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Basic - trading extreme positioning

  • #121
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:46pm Jan 18, 2016 2:46pm
Thanks, I understand this thread will not interest majority of traders on FF. They want quick action and fancy indicators. I trade only once or twice a week. I do not use any indicators and only basic price action coupled with sentiment indicators. For what its worth, my account is up 10 percent this year so far in two weeks.

Quoting acetrader
5abi, I like your concept on trading on readily available market info. The thread seems to have faded away & I suspect it is because the are NO indicators involved, so traders loose interest fast. From what I have seen using the info you are using will work, but as we all know nothing is ever going to work 100% of the time & what will work for one will NOT work for another. Anyway I am keeping up with what you have described here & will see how it works out over the next month. I wish you the best. __________________________
Its all in the mind.
  • #122
  • Jan 18, 2016 3:25pm Jan 18, 2016 3:25pm
5abi,

Your welcome. This week I have spotted two good trades using your method. Did not trade them, but
they were there to be traded. The method is simplistic in design & it uses no standard indicators. Look up
the numbers, if the wide difference is there........trade it. You could use lagging indicators to monitor the
trade, but they are lagging. I would cut the loss if the trade goes against you & look for another trade.
No indicators needed. The 10% increase in two weeks speaks volume about your process.
_______________________________
  • #123
  • Jan 19, 2016 3:47pm Jan 19, 2016 3:47pm
Move stop to B/E, put target at 1.6


Quoting 5abi
I bought EURCAD at 1.5775 and placed another buy order at 1.56. Stop if trades below 1.55.
Its all in the mind.
  • #124
  • Jan 19, 2016 4:43pm Jan 19, 2016 4:43pm
5abi,

At this time do you consider the AUD/USD & NZD/USD as trading opportunities using
your method? I took a long on NZD/USD last date for 35 points, but closed it as I had to
leave the screen. A usual it move higher.

________________________________
  • #125
  • Jan 19, 2016 4:51pm Jan 19, 2016 4:51pm
Quoting 5abi
Thanks, I understand this thread will not interest majority of traders on FF. They want quick action and fancy indicators. I trade only once or twice a week. I do not use any indicators and only basic price action coupled with sentiment indicators. For what its worth, my account is up 10 percent this year so far in two weeks. {quote}

Some want it hand fed with 5 indicators & when they fail to profits you & the indicators
get the blame. All you can do is share what you do & let the chips fall where they may.
I have read every post the Crucial Point has made & he gives hints all along the path,
but never divulges his exact method & he catches all kind of hell for that. I don't
blame him for not sharing what he worked hard to obtain. Thank you for sharing a
very simple & concise method using readily available info....that is free for the taking.
_______________________________________
  • #126
  • Jan 20, 2016 1:45pm Jan 20, 2016 1:45pm
Both AUD and NZD can drop much lower. I will not buy those. I am starting to buy AUD NZD, anticipate price move to 1.10.

Quoting acetrader
5abi, At this time do you consider the AUD/USD & NZD/USD as trading opportunities using your method? I took a long on NZD/USD last date for 35 points, but closed it as I had to leave the screen. A usual it move higher. ________________________________
Its all in the mind.
  • #127
  • Jan 20, 2016 1:55pm Jan 20, 2016 1:55pm
I bought AUDNZD at 1.0740, with stop below 1.055. I will add to long if it trades lower at 1.06-1.0650. I anticipate AUDNZD will want to go to 1.10 in next few weeks. Some reasons for the long:

  1. General risk off will dampen Kiwi more than Aussie.
  2. If you look closely, bad chinese data has meant larger drops in Kiwi than in Aussie.
  3. I think people have so far neglected Aussie for long or for short, but a lot of folks are loading up longs on NZD.
  4. Weekly candle has bottomed out around 1.05




Quoting 5abi
Both AUD and NZD can drop much lower. I will not buy those. I am starting to buy AUD NZD, anticipate price move to 1.10. {quote}
Its all in the mind.
  • #128
  • Jan 20, 2016 2:40pm Jan 20, 2016 2:40pm
There is no one approach that works all the time. Some times indicator guys win and sometimes the guy who relies on fundamentals wins. But no one wins all the time.

In fact it is not even important to win all the time. You just need to come up with a system that wins big when it wins and loses small when it loses. And just stick with this system. I just rely on the information what everyone is doing and do the opposite. Remember most people fail in trading, so if they are all doing something, then it makes sense to bet against them.

The other day, I was talking to my friends on Facebook and they were all buying AAPL at 105, but once it broke the support at 105, the only right thing to do is to sell AAPL, not buy it.





Quoting acetrader
{quote} Some want it hand fed with 5 indicators & when they fail to profits you & the indicators get the blame. All you can do is share what you do & let the chips fall where they may. I have read every post the Crucial Point has made & he gives hints all along the path, but never divulges his exact method & he catches all kind of hell for that. I don't blame him for not sharing what he worked hard to obtain. Thank you for sharing a very simple & concise method using readily available info....that is free for the taking. _______________________________________...
Its all in the mind.
  • #129
  • Jan 20, 2016 7:02pm Jan 20, 2016 7:02pm
Quoting 5abi
There is no one approach that works all the time. Some times indicator guys win and sometimes the guy who relies on fundamentals wins. But no one wins all the time. In fact it is not even important to win all the time. You just need to come up with a system that wins big when it wins and loses small when it loses. And just stick with this system. I just rely on the information what everyone is doing and do the opposite. Remember most people fail in trading, so if they are all doing something, then it makes sense to bet against them. The other day,...

Absolutely correct. If it is working for you.........that is all that counts & nothing more. It worked for me on one trade that I tried, (posted above)
so maybe I will devote some time & try more. Good trades to you in the days ahead.
_________________________________
  • #130
  • Jan 22, 2016 5:14am Jan 22, 2016 5:14am
Moved stop to 1.07.

Quoting 5abi
I bought AUDNZD at 1.0740, with stop below 1.055. I will add to long if it trades lower at 1.06-1.0650. I anticipate AUDNZD will want to go to 1.10 in next few weeks. Some reasons for the long: General risk off will dampen Kiwi more than Aussie. If you look closely, bad chinese data has meant larger drops in Kiwi than in Aussie. I think people have so far neglected Aussie for long or for short, but a lot of folks are loading up longs on NZD. Weekly candle has bottomed out around 1.05 {quote}
Its all in the mind.
  • #131
  • Jan 23, 2016 8:24am Jan 23, 2016 8:24am
I heard Cramer say on CNBC that stocks will go down some more. This can only mean one things, the time to buy is NOW!

Dow will open up 200 points on Monday. SP500 going back to 1975-2000 before it crashes again.

CNBC is a gift that keeps giving. Simply do exact opposite of what CNBC says. You cannot go wrong.




Quoting 5abi
Moved stop to 1.07. {quote}
Its all in the mind.
  • #132
  • Jan 23, 2016 11:45am Jan 23, 2016 11:45am
Hi,

how do you come with the buy and sell numbers and about moving the stops. If you post pics on this, will be of great help. Been following your posts even though not actively posting.

Thanks
  • #133
  • Jan 23, 2016 4:23pm Jan 23, 2016 4:23pm
Next week... Looking to buy Canadian dollars and sell Yen. In particular I like buying CADJPY and selling NZDCAD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2016-01-23 at 4.21.07 PM.png Size: 164 KB
Its all in the mind.
  • #134
  • Jan 23, 2016 6:45pm Jan 23, 2016 6:45pm
Nice post, helped me understand. Any price levels you are looking at for entering in both the above pairs.
  • #135
  • Jan 24, 2016 1:17am Jan 24, 2016 1:17am
Hi,

I see that you are using the bears and bulls indicator on a daily chart. Can you please explain what you look on these two.

Regards
  • #136
  • Jan 27, 2016 7:35am Jan 27, 2016 7:35am
Just bought a small long in AUDJPY at 83.60 for a 100 point run upto 84.60. 100 point stop. Since markets are dropping and JPY is weakening, it just needs a little bit of a incentive to get to 85 or more today after FOMC.
Its all in the mind.
  • #137
  • Jan 28, 2016 8:53am Jan 28, 2016 8:53am
hit the target

Quoting 5abi
Just bought a small long in AUDJPY at 83.60 for a 100 point run upto 84.60. 100 point stop. Since markets are dropping and JPY is weakening, it just needs a little bit of a incentive to get to 85 or more today after FOMC.
Its all in the mind.
  • #138
  • Jan 28, 2016 8:53am Jan 28, 2016 8:53am
closed for 200 point profit. going flat into month end.


Quoting 5abi
I bought AUDNZD at 1.0740, with stop below 1.055. I will add to long if it trades lower at 1.06-1.0650. I anticipate AUDNZD will want to go to 1.10 in next few weeks. Some reasons for the long: General risk off will dampen Kiwi more than Aussie. If you look closely, bad chinese data has meant larger drops in Kiwi than in Aussie. I think people have so far neglected Aussie for long or for short, but a lot of folks are loading up longs on NZD. Weekly candle has bottomed out around 1.05 {quote}
Its all in the mind.
  • #139
  • Feb 2, 2016 11:51am Feb 2, 2016 11:51am
Sold EURJPY @ 131.05, stop 132.5, targeting 129.10
Its all in the mind.
  • #140
  • Feb 3, 2016 10:51am Feb 3, 2016 10:51am
Quoting 5abi
Sold EURJPY @ 131.05, stop 132.5, targeting 129.10
According to Oanda open positions, EURJPY was not in an extreme position. May I know the reason for the trade? Thanks.
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