Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 344 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,861
  • Jan 20, 2016 12:21pm Jan 20, 2016 12:21pm
GBPCHF... MN in consolidation
W1 is down reacting to a monthly flipzone. We have a weekly cp supply level that removed a demand level sitting up there.
D1 is also down dropping and reacting to a monthly flipzone. We have two uptions to this pair.
Firstly we need price to create a brand new demand level with 2:1 imballance on that flipzone for a counter trend long.
Secondly we wait for price to close below the flipzone for further information to go short. What do you think guys
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFW1.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFD1.png Size: 22 KB
  • #6,862
  • Jan 21, 2016 9:05am Jan 21, 2016 9:05am
Dear,
sympathy,
Please draw your monthly flip zone of GBPCHF for reference and learning purpose and elaborate how to trade flip zone.
Sorry English is not my first language.
  • #6,863
  • Jan 21, 2016 11:45am Jan 21, 2016 11:45am
Quoting server2712
Dear, sympathy, Please draw your monthly flip zone of GBPCHF for reference and learning purpose and elaborate how to trade flip zone. Sorry English is not my first language.
GBPCHF monthly is consolidating. We have a brand new supply level that broke an assending trendline at the top. The white horizontal line is the monthly flipzone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFMN_001.png Size: 20 KB
  • #6,864
  • Jan 21, 2016 1:36pm Jan 21, 2016 1:36pm
Hi Mr Alfonso and mates, here i share my latest set up, M1 and weekly are pointing down, i got the set up on 4h, lets see how this play out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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passion and discipline
  • #6,865
  • Jan 21, 2016 1:41pm Jan 21, 2016 1:41pm
i have a loss to, this was on USDCAD, M1 is up but a little bit overextended. o got the set up in h4.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadh4.PNG Size: 45 KB
passion and discipline
  • #6,866
  • Jan 21, 2016 2:58pm Jan 21, 2016 2:58pm
Quoting rohule
i have a loss to, this was on USDCAD, M1 is up but a little bit overextended. o got the set up in h4. {image}
Weekly supply in control on USDCAD now and price is over-extended after a long time rallying non-stop. No longs allowed now. Cheers
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,867
  • Jan 21, 2016 3:00pm Jan 21, 2016 3:00pm
​Hello everyone.
USDCAD...
Monthly supply has taken control though trend still up...no buys so high up for me
Weekly is still up
Daily uptrend broken, forming a potential daily SZ though we need to see where we close today and fulfil minimum criteria for a zone to be validated

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,868
  • Jan 21, 2016 3:08pm Jan 21, 2016 3:08pm
Quoting rohule
i have a loss to, this was on USDCAD, M1 is up but a little bit overextended. o got the set up in h4. {image}
Hello rohule, am gona show you how we do our topdown analysis as far as supply and demand is concern ok. We have rules in the first page you must follow and those rules are the key to supply and demand strategy. please take your time and read them by heart.

First of all we start from the higher time frames such as monthly, weekly and daily for us to know the right direction of price. From the UCAD chart you posted, MN is UP, W1 and D1 is also UP so the general trend is UP but price is already reacting to MN supply level. According to the RULES, we cannot and can never buy against the monthly supply in control. The RULES are the RULES we must follow them everytime ok.

From the 4hr chart you posted, you are trading against the MN supply in control that was why you hard a loss. Whenever the MN levels are in control all lower time frames are takingout and that was what happend. Please take your time and read the rules thanks.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: UCADW1.png Size: 20 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: UCAD4HR_003.png Size: 39 KB
  • #6,869
  • Jan 21, 2016 3:12pm Jan 21, 2016 3:12pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Weekly supply in control on USDCAD now and price is over-extended after a long time rallying non-stop. No longs allowed now. Cheers
Hi Alfonso, Seems we posted at the same time, Sorry about that BOSS
  • #6,870
  • Jan 21, 2016 3:20pm Jan 21, 2016 3:20pm
hi everyone.. been viewing this thread for a while.. I am a big fan sup/dem.. trading.. I took a trade this morning in the aud/usd I have two nested rbd levels inside daily cp level.. weekly n monthly is also down.. my first level got blown thru .. n I took a loss I don't care about the loss as long as I am doing the right thing.. just wanted the community feed back as well as the main man himself feedback ​
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD D1 (01-21-2016 1605).png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 (01-21-2016 1603).png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD M1 (01-21-2016 1605).png Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD W1 (01-21-2016 1604).png Size: 15 KB
  • #6,871
  • Jan 21, 2016 3:54pm Jan 21, 2016 3:54pm
​Hello ideal
thank you for sharing your idea
If I could comment please,

I noticed the Aussie though down on all the time frames like you noticed, was in a weekly RBR DZ from 2009 with the initial move lower
It is something to get used to but is very important to look right for freshness of a zone but also to look left to see where the next opposing zone is
The embedded zones within the daily went up against the weekly demand
Usually, higher TFs will trump lower ones.

If there had been clear sailing downwards then your trades would have a higher probability but in this case the weekly DZ came into control.

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,872
  • Jan 21, 2016 3:59pm Jan 21, 2016 3:59pm
sorry about the order of the charts..i thought they would have uploaded in order.. but you can see what I mean.. I placed another entry order at he higher level.. came close but didn't get filled what did I do wrong here? or is this just a good ..but a legit loss?​
  • #6,873
  • Jan 22, 2016 12:59am Jan 22, 2016 12:59am
Quick but basic question .. Alfonso says weekly supply in control and you are saying monthly ... is there a way to tell? I assume that if monthly supply was in control it would remove monthly demand .. which is not the case, so then think it is weekly supply because it removed the daily trendline?



Quoting sympathy
{quote} Hello rohule, am gona show you how we do our topdown analysis as far as supply and demand is concern ok. We have rules in the first page you must follow and those rules are the key to supply and demand strategy. please take your time and read them by heart. First of all we start from the higher time frames such as monthly, weekly and daily for us to know the right direction of price. From the UCAD chart you posted, MN is UP, W1 and D1 is also UP so the general trend is UP but price is already reacting to MN supply level. According...
  • #6,874
  • Jan 22, 2016 2:02am Jan 22, 2016 2:02am
Quoting sympathy
{quote} GBPCHF monthly is consolidating. We have a brand new supply level that broke an assending trendline at the top. The white horizontal line is the monthly flipzone. {image}
Thank you very much!
  • #6,875
  • Jan 22, 2016 2:29am Jan 22, 2016 2:29am
AN MN is down reacting to a very strong monthly flipzone.
W1 is also down but price is reacting a weekly demand level located at a monthly flip zone, We cant trade against such levels.
In 4HR chart price creacted a fresh demand level and i was triggered long. Bias is counter trend long by the rules
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,876
  • Jan 22, 2016 3:01am Jan 22, 2016 3:01am
Quoting n_aftab
Quick but basic question .. Alfonso says weekly supply in control and you are saying monthly ... is there a way to tell? I assume that if monthly supply was in control it would remove monthly demand .. which is not the case, so then think it is weekly supply because it removed the daily trendline? {quote}
Hi aftab, if I may, the monthly and weekly in this case are pretty much in the same place.Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,877
  • Jan 22, 2016 9:30am Jan 22, 2016 9:30am
Hello everyone
Sharing my entry short on Nikkei 225.

Analysis:
Monthly down, removed monthly demand with this week's action
Weekly down
Daily down with a daily close below monthly zone (close not required but even better)

Short at a 4hr RBD extreme zone embedded within Daily supply.

Just following the rules of supply and demand. That's all I can control. I can't control outcomes

Attached Image


Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,878
  • Jan 22, 2016 11:55am Jan 22, 2016 11:55am
Hello everyone!!
My LOSSSS((((((
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  • #6,879
  • Jan 22, 2016 12:13pm Jan 22, 2016 12:13pm
Quoting Agafon79
Hello everyone!! My LOSSSS(((((( {image}
Monthly supply in control dont trade against it. The RULES are your friends
  • #6,880
  • Jan 22, 2016 12:20pm Jan 22, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting ideal77
sorry about the order of the charts..i thought they would have uploaded in order.. but you can see what I mean.. I placed another entry order at he higher level.. came close but didn't get filled what did I do wrong here? or is this just a good ..but a legit loss?​
Hello ideal,
regarding your AUD/USD trade, you problably get filled on your upper SZ now and at the moment it could work. i think the one below was a legit loss because the WK DZ has been tested already maybe even two times and with the whole picture i would agree to trade it. but both are also aggressive trades!

Please correct me if i'm wrong
greets
Joe
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