Prez Forex (pres78) Trading Journal

​It is only OK if you are scalping the zone and shorting a ND from the zone H. To take a ND above the 50% level and not as a scalp from below the H is WAY to risky (so is scalping the zones if you don't have top notch PA reading skills and you MUST be sitting there watching and managing the trades full time).

​Yes having the LO zone below (or above) yesterday's zone adds to the confirmation of direction IF LO keeps PA under 50% (or over 50%)... otherwise if the LO zone is a good distance away from yesterday's zone we could see a brief reversal trade from the LO zone back to yesterday's zone. Then we need to see what that zone does.

Yes rejections of 50% add to my short bias.

Yes a break below a H or L from the day before (or even the current day) is a great confirmation tool.

Basic PA structure such as HH, HL and LH, LL to confirm overall "TREND" (I use this term lightly) is again a nice confirmation.

Messy PA today. I'm really starting to hate Monday trading.

EURUSD I'm sitting firmly on my hands until we are above 1.08458. See how today at LO we closed above 50% of Friday's zone and then went back and even printed a ND below the 50% however we NEVER took out the LO zone L... Also as classic mentioned we have that wide range UHV bar from Thursday that had it's 50% below the ND so all in all we had mixed feelings. Notice how the L of the LO zone is at the 50% of that Thursday bar and how 50% of the LO zone is at 50% of Friday's zone.

Then the second hour of NYO printed a BO bar that became the new highest volume zone for the day. Notice how the 50% of that bar today is = to the H of the Friday zone (this happens ALL the time as I've mentioned before). Notice too how the H of today's zone is the same level as the H of that Thursday WRB, UHV zone ad how priced capped there at 1.08458. Thus why I am waiting for a break of it...

Even when price is not moving much and seems rangy it still respects the levels.

So this has not come up yet on this forum but I have received countless PM's asking me the following;

"If we are above the hinge of yesterday's zone at LO why not keep it simple and just set a pending long at the H and a pending long at the 50% with SL's for both below the L. Simple right? We are buyers above the zone so it must be that easy?"

My response is ALWAYS the same a simple and resounding WRONG. It IS NOT that easy. The zones are an edge, not a blind trade signal. Until we see buyers AND lack of supply at a level we ARE NOT YET BUYERS. We have nothing more than a bias that tells us we are looking to most likely get long today IF the PA is right. We know the where but we do NOT know the WHAT or HOW just yet.

Look at today's crude chart at LO. Last hourly bar before LO closed as an increased volume downbar above the zone H so we are thunking longs. Just imagine if we blindly set trades based on this alone. We would have been slaughtered.

Second chart the outcome. LO bar fully engulfs the zone from Friday... so now 1hr later we are now possible sellers. Check out how that now shared 50% level between the 2 bars was a key player in the PA to come before the ultimate sell off after a series of mark-ups and filled sell orders (DIST)...

Check out that level gray zone below that is almost exactly the ADR from 50% of Friday's zone... almost looks like a good target. Maybe we should have those on our charts ​...

I was asked a question on another forum about how I find my trades. The question was posed to me by a friend and long time supporter about how does one know to watch a certain pair or a certain TF to catch the trades for that day in the zones/levels. This can seem like a daunting task and I will be honest that some days you find many trades and some days you find none. That is just how it is. Below is a summary of my process on how I go about searching for that days trades. This is a basic summary and ONLY covers my intraday trading. I may add this to the 1st post at some point.

This response deals with how I day trade only and is simple enough really.

In the AM when I get up 1hr after LO (or at LO if I happen to be awake) I go through and load my day trading profiles 1 by 1. I have a profile for each item (pair, commodity etc...) I trade as listed in my trading plan.

When the MT4 profile loads it opens up a 1hr, 30min, 15min and 5 min chart all in one window. I go through each pair profile 1 at a time and scan for the pairs that I am interested in based on current PA and current price location as it compares to my previous days 1hr zone. If I don't see something I like the pair doesn't get written down. For pairs I do like I need to do a second look.

After the initial assessment then it's a matter of doing my trade plans for the day.

Any pairs written down get a second more detailed look. Perhaps something is already setting up, perhaps something could set up in the future or perhaps I already missed the boat. Depending on what state the pair is in I either set my trades, remove the pair from my list or set alarms to email me when PA get close to whatever levels I am watching.

I do a second quick scan and then detailed look again at NYO. Usually however the zone from yesterday no longer is in play so I am trading today's zones in conjunction with the current PA.

I mean it's also as simple if you wish to only watch the 1hr chart. If the current PA is below the zone low and working it's way back to the low you have two choices. One you stay on the 1 hour and take a trade if you see a set-up that fits your plan or you drop down to a lower TF to try and pin point a tighter entry and SL.

Crude gave an example of something I spoke of previously. LO we are well away from yesterday's zone (close to the ADR from 50% to 50%). We end up taking out the H of the LO zone and get a pres78 2BR into the H (which is trading against the bias of yesterday's zone but we have a ton of room to trade this space). Obvious trade was to go long looking for the zone from yesterday. I targeted the zone L.

Check out that PA as we hit the zone low. We see some profit taking and then another push up at NYO into the zone 50%. Seems that sellers are now back in control but we will see how this plays out from below the hinge.

I am currently watching for a short set-up from that zone.

Sticking with crude check out two things...

1. After we hit the zone L we found support at 50% of what was now today's zone (3rd hour of London session)
2. Look at what is now today's zone (2nd hour of NY session)... H = 50% of YZ and 50% = L of YZ

Volume at volume my friends!

Price currently testing that shared level (the 50% from YZ and H from TZ)... watch for sellers and lack of buying... If this shared level gives then watch for the opposite for a possible long. Couple of hours till LC so we will see if we get another set-up.

Seems that the buyers still have steam. Now we need to see if this is a real break of the hinge or a mark-up to fill sells. Let's see!

GBPUSD pending short at low of 5 min ND that just closed below yesterday's 50%. If triggered will look for a return to the zone L.

​Edit - pending killed we are back above the hinge.

​This was a shot in the dark, check out the PA at yesterday's 50% on the hourly chart. Currently we are back testing the H of today's zone and the H of yesterday's zone. Closed above Y and below T. See if we get a break and test entry for a long.

GBPUSD in short at 1.4302. 5min ND into 50% attempting to scalp the zone again looking for the Y zone low. We went up and failed at the H of T zone and are now under the L of T zone and 50% of Y zone.

​Well that went well. Hit 5:1 in under 20 minutes. Closed half at the YVZL for 2:1 (and moved to BE) letting the rest run to a fixed 5:1 TP which was also just shy of the ADR.

Nice call pres.....I'm short from 69

​Keep a close eye FOMC in a few minutes.

I'm out thanks

Just added an abbreviations section to the 1st post because I'm tired of typing out certain terms over and over. Hope it helps other understand my future posts better.

Pres, I wanted to ask you about your trailing method. I know that it is handled by your EA normally. I also know you feel trade management is very personal to the individual. Nonetheless, I feel compelled to ask.

I've been copying your entry method of taking 2 entries at the same level and then exiting one position at 1:1. Thusly, making the second position a free trade. I must say that emotionally this is a very gratifying way to trade. I too work a regular job and with this method I don't feel the overwhelming urge to stare at every tick of the trade.

What I've been doing and I'm mostly happy with is trailing the SL behind the 14 EMA on the 15 min chart. Any close past the EMA would have me move my SL up immediately to that bar. Otherwise, I wait for the pull back and then move the SL to the most recent HL or LH.

My question stems from trades that take off such as your GBPUSD trade today. This trade jetted to a substantial R:R in a short period of time. Now in the case of your GBPUSD I know you picked a previous high volume zone that is close to the ADR for a target. However, my question is what do you do in a case where you are up 5, 6 R and there is still plenty of room to the ADR (perhaps a tight SL and a big ADR pair)? With my current management, I'm waiting on the 15 EMA and it could be way back there.

I remember in a post a few days ago you mentioning that price had hit 5R on a trade and so your EA had trailed the SL up to 3R. I'm sure this is by design. I know you also mentioned averaging 4R on your runners.

Would you be willing to give any advice on trailing the 2nd positions on trades that have just taken off? Would you recommend scaling out a position? Setting a hard R goal of 5R for instance? Should I drop to a smaller timeframe and use the 14 EMA on the 5 min instead of the 15 min?

As always thank you for any and all your help!

OK fine I will indulge your curiosity ...

Anything was can do as traders to free and ease our minds and to break the bond we have with our money is a great thing. In a PM the other day I responded to a trader that I am now at the point where win or lose my emotions remain the same. This is 100% a business for me and businesses have their costs and their profits, their good days and their bad ones. To be able to say I have taken ALL risk off the table and now the trade is FREE to run truly is a comforting feeling.

Unless you are scalping over managing is just as bad as under managing. Constant tinkering with your SL can lead to two carnal sins...

1. Getting stopped out prematurely because you've trailed too quick and too tightly... trades need room to breath. Take any pair that has trended nicely for the day and look at the 1hr chart. What you may see is 6 or 7 up bars in a row and you'll say wow I could have gotten in with a 15 pip SL and grabbed 7:1. Now change it to a 5 min chart and you will see many retraces occurred within those 7 straight up bars. Good chance the swings we all around the same size (except if affected by news) and now you can see how you managed the trade and how much room you gave it and then ultimately how and when you decided to exit could have major impacts on your actual R:R.
2. Moving SL further back... once you've moved your SL to lock in at BE or 1:1 or whatever many traders are guilty of this... they see price getting close to stopping them out so they move their SL further away. I've seen traders do this to the point where they finally got stopped out at a price LOWER than their original SL. How crazy is that. Traders are so scared to take a loss and even more scared of missing out that they either trade with no SL or mess with their SL so much it might as well not even be there.

Yes this is a very popular way to manage one's SL. Either behind a MA or chandelier stop or whatever or the use the confirmed swings as you said the HL or LH etc... the problem with the swings is people get overzealous and don't wait for the swings to be fully formed and in turn get confirmed as a HL or LH. I would agree that any close below the MA warrants either a move of the SL or a close out of the trade. Personally if I used a MA as a trail I would allow one bar to close below (or above) the MA. If the next bar doesn't take us back into trend I'd be out. Of course then you could get into the long conversation about what is the right MA number and what is the right TF to use for trailing etc... thus my comments on how personal trade management can be. Some traders could stomach watching their trade come all the way back to entry after being in profit before taking off, others would sit and squirm and worry the whole time.

Yes I tend to always target previous zones that are near the ADR for my ultimate targets. Sometimes I get right out at or near the H or L for the day and other days the pairs run on forever and I could have gotten more. This does not bother me at all however as the ADR I know, this is a tracked and measurable item and logical target. When pairs are going to move double their ADR is not know and thus I can't plan for, nor trade it (or can I )...

My EA has a setting where I can decide a fixed TP for the trade. I can set it at anything from 1 to 100 (or higher) away from my entry son in reality with the right initial SL and a pair trending strongly my EA could trail forever until stopped out. I can also decided when and how to step the SL. I could trail 1R or 2R or 10R behind price...

My normal practice is to run the EA at 2R behind. Price hits 2:1 and moves to BE, 3:1 and moves to 1:1 etc... you have probably seen this is many of my posts. This works great on runners with small retraces and allows be to capture good chunks of moves.

You really need to decide a few things;

1. Are you scalping, intraday trading or swing trading?
2. What makes sense as an ultimate target?
3. How much time do you want to spend managing your trades?
4. What is the best R:R you KNOW you can get safely based on entry, SL and points of know R or S?
5. What is your tolerance for trades retracing against you? How much are you OK giving back to allow your trade the most room to breath?

That is a problem with MA's, they lag price terribly when trending and only get close to price during periods of consolidation (ACC or DIST - sometimes before price continued back to trend or before a reversal).

No I am not a fan of scaling out (although many love it and are successful with it). I like to keep my trades as two parts and manage as such.

I do as noted tend to set a hard ultimate target based on ADR and previous zones. I will sometime set a target way far away and just let the EA do it's thing. That said you can never go wrong taking profit at KNOWN and PLANABLE targets. Money in the bank is worth more than money sitting open on your charts!

When I have time and especially when I am scalping I will manually manage my positions using volume and swings. I use signs of a complete lack of demand or signs that sell orders were filled etc... to trail my SL behind.

I would say with my schedule 9 of 10 trades now are EA managed.

I am currently in a GBPUSD long (scalp for now, may see if I can manage it into a runner)...

This trade and entry is a great example of a key component to a successful pres78 2BR which I did not have on this trade and in turn I suffered a bit after trade entry. Should be a good lesson for all.

When I have some time I'll post a chart and explain what I did and what could have been better. Price is currently struggling up around the H of today's zone.

So far the trade has hit 1:1 so I closed half and will leave the rest for now to see if we can get a break and hold for a further run up at least to the days high (which takes us to the ADR).

Thank you for the very detailed answers!