Iran's coming back online shortly. The World Bank estimates that Iran production will affect oil prices to the tune of $10/bbl by the end of next year, which kind of spells $20/bbl oil. http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-w...be-implemented Naturally, that assumes a lot, namely that everyone keeps trundling along at current production and consumption levels -- particularly the Saudis, but I think we'll be between $20 and $40 for the foreseeable future.
OPEC forecast $80 oil by 2020 in September, http://www.reuters.com/article/opec-...11N44T20150917 My thinking, though, is that OPEC is no longer the cohesive entity it once was; the Saudis are now largely in control of the market and $80/bbl isn't consistent with driving shale oil out of the market and keeping it out ... . If the Saudis don't want $80/bbl, OPEC will not get it.
I'm playing it, but playing it small with a longer-term horizon in mind and will probably bail at the first whiff of USO $12. After all, this ain't the only game in town to play in this market ... .
OPEC forecast $80 oil by 2020 in September, http://www.reuters.com/article/opec-...11N44T20150917 My thinking, though, is that OPEC is no longer the cohesive entity it once was; the Saudis are now largely in control of the market and $80/bbl isn't consistent with driving shale oil out of the market and keeping it out ... . If the Saudis don't want $80/bbl, OPEC will not get it.
I'm playing it, but playing it small with a longer-term horizon in mind and will probably bail at the first whiff of USO $12. After all, this ain't the only game in town to play in this market ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
