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  • #22,481
  • Jan 26, 2016 10:48am Jan 26, 2016 10:48am
Quoting bullionman
Hi Tarantula,, I have a question regarding the AUDUSD trade yesterday (see your Jan 25, 2016 16:17 post and AUDUSD screenshot, not the latest Jan 26, 2016 12:35 screenshot). I sold @ 0.6930 / SL 0.6960 / TP 0.6850 However, my SL was hit for -30. Your session recap shows AUDUSD +80. What am I missing?
Hi Bullion,

Please look at the attached SS. We took the long scalp first which was successful. Then we sold 0.6930. You can clearly see that SL hasnt been hit as the price went to 1.69565. I always say ADD the spread to your SL ( even if its ECN add 2-5 pips ), but in this case even if u hadn't add the SL it wouldnt have been hit. Which broker do u have account with?

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  • #22,482
  • Jan 26, 2016 12:10pm Jan 26, 2016 12:10pm
Ok, no problem.
I use FXCM.
I entered at 06:26 on the 26th (14.4 hrs after your post).
Perhaps your trade was no longer valid by then.
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  • #22,483
  • Jan 26, 2016 12:22pm Jan 26, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting bullionman
Ok, no problem. I use FXCM. I entered at 06:26 on the 26th (14.4 hrs after your post). Perhaps your trade was no longer valid by then. {image}
Obviously your SL has been spiked. If you count the candles, you can see that we have initiated the trade almost the same time. It was very valid, and you should have made your profit, it was not your fault but the brokers' fault. If you are not US citizen I advise that you move your account to other broker.
  • #22,484
  • Jan 26, 2016 12:28pm Jan 26, 2016 12:28pm
Ok, thanks T!
  • #22,485
  • Jan 26, 2016 12:29pm Jan 26, 2016 12:29pm
Hi Nenad ,

I see you have a nice template and some Indicators like MACD , Stochastic and Camerilla ,

Do you mind to email to me , I'll be appreciate it ,

I have try to figure out my self some of the level on indicators but I just

couldn't fix it , by the way well done you analysis

thank you for everything

Best Regards
Jancsi
  • #22,486
  • Jan 26, 2016 1:06pm Jan 26, 2016 1:06pm
Quoting bullionman
Ok, no problem. I use FXCM. I entered at 06:26 on the 26th (14.4 hrs after your post). Perhaps your trade was no longer valid by then. {image}
As a US citizen, I am in the same boat. For years, I have occasionally seen my stops taken, to the pip, before a reversal that would have TP'd my position. I finally accepted the fact that, yes, they really are out to get you, especially when you trade standard lots. What I do now is enter a hard stop order that is well beyond typical swings for the currency, and then keep a tighter mental stop for my positions. THIS TAKES DISCIPLINE. You have to decide if you are capable of closing losing positions which always happen. It works for me. I know that if my computer or internet crashes, or I have a heart attack, I know my position will eventually close, though not at the whim of a stop-running broker.
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #22,487
  • Jan 26, 2016 1:15pm Jan 26, 2016 1:15pm
Quote
keep a tighter mental stop for my positions.

Funnily enough I do the same. It was only because Nenad's trades recommend them that I add his SLs.
My loss was only a small 1-mini lot test trade so no big deal, but I think I will go back to using price-level-alerts rather than SLs.
  • #22,488
  • Edited 2:52am Jan 27, 2016 2:31am | Edited 2:52am
Quoting T@rantula
USDCAD analysis- since it is exclusive with FXstreet you can read it HERE {image}
USDCAD Boucning from the POC

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  • #22,489
  • Jan 27, 2016 6:26am Jan 27, 2016 6:26am
Today's focus is on FOMC meeting and that is the reason why the market has been calm all day long. We should expect FED to focus on China slowdown, market volatility and weak US data. At the present FED could probably take a pass on policy and mention "patience". There are 2 possible scenarios: Hawkish scenario would be mentioning another rate hike soon (March) and if the FED skips any mention of raising rate hikes and takes on weak US data in the statement addressing both global and GDP slowdown, the statement will be considered dovish. The statement will come in the written form at 19:00 GMT.
Technically the pair is ranging with slightly bullish bias so we need to pay attention to important levels. 118.65-80 is POC (H3, 88.6, historical sellers) and on dovish statement the pair should drop towards 118.00 and 117.40 L5 intraday support. Currently the price shows a combined V shaped reversal and inverted Head and Shoulders in progress that could spike the price up towards POC sell zone.
However if the price breaks and closes above 119.00 (slightly above historical sellers and H4) it might spike up to 119.40 where it will face resistance. MACD is flat providing us with additional confirmation that market is in waiting mode so pay attention to increased volatility just before,during and after the statement has been publicly released.

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  • #22,490
  • Jan 28, 2016 3:11am Jan 28, 2016 3:11am
Quoting T@rantula
Today's focus is on FOMC meeting and that is the reason why the market has been calm all day long. We should expect FED to focus on China slowdown, market volatility and weak US data. At the present FED could probably take a pass on policy and mention "patience". There are 2 possible scenarios: Hawkish scenario would be mentioning another rate hike soon (March) and if the FED skips any mention of raising rate hikes and takes on weak US data in the statement addressing both global and GDP slowdown, the statement will be considered dovish. The statement...

Initial reaction was exactly as planned - spiked up to POC and slightly above than rejection to 118.40. Failure to break 118.00 might be bullish for this pair. If the pair gets a momentum push or H1/H4 close above 119.00 again we could see 119.40
  • #22,491
  • Jan 28, 2016 5:12am Jan 28, 2016 5:12am
Hi T.

long time since i was in FF but see ur doing awesome good job! im back in trading giving it another shot and well see how it goes hope some of your consistency to be achieved

i see the euro climbing till the meeting of draghi where hes gonna probably announce the QE and til that point should be bullish for E/U. FED was dovish this time and kind goes together with the ECB for the up move just oil should be watched if it bottoms then the next meeting of the FED could get as an hike increase..

Future plan shorting at draghi then and at fed if hike this could go back then to the downtrend for longer time porbably till winter...

Have you any thoughts about that?
  • #22,492
  • Jan 28, 2016 6:20am Jan 28, 2016 6:20am
Quoting Vladimir1987
Hi T. long time since i was in FF but see ur doing awesome good job! im back in trading giving it another shot and well see how it goes hope some of your consistency to be achieved i see the euro climbing till the meeting of draghi where hes gonna probably announce the QE and til that point should be bullish for E/U. FED was dovish this time and kind goes together with the ECB for the up move just oil should be watched if it bottoms then the next meeting of the FED could get as an hike increase.. Future plan shorting at draghi then and at fed...
Hi Vladimir! Nice to see you here again! Thanks for the comments. RE EURUSD , yes it could be the scenario. A slow grinding upside range with sell offs at important confluence points and resistance. However for full analysis pay attention to my posts.

Hope to see you here more often. Cheers!
  • #22,493
  • Jan 28, 2016 7:03am Jan 28, 2016 7:03am
NZDUSD December trade balance showed much smaller deficit as exports beat the expectations but due to RBNZ dovish stance on the currency, the pair has been sold on rallies. RBNZ governor Wheeler stated that additional NZD depreciation would be appropriate and the monetary policy should be accommodative.
The pair has broken through ascending trend line and it proceeds towards POC1 1.6465-75 (H3, 50.0, bearish order block, previous breakout point, T-89) where it might reject. The zone already rejected the pair via T-89 pattern so we are watching it again for further rejections. If the price proceeds above POC1 it will face a strong X cross resistance within 1.6490-1.6500 zone. The targets for rejections are 1.6440 and 1.6400 initially.Some bounce at 1.6400 is expected due to historical buyers at the support.

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  • #22,494
  • Jan 28, 2016 7:44am Jan 28, 2016 7:44am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} USDCAD Boucning from the POC {image}{image}
Hi T, thank you for your analysis.
It's awesome!
Just some quick question regarding the current ucad trend.
Base on the current price level, may we still continue to pursuit the target level of 1.43 or even higher?
May I know what are the fundamental that support this trend?
Thanks in advance.
  • #22,495
  • Jan 28, 2016 8:53am Jan 28, 2016 8:53am
Quoting fx-anew
{quote} Hi T, thank you for your analysis. It's awesome! Just some quick question regarding the current ucad trend. Base on the current price level, may we still continue to pursuit the target level of 1.43 or even higher? May I know what are the fundamental that support this trend? Thanks in advance.
UC pair is heavily influenced by OIL and any OIL news or rumors might interfere with the price especially if Algos kick in. UC can be traded both ways but at this point I wouldn;t touch it. It should be clear in couple of days when I will publish new UC analysis

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gl...-idUSKCN0V600R

Thanks for the comments
  • #22,496
  • Jan 29, 2016 9:05am Jan 29, 2016 9:05am
A bit late to post it, here is the analysis I exclusively made for FXstreet.

Already in profit thou.

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  • #22,497
  • Jan 29, 2016 9:12am Jan 29, 2016 9:12am
Quoting T@rantula
A bit late to post it, here is the analysis I exclusively made for FXstreet. Already in profit thou. {image}
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  • #22,498
  • Edited 10:38am Jan 29, 2016 10:32am | Edited 10:38am
Quoting T@rantula
A bit late to post it, here is the analysis I exclusively made for FXstreet. Already in profit thou. {image}
Nice analysis and interesting thread. However, I'd like to know why you considered this a positional trade over the others?

Thanks..
There is no spoon.
  • #22,499
  • Jan 31, 2016 10:09am Jan 31, 2016 10:09am
Hi guys,

I have published a new blog entry on Trading books. Read the article to find out my top 5 trading books + you can watch the video and get the FREE E-BOOKS on psychology that Chris and I wrote together.


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  • #22,500
  • Feb 1, 2016 5:15am Feb 1, 2016 5:15am
Quoting MosDef
{quote} Nice analysis and interesting thread. However, I'd like to know why you considered this a positional trade over the others? Thanks..
Thanks for the question and comment. I will answer you during the day, v busy now.
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