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  • #221
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  • Jan 16, 2016 1:58pm Jan 16, 2016 1:58pm
Quoting Tom81
This works for me .......
Thanks Tom81 - much appreciated!
  • #222
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  • Edited 10:16am Jan 17, 2016 9:42am | Edited 10:16am
Quoting cat
{quote} Thanks Tom81 - much appreciated!
You're welcome

Maybe two more things I find very important:

 

  1. I pay close attention to market reaction to the news events, news are the market movers after all (central banks' rate policies being the most important). Technical analysis is a great tool, but no holly grail. If technical analysis says one thing and fundamentals another, I stand aside (sometimes saying buy the rumor, sell the fact works, but often it doesn't).
  2. I also monitor S&P500, Shanghai composite, DAX and USDollar index to get a feel of market sentiment (greed vs. risk aversion). In greedy times EUR and AUD, NZD tend to do well in flight to safe heaven JPY (nowdays) and USD usually appreciate. When I trade commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) I also look at copper (AUD), oil (CAD) and diary auction prices (NZD). For example: If oil prices are falling as they do now, no bearish technical signal (e.g. bearish divergence) will give you meaningful correction to the downside on USD/CAD.

  • #223
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  • Jan 18, 2016 6:10am Jan 18, 2016 6:10am
Interesting.

I treat all news events, apart from CB releases and press conferences, as noise that is, most of the time, to be faded or ignored. And that includes NFP.

Market correlations don't influence my trading either - I just trade my setups until I'm done.

Which makes me think of my morning prep, which I thought I'd share:

1. I take note of yesterday's high, low, and Globex close for DAX cash.

2. I read and reflect on the following 'obvious' things that all too easily get forgotten:


WAIT for the setups
TAKE the setups
Be CONFIDENT
Don't

  1. Try to be clever
  2. Try to read PA bar-by-bar and predict outcomes
  3. Get excited
  4. Get bored

When any one of the above is broken, QUIT

This takes very little time, so I'm usually at the screens less than half an hour before DAX cash open.

  • #224
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  • Jan 18, 2016 9:32am Jan 18, 2016 9:32am
The London open on the Dax is never easy, because you usually have to be very quick to leap into a fast moving market, something most people do not like doing, but because of the powerful moves as the pros at the exchanges pile into the market, it can be one of the most profitable time of day. That said, it can also be extremely predictable, and as long as you have a pretty good idea which way the price is likely to move at the open, it can be traded very effectively.

The most important thing to note is that there will almost always be some kind of a fake move, which can throw people out who have entered too early, send people the wrong way, or frighten people enough not to trade at all.

Attached is this morning's London open aggressive up move. First off, you have to determine which way you think the price is going to go at the open, and admittedly, this can be a bit of a gamble, but you do have to try. Personally, I determine this, and I am sometimes wrong like anyone else, by the positioning of my moving averages. There is no rule of thumb for this, as it depends very much on which ones people use, but this morning I had the 100sma come underneath the price on the 10m TF, and that had already supported the price once this morning just after 6am London time. Would it do so again? Also, the 3m 200ema/sma were both beneath my 20 exponential MA, adding to my directional bias.

There will be many people who claim that it is impossible to trade off a chart as small as 5 or 10 seconds, so let them have their opinion, but I do. The chart shown is the 5 sec TF. There is a powerful break out at the open, and if it had carried on up, I and no doubt many others would have missed this trade. But it didn't, it stopped, moved aggressively back to the 200ema, and then put in several successive positive candles. For me, once this major MA support is confirmed by the change of direction, it is safe to enter, and I always look for a signal candle which will usually be a hammer or a shooting star. My stop always goes beneath the Bollinger band, which here required a 15 pip SL. My exit was taken on the 15m 200ema, which sent the price back down.

Don't get me wrong, it is easy to get caught out with these trades around the London open because the price moves so quickly, but the risk/reward ration is fantastic, so I always try going for them if possible.
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  • #225
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  • Jan 18, 2016 10:00am Jan 18, 2016 10:00am
Thanks. I did catch some of that on 15M using MT4 charts. I am all thumbs so no chance of trading on 5 sec.
I know what to do.
  • #226
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  • Jan 18, 2016 10:04am Jan 18, 2016 10:04am
Quoting FxClown
Thanks. I did catch some of that on 15M using MT4 charts. I am all thumbs so no chance of trading on 5 sec.


There was also a very nice pin bar reversal candle on the 1m chart closing 08.02 if the second charts are too fat for you, though obviously, the required SL was much larger to get beneath the 1m Bollinger, though you can see just by looking at the strength of the candles following it, that this was the signal many people acted upon.
  • #227
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  • Jan 18, 2016 12:36pm Jan 18, 2016 12:36pm
Quoting FxClown
Thanks. I did catch some of that on 15M using MT4 charts. I am all thumbs so no chance of trading on 5 sec.
One way of overcoming that could be to use stop entries. I use nothing but. Not a single manual entry ever...well, long time ago. Limit entries are also a possibility. which some people prefer.

Admittedly, this can be a bit cumbersome in MT4, but works beautifully in MultiCharts, NinjaTrader, and ProRealTime - to name a few, where you can trade directly off the charts.
  • #228
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  • Jan 18, 2016 1:22pm Jan 18, 2016 1:22pm
Thanks to you guys for this thread. I like the flexibility of systems and style being promoted here and I am particularly impressed by the the insightful contributions of Cat and Medici.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #229
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  • Jan 18, 2016 4:29pm Jan 18, 2016 4:29pm
Quoting KeenPips
Thanks to you guys for this thread. I like the flexibility of systems and style being promoted here and I am particularly impressed by the the insightful contributions of Cat and Medici.
You're very welcome Mr KeenPips, I and hopefully others will continue to post stuff which may be of help to fellow traders, which is the main purpose of this thread.
  • #230
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  • Jan 18, 2016 5:49pm Jan 18, 2016 5:49pm
Quoting medici
{quote} One way of overcoming that could be to use stop entries. I use nothing but. Not a single manual entry ever...well, long time ago. Limit entries are also a possibility. which some people prefer. Admittedly, this can be a bit cumbersome in MT4, but works beautifully in MultiCharts, NinjaTrader, and ProRealTime - to name a few, where you can trade directly off the charts.
I have almost always entered trades manually. But, it is never too late to learn. Thank you.
I know what to do.
  • #231
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  • Jan 18, 2016 9:36pm Jan 18, 2016 9:36pm
Quoting cat
The idea behind this is to have one single thread where anyone here on Forex Factory can share ideas, tips, strategies, knowledge, anechdotes and experience for the benefit of others. You can post anything you like as long as it is designed to help others master the many facets necessary to become a successful trader, whether it be market knowledge or psychological hurdles that need to be overcome. This thread therefore is meant to compliment the interactive trading threads where traders call their trades and discuss levels etc, by concentrating...
One of the biggest irony and logic defying attitudes I have seen in this forum is I m always wondering why almost all the losing traders invariably behave and dishing out trading advices in the way as if they are actually profitable and successful. I am actually shocked and flummoxed by this ludicrous mindset becos this attitude and mindset is self destructive and it actually sabotaged their very own effort in becoming a better trader. Forex trading is a never ending learning process and even if one is already a accomplished trader in trading he may still need to learn about other technical and current affairs issues etc. so that he can always be ahead of the game. Lately I have learned to laugh and amuse myself at such attitudes but I still cant get my head around why it is happening and on such scale.

GS
  • #232
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  • Jan 18, 2016 11:28pm Jan 18, 2016 11:28pm
Agreed GS. Continuous learning, humility, discipline and strategic improvement play a crucial role in consistent profitability.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #233
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  • Jan 19, 2016 2:19am Jan 19, 2016 2:19am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} One of the biggest irony and logic defying attitudes I have seen in this forum is I m always wondering why almost all the losing traders invariably behave and dishing out trading advices in the way as if they are actually profitable and successful. I am actually shocked and flummoxed by this ludicrous mindset becos this attitude and mindset is self destructive and it actually sabotaged their very own effort in becoming a better trader. Forex trading is a never ending learning process and even if one is already a accomplished trader in trading...
A losing trader is often a bitter trader, unable to accept that where he/she is failing, others are succeeding, and you, with your great knowledge, tell the rest of us that trading is a never ending learning process, really genghister, I and others had no idea, now foolish of me to even attempt to pass some of my knowledge onto any one else, how futile and ignorant of me, though having read your wise post, I am now corrected of my misapprehension. Go take your worthless negativity elsewhere.
  • #234
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  • Jan 19, 2016 3:02am Jan 19, 2016 3:02am
Quoting cat
{quote} A losing trader is often a bitter trader, unable to accept that where he/she is failing, others are succeeding, and you, with your great knowledge, tell the rest of us that trading is a never ending learning process, really genghister, I and others had no idea, now foolish of me to even attempt to pass some of my knowledge onto any one else, how futile and ignorant of me, though having read your wise post, I am now corrected of my misapprehension. Go take your worthless negativity elsewhere.
Do you have any evidence to back up your assertion that I m a losing and a bitter trader?

GS
  • #235
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  • Jan 19, 2016 3:25am Jan 19, 2016 3:25am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Do you have any evidence to back up your assertion that I m a losing and a bitter trader? GS
I don't, neither do I care. If your only contribution to this thread, which is designed for traders to help each other, is to criticize me and others for attempting to do so, then you are not welcome here. In short, unless you have something constructive to say, get lost.
  • #236
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  • Jan 19, 2016 3:28am Jan 19, 2016 3:28am
Quoting cat
{quote} I don't, neither do I care. If your only contribution to this thread, which is designed for traders to help each other, is to criticize me and others for attempting to do so, then you are not welcome here. In short, unless you have something constructive to say, get lost.
Ok boss wilco you win.....I am out of here.

GS
  • #237
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  • Jan 19, 2016 4:04am Jan 19, 2016 4:04am
Quoting medici
{quote} Apologies for rant...
Accepted. Whilst I agree with you about Taleb's "celebrity" status I do however think there is some merit in his earlier works such as "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan", much like "Morally Bankrupt". And the video does include Daniel Kahneman as well!

IIRC Taleb's cunning money making plan involved buying lots of cheap options then waiting for one of those Black Swans to come along to deliver a profit. Not an approach that appeals to me I'm afraid.

My new book has arrived, but it will be a little while before I have time to read it from cover to cover. I'm too busy coding (and surfing) just at the moment!

Do you suppose black swans come in threes?
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  • #238
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  • Jan 19, 2016 5:23am Jan 19, 2016 5:23am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Ok boss wilco you win.....I am out of here. GS
Before you go, a few parting words if you don't mind. I think you're right. There's a lot of scammers and posers out there. What reason would you have to trust any of them? Only your own judgement. And that's how I hope you and everybody else engage with things posted anonymously on forums like this one - at face value, using your own judgement.

A less useful way of engaging would be to invest too much into whether a person behind some anonymous avatar is a hero or villain, or somewhere in between. Ultimately, you only know their posts, and their possible value as such. There are threads here where people who have invested in some FF 'guru' share their disappointment. IMHO the people there are learning about their own gullibility and failure to take responsibility for themselves - nothing else. Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur.

From your post it seems like you still worry a good bit about things you do not, and cannot, know about. If you really were true to your word of always learning, why would you do that? So I hope you can focus on your learning and point us in the direction of your findings, and maybe somebody will benefit from it.

Speaking for myself, forum participation was initially out of a sense of gratitude for what the market had given me, and I felt like sharing with others. Also, trading is a lonely occupation, and it can be challenging to sit behind the screens without any human interaction. Then I grew tired of it, primarily because of the preponderance of immature people. But I met one person that I collaborated with offline to create a stunning strategy, and a few that I've kept in touch with, and some I've met in person on several occasions. And I have a private website where I provide some assistance to invitees, including working strategies for participants to backtest for themselves. Then that grew a bit quiet, and here I am for the same reasons as stated above.

Good luck to you.
  • #239
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  • Edited 6:06am Jan 19, 2016 5:56am | Edited 6:06am
Quoting TradingGurus
{quote} Accepted. Whilst I agree with you about Taleb's "celebrity" status I do however think there is some merit in his earlier works such as "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan", much like "Morally Bankrupt". And the video does include Daniel Kahneman as well!
I suffered through Fooled By Randomness - an experience which solidified the sentiment expressed above... What do you like about the books?

Quote
IIRC Taleb's cunning money making plan involved buying lots of cheap options then waiting for one of those Black Swans to come along to deliver a profit. Not an approach that appeals to me I'm afraid.

Agree, and so does any sound, risk-adjusted, evaluation measure. Very low Sharpe ratio, spending most of the time in drawdown

Quote
My new book has arrived, but it will be a little while before I have time to read it from cover to cover. I'm too busy coding (and surfing) just at the moment!

Aww, surfing Not much water around here, but plenty of nature to walk in

Quote
Do you suppose black swans come in threes? {image}

They do:
- Iran announces 500k bbl/day
- China economic growth at a 25 year low
- Energy and Finance sectors hit by oil glut

And as usual the response is - I fades em all

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  • #240
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  • Jan 19, 2016 7:37am Jan 19, 2016 7:37am
[quote=medici;8697812]{quote} Before you go, a few parting words if you don't mind. I think you're right. There's a lot of scammers and posers out there. What reason would you have to trust any of them? Only your own judgement....

and that is entirely as it should be. However, to assume, as this poster has done, that anyone who shares their knowledge on this forum is not worthy to do so, negates the entire reason for visiting the forum in the first place. Forums are a place for like minded people, in this case pursuing the same occupation, to engage, perhaps learn a little, and give in return. To merely criticize non constructively demonstrated, to me anyway, a pettiness for which I have neither the spirit not desire to engage, which is why I gave him such short shrift.

People here are well aware of the presence of scammers, posers or shall we say 'embellishers' here on ff , because a forum such as this, with so many people desperate to learn how to trade, will be a magnet for them. Therefore, as individuals, it is up to each and everyone of us to find for ourselves that which we find helpful or merely entertaining, and that which we don't. If we like something, we engage and we subscribe, and If we don't, then we pass it by or maybe take up issue if there is reason enough, and I for one would be more than happy to discuss with anyone anything relating to any of my posts, so long as it goes beyond the mere fact that the post exists in the first place.

And now back to the business at hand.
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