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Prez Forex (pres78) Trading Journal

  • #401
  • Jan 17, 2016 3:08pm Jan 17, 2016 3:08pm
Quoting Darastonius
Okay, so this week I had 5 trades, 2 winners 3 losers. The losers were caused by nuances I forgot about, and shouldn't have taken the trades anyway (twice the no demands were able to close back inside the zone, and once the ND wasn't confirmed and had too big spread, so likely it wasn't an ND.) I'm risking 2%, the winners would have made 5,3%, which would be more than satisfying for me for a week, but the losers made -6%, so -0,7% overall. Now the problem is, that I don't have strict enough rules yet. This strategy has a true edge, I paper traded...
​Dara,

You are on the right track with getting some rules written in stone. Rules are key to success. You are on the right track and have your beta version based very much on what I described in the basics of VZA chart set-up. That said and as you have noted you need to cover much more than just the placement of zones. Entries, exits, money management etc... all need to be built in ones trade plan. We can and should leave nothing to chance. This is a business, not gambling after all.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #402
  • Jan 17, 2016 3:10pm Jan 17, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting TravB
Would humbly suggest you put this on the front page, as it explains everything in it's simplest form. {quote} PS: Really interested in that 3BR pattern you discussed. I tried going back through some charts but nothing stuck out, so eager to find out what I missed.
I will at some point add this to post 1. Family life took over this weekend so I accomplished nothing trading related. This week hopefully. I will also respond to the 3 bar pattern... I need more time!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #403
  • Jan 17, 2016 4:00pm Jan 17, 2016 4:00pm
Guys, Pres78 and VSAgav.

I have been reading for your posts and found what both of you completely use your inventions' (2BR and 3BR patterns, ) bars.
Also I have found that those 2BR and 3BRs mostly confirm areas of "conveyance of property" (supply/demand shifting).
For the same purposes of looking for such areas of S/D shifting, I personally use a little bit different tools (look at the picture below and you can find the same areas marked by the cascade-like red line. However, this line is intraday only. That is why I have eventually thought of proposing you to make an MTF indicator that could find and plot those 2BR and 3BR patterns and give us a possibility to show these areas on the lower TFs. I personally think that some of these zones (if they are intraday) completely coincide with the cascade-like red line. Anyway those areas taken from the higher TFs are to be very helpful at the lower ones.

Best,
D.P.
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Hunting High and Low
  • #404
  • Jan 18, 2016 12:09am Jan 18, 2016 12:09am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Always place the most weight on the most current zones (yesterday's and today's as they form - both for new possible trade set-ups and also for signs that PA may be reversing on current positions etc...)
Being a lazy person and reading every single word and trying to understand. Seen lots your posts talking about PA (Price actions) also with zones.
so want to know basically what PA means to you. which things and Patterns you consider and want to as PA? are these HH,HL candlesticks,Price above/below MA fib ratios other then zones (which are not on your charts btw very clean charts) or something else. Kindly explain it considering me as a total noob.
Thanks in advance.
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #405
  • Jan 18, 2016 9:35am Jan 18, 2016 9:35am
Quoting classix
{quote} Being a lazy person and reading every single word and trying to understand. Seen lots your posts talking about PA (Price actions) also with zones. so want to know basically what PA means to you. which things and Patterns you consider and want to as PA? are these HH,HL candlesticks,Price above/below MA fib ratios other then zones (which are not on your charts btw very clean charts) or something else. Kindly explain it considering me as a total noob. Thanks in advance.
​Price action is just that... what action is the market doing? Yes the good old market structure of HH, HL in an uptrend is an example of price action but then again so is testing or consolidating. You need to read the context in which I made the statement to understand what I mean at that time when I say I want to see this or that type of PA.

If I say I want to see buyers PA at a zone level then I am basically saying I want to see signs that buyers are in control and sellers are either losing or are non existent.

I hope this is clear enough for you to understand my use of the term PA in the future.

For the record personally I wouldn't lump market swings (such as HH / HL etc...) into the term PA (though many do). I would rather call this market structure which was caused by PA.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #406
  • Edited 9:59am Jan 18, 2016 9:44am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Guys, Pres78 and VSAgav. I have been reading for your posts and found what both of you completely use your inventions' (2BR and 3BR patterns, ) bars. Also I have found that those 2BR and 3BRs mostly confirm areas of "conveyance of property" (supply/demand shifting). For the same purposes of looking for such areas of S/D shifting, I personally use a little bit different tools (look at the picture below and you can find the same areas marked by the cascade-like red line. However, this line is intraday only. That is why I have eventually...
​Dr. P,

I have read this post and looked at your chart a few times now and I have to admit you've lost me on this one. I am not sure what the red line in your chart is actually showing. I understand I guess what you are saying about a MTF indi to show say a 1hr 2BR on a 5 min chart (not sure just yet what the value of that would be) but I am struggling to see the correlation between what your showing and how I trade.

Perhaps my brain is simply not at 100% today but I just can't make sense of it. Hoping you can clarify a bit more.

Also when I trade a 2BR into a zone high I don't look at it as a shifting of S/D as I am expecting for demand to be at the zone anyway. The 2BR is a confirmation that demand is in control (as was expected) and that supply is either losing or has left the market. The requirement on my pres78 2BR of having the LL adds the element of a test into the pattern giving added strength to it as a trade signal.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #407
  • Jan 18, 2016 10:48am Jan 18, 2016 10:48am
0 trades today. Between lack of news and US bank holiday I decided to take the day off. Let's see what tomorrow brings! Some pairs had strong moves overnight others have just been drifting.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #408
  • Jan 18, 2016 10:59am Jan 18, 2016 10:59am
Quoting pres78
{quote} ​Dr. P, I have read this post and looked at your chart a few times now and I have to admit you've lost me on this one. I am not sure what the red line in your chart is actually showing.
Hi, Pres78

Thank you for your kind reply.

This line actually is co-called the PVP line - the normal distribution has a peak around this price, which Jperl calls the Peak Volume Price or PVP (also known as the Point of Control in Market Profile Analysis). The PVP line is an equivalent to the 50% line at your 2BR and 3BR patterns. Also one can say the PVP is the line, where the price is balanced at the current level, at the time required for balance to be set at the level.

Your 2BR and 3BR patterns are just PA patterns that confirm the area, where the price is balanced. If you look at these patterns, you can find that they are doji-like patterns.

Quoting pres78
{quote} I understand I guess what you are saying about a MTF indi to show say a 1hr 2BR on a 5 min chart (not sure just yet what the value of that would be) but I am struggling to see the correlation between what your showing and how I trade. Perhaps my brain is simply not at 100% today but I just can't make sense of it. Hoping you can clarify a bit more.
Significance of the higher TF patterns is that they give us areas, where the price can meet surplus support/resistance from those who operate at the strategic viewpoint. If you trade 5 min TFs and know the 1H TF's S/D zone, as you know, it must be helpful.

Quoting pres78
{quote} Also when I trade a 2BR into a zone high I don't look at it as a shifting of S/D as I am expecting for demand to be at the zone anyway.
As you are expecting for demand, sombody is expecting for supply at this time - that is S/D shifting.

Quoting pres78
{quote} The 2BR is a confirmation that demand is in control (as was expected) and that supply is either losing or has left the market. The requirement on my pres78 2BR of having the LL adds the element of a test into the pattern giving added strength to it as a trade signal.
Completely sure.

Your patterns are the other way to say the same thing and to see where the prices can bounce out or break through the area.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #409
  • Jan 19, 2016 9:01am Jan 19, 2016 9:01am
Did I drew the right zone ?

so next step is to observe PA (2BR / 3BR) at the 0.0 / 0.5/ 1 fibs level ?

I am not sure if this flow is correct or not.
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  • #410
  • Edited 9:44am Jan 19, 2016 9:33am | Edited 9:44am
Quoting jiemisii
Did I drew the right zone ? so next step is to observe PA (2BR / 3BR) at the 0.0 / 0.5/ 1 fibs level ? I am not sure if this flow is correct or not. {image}
That is/was the highest volume zone today however to start the day we need to have a fib on the highest volume 1hr bar from yesterday. If we don't get a set-up into that zone then yes we can start to trade today's zones (usually focus on market open bars). With a pair like AUDJPY it's not uncommon though to see UHV print overnight as thus pair would be heavily traded during the Asia / Sydney sessions. That makes it a bit tougher to trade during London and NY sessions.

As far as taking trades for longs we only look for set-ups at 50% and the H. Below 50% and the L we are in short mode. Remember that 50% is the hinge for the zone.

I don't trade this pair so I can't comment much more on it other than to say that we have just found support at the low of the LO zone and are now testing the H and are seeing rejection as we do have a bit of a negative price / volume flow at the moment.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #411
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:07am Jan 19, 2016 11:07am
Just updated post 1 with a VZA basic rules / chart set-up section right above the FAQ. Hope this helps. If anyone sees anything they think I've missed or that should be added let me know.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #412
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:35am Jan 19, 2016 11:35am
Quoting pres78
Just updated post 1 with a VZA basic rules / chart set-up section right above the FAQ. Hope this helps. If anyone sees anything they think I've missed or that should be added let me know.

Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #413
  • Jan 19, 2016 1:51pm Jan 19, 2016 1:51pm
Great stuff, pres.
  • #414
  • Jan 19, 2016 2:49pm Jan 19, 2016 2:49pm
A trade of mine today which was b/e (entirely my own fault and not price actions). There is hope for me yet Im sure.

typo on the chart should read - "entry at 2BR - it's a little weak as the higher volume isnt really there on the 1st bar but the 2 attempts helped me decided to take it"
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Volume at Volume
  • #415
  • Jan 20, 2016 5:47am Jan 20, 2016 5:47am
Hi Pres,

So I have another question around zone biases. You mention that the hinge point is the 50%, so if we are above then bias is long. You also say that if we are away from yesterdays zone, then we use todays zone as the guide. My confusion comes in situations like today on the EUR. LO was well away from yesterdays zone and we formed a zone today on the LO bar. We broke below the zone and retested the low so a good safe short entry around the 936 level. However as I write this, we are now approaching the high of yesterdays zone. So we have conflicting biases, short from todays zone and long from yesterdays now active zone. How do we manage this?
  • #416
  • Jan 20, 2016 6:25am Jan 20, 2016 6:25am
Quoting andys0506
Hi Pres, So I have another question around zone biases. You mention that the hinge point is the 50%, so if we are above then bias is long. You also say that if we are away from yesterdays zone, then we use todays zone as the guide. My confusion comes in situations like today on the EUR. LO was well away from yesterdays zone and we formed a zone today on the LO bar. We broke below the zone and retested the low so a good safe short entry around the 936 level. However as I write this, we are now approaching the high of yesterdays zone. So we have conflicting...
If there is room for proper R:R take the short from today's zone using yesterday's zone H-50% as a target and expected bounce point. Now it doesn't mean we have to close 100% because we hit yesterday's zone as if the market is weak and the SM plan on continued weakness the zone could well give way. But there will still be demand there even if it is to be absorbed by the SM. So at minimum we want to bank some profit and lock in the rest. If we start to see signs of buying and lack of sellers then we for sure want to get out. Or if you are happy with the R:R achieved by the time we hit the zone from yesterday then close it all.

There are many days where we can see action like this. LO above the zone, short set-up back to yesterday's zone right around NYO, we see a switching of hands where the SM show they have left the sellers side and are now buyers...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #417
  • Jan 20, 2016 8:48am Jan 20, 2016 8:48am
Pres, I have a question about news announcements. I'm wondering if you pay attention to news and hold off on entering positions before red news?

My own personal feeling is that avoiding all red news will make you miss most moves. However, some of the news is like playing with dynamite. My opinion is to be aware of news announcements but to not avoid entering a good trade unless the news is something like NFP or any Central Bank news.

Can you please share how you handle upcoming news announcements?

Case and point, here's my GU trade from today. I entered about mins before the CPI news for the US. Afterwards, I would have missed my successful trade.

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  • #418
  • Jan 20, 2016 9:53am Jan 20, 2016 9:53am
Let us see.
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  • #419
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:13am Jan 20, 2016 10:13am
Quoting Kelowkie
Let us see. {image}
Stopped out,twice
  • #420
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:40am Jan 20, 2016 10:40am
Hi Kelowkie
Sorry that didnt work out.
Can we see what you had marked on the 1hr chart in terms of HVC's etc?
Volume at Volume
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