Forward Testing!

There's no 100% accurate way to test anything.
All we have are market conditions.
You should recognize what conditions best suit your system, then decide which ones have so far been encountered.
There will always be events:
SNB
Rate cuts
Rate rises
Etc Etc

All you can do, is try to work out how your method will work with high and low volatility.
You said you are using many pairs?
Do they correlate strongly?

ok let me explain the system alittle so you have a rough idea, its almost like a trend following breakout system, so i only enter when theres a trend or a trend breakout and i have very very strong filter to make me not trade when market is sideways.

my other isue is that i used the same sl for each pair, but i know that each pair has different ADR, so that in theory is not too smart, but then the sl that i chose seems to be fair to all pairs, TP is not fixed, this is good because it improves my RR on some trades and also lowers it on others.

OK, fair enough.
The only input I can really offer, you have already covered.

To me, it is a little sub optimal to apply a blanket Sl distance.
I mean, EU has an ADR of around 100 pips, where as EURAUD has an ADR over 300.
It's very likely you could be spiked out of an otherwise winning trade by having too tight a stop loss for that pair.
But, that's where Data can help you.

If you record each entry in a simple excel sheet, log the losses on each pair, and take the following data:

Did the trade hit PT after SL?
max pips against the trade before hitting PT.
Max pips the trade went after PT (but be realistic and oly count those pips past the original PT level. If it comes back to Pt then that's it)

IF you log enough of this data you can have a clearer picture of each pair's parameters.

Well, that's how I do it anyway

ok, usualy with the small trades ive made, i hardly have any DD, thats the scary part, like 80% of the trades go towards my entry direction 80% of the time, i dont know man.

up to you mate.
There's an argument for go in now and milk it...
But, myself, I prefer to see a nasty period before I go in hard.

youre right, the only problem is that we dont knw when those periods will come, thats why im demo trading it for now.

And that;s the problem

I would do it until you see a noticeable change in the win stats, and a visual difference in the conditions on H4.
See how "bad" things get, then make a more informed choice.

yeah youre right, im going to do that

Hi bud!

1. I was forwardtesting it for 2 months, but manual backtesting (no automatical) + forwardtesting works fine as well.
2. When forward testing it - first thing I look at is consecutive win/losses. (But however, overall result is the most important thing)
3. I was doing a backtest on a worst case scenario, let me explain: hhen i was not sure whether or not price has hit TP or SL I was always considering that it has hit SL, not TP.
4. I think you have to add this question: what personal treats do certain strategies require?

Hope it was helpful,
Cheers!

Nik

You can optimize an Expert Adviser all you want on past data but you will never get the same result in the future I have been playing with EAs for a while now on fx and testing different situations and settings.

I would not let an EA trade all the time in each market I personally think you should ideally create different set files for each market condition such as trending and ranging and be able to watch the market and apply the correct settings for the market condition.

When optimizing I think its also best to optimize 1 or 2 settings at a time and have a look at the optimization graph to see which ones perform best and if there is a tight group of parameters working well then work with that range and narrow it down then move onto the next settings then back to the first settings a few times I also think its a mistake to chase profit instead you should be aiming for the best profit factor, expected payoff and drawdown.

Passes compared to losses when optimizing your EA you should also be keeping an eye on the tests that don't pass and seeing what your max drawdown could have been or did it blow the account don't ignore this data after all data is all we have so make use of it.

For example, you have a system you think will work then run it you get 90 fails 10 passes and in the 10 passes your best was 5% gain but on the fails, the worst was 10% loss would you trade this! I really hope not for a start why just why when 90% of the time it failed and made double the loss than what the top 10% result would have given you. Stay away from these and look for a move evenly balanced fail to pass ratio and try aim for something that gains more on the passes than it loses on the fails.

You should always be managing your risk when trading EAs and not oversizing lots and keep them in proportion to the account size. And even if your expected drawdown is let's say 10% it could easily surpass this so it's a good idea to deploy some kind of equity and balance protection if it's not built into the EA your using already have it built-in and modified or apply a second ea to manage this process so your positions will be closed and EAs removed to prevent blowing your whole account if things take a turn for the worst.

Use good systems and be logical and be realistic with returns don't curve fit the ea or use any risky strategies like martingale this is a disaster waiting to happen.

I recently created a system that survived a 10 year backtest with little optimization and produced a nice profit gain after I optimized a few things it got a lot better but more important it passed more times than it failed in the optimization phase with potential profits exceeded the potential losses the drawdown was about 12% with a gain on account of 170% not much for 10 years right but this is 1 pair yes I could have got more but I want a stable ea, not a risky one and hey manage the risk right nice and slowly wins the race your not getting rich overnight and if you do you have taken some great risks and it could have gone the other way.

Slow and steady wins this game create some good systems and build out a portfolio with several systems and pairs depending on market conditions and spread the risk out always remember to keep your capital safe and manage the risk correctly.

Sorry for the long post guys went on a bit of a rant but this is my thoughts on robots and what I have learned so far I would love to hear some feedback on what you guys think I know we all have our opinions but this is how I think they should be approached we will never know what the future holds but one thing I do know is I'm not losing my whole account to a badly configured robot that's taking a huge risk for no reason before stepping in.