picking top and bottoms (in a rule-based fashion) is the way to go.

2. On trading days like yesterday, that is definitely not the way to go.

Two topics for discussion, which might benefit us all, would be

a. How do you tell ranging from trending? It's not about a "range", but about mean-reversion, perhaps?

b. How should one take-profit and re-enter in a strong trend? Note that the profit-taking question is logically the same as the bottom/top-picking endeavour.

Any thoughts?
  • #392
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:44am Jan 27, 2016 4:44am
Quoting Islander
Floosie agrees and hopes that Cat has got out of that blind {image}
It's not my cat, but yes, hopefully he/she has by now
  • #393
  • Edited 5:01am Jan 27, 2016 4:47am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting cat
{quote} That's just it, no one. The whole mess needs to be completely restructured, otherwise it's an endless cycle of boom/bust only now without the boom unless you're in the richest 1%. There needs to be a crash and recession of such enormity for people to finally wake up to the fact that the entire banking system is rigged in favour of a few very rich people whilst the rest slosh around in debt and on low wages. I do not wish it because people are going to suffer terribly in the recession that is coming, but there is no other way. And is it good...
I agree with both your sentiment and point of view. And such a crisis is very likely. Since WW2, this illusion of constant stable growth has been entertained, whereas for previous generations that was unheard of, and a lot of "kicking the can up the hill" (as Soros put it) has been going on to maintain it, instead of taking the necessary small pains to keep things in balance.
  • #394
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:49am Jan 27, 2016 4:49am
Quoting cat
{quote} That's just it, no one. The whole mess needs to be completely restructured, otherwise it's an endless cycle of boom/bust only now without the boom unless you're in the richest 1%. There needs to be a crash and recession of such enormity for people to finally wake up to the fact that the entire banking system is rigged in favour of a few very rich people whilst the rest slosh around in debt and on low wages. I do not wish it because people are going to suffer terribly in the recession that is coming, but there is no other way. And is it good...
when I was younger I used to believe that conspiracy theories about the world being leaded by a small minority very rich people are all bullshit. However, today I believe that there are some powerful game changers in the world who care about nothing but their assets. They don't need to act in hidden groups like "Masons" anymore. Most of them are well known. If you look at World Economic Forum which is held at Davos you can see lots of political and non-political figures who gather together to make sure everything goes as it should be. Of course they may not be responsible for everything in the world like wars or terrorist attacks (I hope I'm right) but they are responsible for lots of other things that can affect people's life directly or indirectly. That's why the get richer and richer no matter what happens in the world.
  • #395
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:54am Jan 27, 2016 4:54am
Quoting ebitalebi
{quote} when I was younger I used to believe that conspiracy theories about the world being leaded by a small minority very rich people are all bullshit. However, today I believe that there are some powerful game changers in the world who care about nothing but their assets. They don't need to act in hidden groups like "Masons" anymore. Most of them are well known. If you look at World Economic Forum which is held at Davos you can see lots of political and non-political figures who gather together to make sure everything goes as it should be. Of...
Just because you're paranoid, that doesn't mean there isn't a conspiracy In my experience, I've found it to be a systemic expression of human nature, rather than anything like the scary visions keeping the paranoid awake at night.
  • #396
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:59am Jan 27, 2016 4:59am
Quoting Islander
Floosie agrees and hopes that Cat has got out of that blind {image}
Ah, she's beautiful I love Siamese cats.
  • #397
  • Jan 27, 2016 5:06am Jan 27, 2016 5:06am
Quoting medici
{quote} Ah, she's beautiful I love Siamese cats.
Indeed she is, although I've yet to interpret her trading signals! .......from your question earlier concerning telling a ranging market from a trending one - a simple approach might be to use Renko bars with Heiken Ashi for a double smoothed price...........I seem to remember you doing some work on this.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #398
  • Jan 27, 2016 5:09am Jan 27, 2016 5:09am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Indeed she is.......from your question earlier concerning telling a ranging market from a trending one - a simple approach might be to use Renko bars with Heiken Ashi for a double smoothed price...........I seem to remember you doing some work on this..... {image}
Right, but at those turning points, how do you know that it's a reversal to be taken, rather than profit-taking and waiting for re-entry?
  • #399
  • Edited 5:26am Jan 27, 2016 5:14am | Edited 5:26am
Quoting ebitalebi
{quote} when I was younger I used to believe that conspiracy theories about the world being leaded by a small minority very rich people are all bullshit. However, today I believe that there are some powerful game changers in the world who care about nothing but their assets. They don't need to act in hidden groups like "Masons" anymore. Most of them are well known. If you look at World Economic Forum which is held at Davos you can see lots of political and non-political figures who gather together to make sure everything goes as it should be. Of...
You don't need to be a conspiracist these days to see what is clear to see, and I think that, largely due to social media, people are waking up to the fact that even in a so called democracy like the US or the UK, our lives are controlled not by politicians, for they are just front men, but by an immensely powerful group of families who through their wealth and influence have been able to manipulate the entire global economy to their ends. And if you perhaps think that wars are somehow apart from this, I think you would be wrong. There is little profit in peace, and for the elite, everything to be gained from war. With the global economy heading into what could well be the biggest crisis it has ever faced, an event which could lead to a complete overhaul, these are dangerous times for us all, as history has shown.
  • #400
  • Jan 27, 2016 5:16am Jan 27, 2016 5:16am
Quoting medici
{quote} Right, but at those turning points, how do you know that it's a reversal to be taken, rather than profit-taking and waiting for re-entry?

A researched moving average will catch many of the pull backs in a trending move, allowing its actual roll-over to be taken a a reversal in conjunction with the chart changing colour- I'm talking about on the 4pt Renko charts which are work in progress as the 5pt or 6pt may give more consistent signals.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
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